_Ghost_

My shots ratings/ data for the season so far (does not include Porto v Maritimo from last night)

Thoughts
No surprises at the head of the market with the big 6 dominating the betting, however, I am willing to strike a line though all of those at the moment with a view to making one or two of them no loss as the tournement progresses. I have various reasons for striking a line through them, detailed below;
Chelsea - Current league leaders (3rd on my shots ratings), Only 3 sides since the turn of the century have completed the league and cup double, their priority is obviously the title. If it looks like Chelsea have the title sewn up anytime soon, I will look to make these no loss.
Liverpool - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the EFL Cup semi-final
Man City - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the Champions League latter stages
Arsenal - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the Champions League latter stages, They have won 2 of the 3 runnings, but their top 4 spot has been more secure in years past than it looks this season
Tottenham - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot and in the Europa League latter stages
Man Utd - In the title race, need to solidfy top 4 spot, EFL Cup semi-final and in the Europa League latter stages
I'm also willing to rule out Leicester, whose priorities will be Champions League and Premier League survival.
Relegation candidates whose priority will be survival I'll put a line through are Burnley (currently midtable I know but given their away form is so poor every home game is cup final for them, Watford, Boro, Palace,Sunderland, Swansea and Hull.
After alot of crossing out I'm left with a shortlist of 6 teams who I feel stand the best chance of having a good, solid cup run - Everton, Southampton, West Ham, Bournemouth, Stoke & West Brom.
Everton are a side I like, they rank 8th on my shots ratings and have a decent enough recent record in the competition in recent years without actually winning it.
Southampton, again perform well on my ratings (7th) but they are struggling to score goals lately and they look to be regressing in recent weeks.
West Ham, can't put anybody off West Ham, average on ratings only 7 points above relegation but can't see them getting sucked into a scrap, 5th round and a Quarter final last couple of years and one to keep an eye on.
Bournemouth, again can't put anybody off Bournemouth, average on ratings but 10 points above relegtaion - my only concern is that they're abit soft defencely.
Stoke, similar to above, average on ratings but shouldn't need to worry about relegation
West Brom, you know the script, average on ratings, don't need to worry about relegation, the last two seasons they have been to the 5th round and Quarter Finals, Tony Pulis took a Stoke team of similar profile to the final in 2011
Selections
Everton to win the FA Cup @ 25/1 0.5 points each way
West Brom to win the FA Cup @ 66/1 0.5 points each way
 

I'm more concerned with raw statistics rather than teams style of play, generally speaking the better the side the more likely they are to do more attacking which in turn leads to more shots/ corners, cards on the other hand the worse the side the more time they will spend defending without the ball and likely to commit more fouls. There's always statistical anomalies and thats where the value usually lies - Everton at home for example, before last nights game there was only Arsenal and Man City averaging more corners for in their home matches (dropped below Spurs after last night), Arsenal and City home corner lines are typically 6.5/ 7.5, last nights Everton was 4.5, I though the line should have been 5.5 and backed accordingly, it turned out to be a losing bet but I had placed the same bet on the same line in their home matches v Man Utd and Arsenal recently (both winners).
 

@StevieDay1983 I keep my eye on corner and card lines, the excellent Football-Data spreadhseets make it easy enough to manipulate the data and highlight any trends, I only tend to bet when I think the line is wrong rather the odds and there's usually only a handful of opportunities per week.

Below are my ratings for Brazilian Serie A and Argentina Primera, I've also included my tissue prices and KPI comparisons, I'd normally be on half stakes last 4 weeks of the season anyway but I won't be touching the Brazilian action at all after recent events. FYI it's River v Boca on Sunday night

I like the Rapids to pick up the W tomorrow, they're 8/11 on my tissue so take some of William Hills 23/20.

I'll be taking some of the 1/1 about Perth Glory, my early shots data makes Central Coast the worst side in the league by some margin, the away side are 1/2 on my tissue.

Below is a snapshot of my ratings and a tissue (available odds) for the Conference Finals, I'm hoping for a Colorado v Toronto final, both of those sides lead their opposition in the majority of my ratings;

Below is my tissue/ stats for the first leg of the Conference Semi Finals


Again compared to the 365 prices above the bookies seem to have these matches priced correctly. As you can see NYRB are better than Montreal on all 10 of my KPIs whilst Dallas better Seattle in 8 out of 10, I won't be getting involved in any match betting though as I don't deem the prices value but I expect these two sides to progress. LA Galaxy and Colorado look set for a war of attrition over the next week and a winner looks difficult to call. I'm hoping Toronto can progress from their tie with NYC, I wouldn't put anybody of backing Toronto to win the MLS Cup at 9/1 given how the overall picture looks...

 

First things first, a quick about me
I was previously a semi-active poster on these boards a few years (under a different username), I’ve decided the time is now right to make my (hopefully) triumphant return. I intend to be posting picks/ discussion topics on a regular basis that will mostly be football and boxing with the odd rugby league and NFL post. The majority of the material I post will be stats/ value based. I’m also hoping to up my activity on Twitter so feel free to follow @jamiedavies02
Now that’s the intro out of the way…
MLS Cup Play Offs 2016
Points to note - The Western Conference winner has won 15 of the last 20 MLS Cups, including the last 7 and 10 of the last 11. During the 2016 season there have been 100 inter-conference matches, when a Western team has hosted an Eastern team their record is 28-15-7 and when an Eastern team has hosted a Weastern team it's 25-15-10, West has the overall lead with a 38-30-32 record.
FC Dallas, Colorado, NY Red Bull and New York City are advanced to the Conference Semi Finals due to their league position, all other sides start in the knockout round.
Below is my shots ratings and data for the teams involved in the play offs fromt the regular season (key also included - any questions please ask) and the latest outright odds.

I compile my own tissue prices and in my opinion the bookies have these first round of matches priced correctly. As the odds suggest Toronto should progress comfortably, I think DC outperform Montreal on pretty much all my KPIs above and should progress, if there's going to be an upset Sporting Kansas could be the one, I'm also keen to oppose the Galaxy over the course of the playoffs but maybe not tonight

First things first, a quick about me
I was previously a semi-active poster on these boards a few years (under a different username), I’ve decided the time is now right to make my (hopefully) triumphant return. I intend to be posting picks/ discussion topics on a regular basis that will mostly be football and boxing with the odd rugby league and NFL post. The majority of the material I post will be stats/ value based. I’m also hoping to up my activity on Twitter so feel free to follow @jamiedavies02
Now that’s the intro out of the way…
MLS Cup Play Offs 2016
Points to note - The Western Conference winner has won 15 of the last 20 MLS Cups, including the last 7 and 10 of the last 11. During the 2016 season there have been 100 inter-conference matches, when a Western team has hosted an Eastern team their record is 28-15-7 and when an Eastern team has hosted a Weastern team it's 25-15-10, West has the overall lead with a 38-30-32 record.
FC Dallas, Colorado, NY Red Bull and New York City are advanced to the Conference Semi Finals due to their league position, all other sides start in the knockout round.
Below is my shots ratings and data for the teams involved in the play offs fromt the regular season (key also included - any questions please ask) and the latest outright odds.

I compile my own tissue prices and in my opinion the bookies have these first round of matches priced correctly. As the odds suggest Toronto should progress comfortably, I think DC outperform Montreal on pretty much all my KPIs above and should progress, if there's going to be an upset Sporting Kansas could be the one, I'm also keen to oppose the Galaxy over the course of the playoffs but maybe not tonight

First things first, a quick about me
I was previously a semi-active poster on these boards a few years (under a different username), I’ve decided the time is now right to make my (hopefully) triumphant return. I intend to be posting picks/ discussion topics on a regular basis that will mostly be football and boxing with the odd rugby league and NFL post. The majority of the material I post will be stats/ value based. I’m also hoping to up my activity on Twitter so feel free to follow @jamiedavies02
Now that’s the intro out of the way…
MLS Cup Play Offs 2016
Points to note - The Western Conference winner has won 15 of the last 20 MLS Cups, including the last 7 and 10 of the last 11. During the 2016 season there have been 100 inter-conference matches, when a Western team has hosted an Eastern team their record is 28-15-7 and when an Eastern team has hosted a Weastern team it's 25-15-10, West has the overall lead with a 38-30-32 record.
FC Dallas, Colorado, NY Red Bull and New York City are advanced to the Conference Semi Finals due to their league position, all other sides start in the knockout round.
Below is my shots ratings and data for the teams involved in the play offs fromt the regular season (key also included - any questions please ask) and the latest outright odds.