_Ghost_

Well Japan's defeat at the hands of Iraq yesterday has really set the cat amongst the pigeons.. Iraq need only a point against Vietnam to top the group thus catapulting Japan into the bottom half of the draw and in 90 minutes they've gone from having a soft looking route to glory to arguably the worst! They now look set to meet South Korea in L16 and Iran in the QF - yes that's the top 3 in the betting in the same quarter taking out over 70% of the market!
I'm adding Australia and Saudi Arabia to the portfolio - I see the winner of a potential QF between the 2 making the final.
One final note I'll be keeping an eye on the Iran v UAE match in a few days.. a victory for UAE will see them top the group and Iran will land in the top half of the draw which may not be a bad thing, in which case i'll be topping up on Iranians outright.
Bets
0.5pts Australia to win Outright @ 9/1 (Betway)
0.5pts Saudi Arabia to win Outright @ 12/1 (Betway)

Still a couple of games to go before we wrap up the first round of fixtures but changes aplenty in the projected bracket; the draw has gone against Ivory Coast and you have to feel for Mali, wherever they end up they're going to play one of the "top 8". I've had half a point on Morocco after what looked a tough route to the final initially seems to be opening up.
Bet
0.5pts Morocco to win Outright @ 9/2 (Various)

Still a couple of games to go before we wrap up the first round of fixtures but changes aplenty in the projected bracket; the draw has gone against Ivory Coast and you have to feel for Mali, wherever they end up they're going to play one of the "top 8". I've had half a point on Morocco after what looked a tough route to the final initially seems to be opening up.
Bet
0.5pts Morocco to win Outright @ 9/2 (Various)

The state of play after 1 completed round of matches...


Oman's defeat yesterday coupled with Thailands victory now see's a projected 3rd place finish and a tie with Japan in L16 for outside pick Oman - a victory over Thailand on Sunday with Kyrgystan to come should be enough for 2nd place finish and back in the lower section of the draw.
Japan still look to have a kind run until a potential meeting with Australia/ Saudi Arabia in the Semis. Iran and South Korea still set for a Quarter Final showdown with the bottom section of the draw looking the most open, Qatar should progress from their L16 tie where they'll meet Uzbekistan or hopefully Oman.

The 2024 edition of the African Cup of Nations kicks off in the Ivory Coast this Saturday evening.
Current Odds

Tournament Averages since 2002 (corners since 2013)

AFCON Quarter Finalists since 2002

Competitive Records v (current) Top 100 FIFA Ranked Nations since International football resumed during the pandemic

Outright Projections

Name the Finalists/ Straight Forecast

Group and Knockout Projections

Bets
1pt Ivory Coast to win Outright @ 7/1 (Various) 
The last 7 renewals have produced 7 different winners shows just how open this tournament is I'm in agreement with the market and don't have much at all between the top 7/8 teams in the betting. Looking at how the projected draw shapes up I like the path the winner of Group A has; 3rd place team in the L16 then likely Ghana/ DR Congo in the QF, which ever if those sides progresses will likely be the lowest rated side in the Quarters (pending any upsets) before a Semi-Final showdown with the reigning Champions Senegal. It's the Ivory Coast with their home advantage who get the nod to top Group A over Nigeria.
I usually like to have an outsider on side but looking at the projected draw any outsider is likely going to have to beat 4 of the top sides in the knockouts and i just can't see any of them doing so. I will of course be keeping a close eye on things and if the draw opens up along the way
 

Take the 20/1 available about Athletic Blibao - only Real Madrid (travel to Atletico Madrid) and Barcelona better on my ratings

The 2023 edition of the Asian Cup kicks off in the Qatar this Friday.
Current Odds

Tournament Averages since 2011

Asian Cup Quarter Finalists since 2000

Competitive Records v (current) Top 100 FIFA Ranked Nations since International football resumed during the pandemic

Outright Projections

Name the Finalists/ Straight Forecast

Group and Knockout Projections

Bets
1pt Iran to win Outright @ 7/1 (Various)
0.25pts Oman to win Outright @ 50/1 (Various)
Japan are the rightful favourites for me but I can let them win at 5/2. The 4 time champions have a straight forward looking group and are projected a kind route to the Semi-Final. I'll be focusing my attention on the bottom half of the draw which brings me to Iran. The Iranians are favourites to top their group which will land them a L16 tie with a 3rd placed side, they're projected to face South Korea in QF and I would fancy the winner of this tie to make the final, I wouldn't put anybody off backing the Koreans but I prefer Iran as there are a couple of (albeit unlikely) scenarios which could see South Korea run into Japan or Saudi Arabia in the L16. The last section of the draw looks particularly weak, however my pick for an Outsider would be Oman who should back up Saudi Arabia in Group F leading to a L16 tie with fellow group runners up Uzbekistan (the market favors the Uzbeks FYI). Hosts Qatar or 3rd place team await in QF before potentially Iran/ South Korea in a semi.

Take the 20/1 available about Athletic Blibao - only Real Madrid (travel to Atletico Madrid) and Barcelona better on my ratings

The 2024 edition of the African Cup of Nations kicks off in the Ivory Coast this Saturday evening.
Current Odds

Tournament Averages since 2002 (corners since 2013)

AFCON Quarter Finalists since 2002

Competitive Records v (current) Top 100 FIFA Ranked Nations since International football resumed during the pandemic

Outright Projections

Name the Finalists/ Straight Forecast

Group and Knockout Projections

Bets
1pt Ivory Coast to win Outright @ 7/1 (Various) 
The last 7 renewals have produced 7 different winners shows just how open this tournament is I'm in agreement with the market and don't have much at all between the top 7/8 teams in the betting. Looking at how the projected draw shapes up I like the path the winner of Group A has; 3rd place team in the L16 then likely Ghana/ DR Congo in the QF, which ever if those sides progresses will likely be the lowest rated side in the Quarters (pending any upsets) before a Semi-Final showdown with the reigning Champions Senegal. It's the Ivory Coast with their home advantage who get the nod to top Group A over Nigeria.
I usually like to have an outsider on side but looking at the projected draw any outsider is likely going to have to beat 4 of the top sides in the knockouts and i just can't see any of them doing so. I will of course be keeping a close eye on things and if the draw opens up along the way
 

The 2023 edition of the Asian Cup kicks off in the Qatar this Friday.
Current Odds

Tournament Averages since 2011

Asian Cup Quarter Finalists since 2000

Competitive Records v (current) Top 100 FIFA Ranked Nations since International football resumed during the pandemic

Outright Projections

Name the Finalists/ Straight Forecast

Group and Knockout Projections

Bets
1pt Iran to win Outright @ 7/1 (Various)
0.25pts Oman to win Outright @ 50/1 (Various)
Japan are the rightful favourites for me but I can let them win at 5/2. The 4 time champions have a straight forward looking group and are projected a kind route to the Semi-Final. I'll be focusing my attention on the bottom half of the draw which brings me to Iran. The Iranians are favourites to top their group which will land them a L16 tie with a 3rd placed side, they're projected to face South Korea in QF and I would fancy the winner of this tie to make the final, I wouldn't put anybody off backing the Koreans but I prefer Iran as there are a couple of (albeit unlikely) scenarios which could see South Korea run into Japan or Saudi Arabia in the L16. The last section of the draw looks particularly weak, however my pick for an Outsider would be Oman who should back up Saudi Arabia in Group F leading to a L16 tie with fellow group runners up Uzbekistan (the market favors the Uzbeks FYI). Hosts Qatar or 3rd place team await in QF before potentially Iran/ South Korea in a semi.

Douglas Luiz is 17/2 (Bet365) to score anytime tomorrow for Aston Villa away at Burnley - took a penalty last week v Everton and again in midweek v Hibs with Watkins on the pitch both times. Villa generally around the 6/1 mark to score a penalty.
Also available at 2/1 for a shot on target (also Bet365)

Thanks to @harry_rag some great insight posted throughout the tournament - we go again in 4 years!

First draft of my season projections;

The final field of 32 was set with Costa Ricas' victory over New Zealand yesterday, I've been working on some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model today - prices available for the first round of matches and the majority of the second in which case they have superseded my match ratings.


Advised Bet(s) - I like to do a NAP (2pts), NB (1pt), Outsider (0.50pts) and a Long Shot (0.25pts) totaling 3.75pts outlay but I like both my main selections
1.50pts Argentina to win the World Cup @ 9/1
1.50pts Germany to win the World Cup @ 12/1
0.50pts Senegal to win he World Cup @ 80/1
0.25pts Morocco to win the World Cup @ 250/1
 

Latest 8 match and season to date ratings as well as projections;

The final field of 32 was set with Costa Ricas' victory over New Zealand yesterday, I've been working on some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model today - prices available for the first round of matches and the majority of the second in which case they have superseded my match ratings.


Advised Bet(s) - I like to do a NAP (2pts), NB (1pt), Outsider (0.50pts) and a Long Shot (0.25pts) totaling 3.75pts outlay but I like both my main selections
1.50pts Argentina to win the World Cup @ 9/1
1.50pts Germany to win the World Cup @ 12/1
0.50pts Senegal to win he World Cup @ 80/1
0.25pts Morocco to win the World Cup @ 250/1
 

Everton look in a diabolical shape at both ends at the minute and my ratings highlight a resurgent Newcastle as the value tonight at around 9/4

P - Played
Pts - Points so far
F - Expected goals for
A - Expected goals against
GD - Expected goal difference
Prj - Raw Projected points
Adj - Adjusted points (based on historical points averages)
MLS - MLS Cup winner odds
SS - Supporters Shield winner odds
Div - Divisional/ Conference winner odds
#1S - Number 1 seed odds
TQ - To Qualify for the play off odds

Pre-season projections:

Pre-season projections:

Conference Championships this weekend.. latest tissue..

Name the finalists..

Straight forecast..

 
 

Latest Bracket...

Name the finalists grid...

Tournament stats..

Nation 4Y and 2Y data..

I'm afraid not - rugby union a sport I don't even retain a passing interest in

Must admit i was expecting sub 2/1 quotes, managed to get 2/1, 11/5 and 2/1 - not that it mattered in the end 

Usual tactic for international tournement knockout rounds - play the draw.
27/88 KO matches since 2003 have ended all square; 3 of the 8 L16 matches last time out too.
The draw in the Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Guinea matches in a trixie to kick things off for me.
Will probably do the Tuesday/ Wednesday ,matches in a yankee.
Swerving Cameroon v Comoros due to the Comoros camp having covid.