_Ghost_

90 mins only

Euros data since 1996

*Noticed an error with the TR (Total Red) - should be half what it is showing, TC (Total Cards) and TBk (Total Booking Points) are ok

I'm going to play the trends here - since 1995 there have been 40 QF ties in the Copa America with 15 (37.5%) of those finishing in draws. 
Bet
All 4 QF ties to be draws - 0.25pt Yankee (Total Outlay 2.75pts)

I swerved the R16 given only 1 tournaments worth of data, 2 draws in 8 in 2016, was just watching brief for me. Now 6 in 16 so may be a round to pick your battles in in future renewals
 

Same bet here for me as the Copa America QFs - 10 of 24 Euro QF finals since1996 have ended all square (6 0-0s and 4 1-1s)
Bet
All 4 QF ties to be draws - 0.25pt Yankee (Total Outlay 2.75pts)

Villarreal (SPA) v Man Utd (ENG)
9Y - Spanish Clubs
Won 6/9
Finalists 7/18
Semi-Finalists 12/38
9Y - English Clubs   Won 3/9 Finalists 5/18 Semi-Finalists 8/38   England and Spain have provided the last 9 winners
12/18 Finalists
20/38 Semi-Finalist   20Y - Europa League/ UEFA Cup Finals Trends 3.40 average goals
6/20 Drawn
2/20 Under 1.5 (1/20 0-0)
13/20 Over 2.5
10/20 Over 3.5
12/20 BTTS
20Y - European Final Trends
3.13 average goals
13/40 Drawn
4/40 Under 1.5 (2/40 0-0)
24/40 Over 2.5
16/40 Over 3.5
27/40 BTTS
Nation H2H (4Y Cycle of Europa League ONLY matchups)
Spain lead 76-32-20-24
1.21 - 1.20 for a supremacy of 0.01
24/76 Under 1.5
37/76 Over 2.5
20/76 Over 3.5
34/76 BTTS
Villarreal (4Y Europa League record)
33-19-9-5
Sup 0.82
Pythagorean Rating 0.68
PpG 2.00
Man Utd 4Y Europa League record)   20-12-5-3 Sup 1.50 Pythagorean Rating 0.68 PpG 2.05   Spain 4Y Europa League record   135-72-30-33 Sup 0.68 Pythagorean Rating 0.65 1.82 PpG   England 4Y Europa League record   121-74-23-24 Sup 1.18 Pythagorean Rating 0.73 2.02 PpG   Domestic Ratings           Advised Bet   0.75pts - Over 3.5 Goals @ 16/5 Betvictor 0.35pts - Man Utd 2-1 @ 8/1 Betvictor 0.20pts - Man Utd 3-1 @ 15/1 Betvictor 0.20pts - Draw 2-2 @ 17/1 Betvictor  

Villarreal (SPA) v Man Utd (ENG)
9Y - Spanish Clubs
Won 6/9
Finalists 7/18
Semi-Finalists 12/38
9Y - English Clubs   Won 3/9 Finalists 5/18 Semi-Finalists 8/38   England and Spain have provided the last 9 winners
12/18 Finalists
20/38 Semi-Finalist   20Y - Europa League/ UEFA Cup Finals Trends 3.40 average goals
6/20 Drawn
2/20 Under 1.5 (1/20 0-0)
13/20 Over 2.5
10/20 Over 3.5
12/20 BTTS
20Y - European Final Trends
3.13 average goals
13/40 Drawn
4/40 Under 1.5 (2/40 0-0)
24/40 Over 2.5
16/40 Over 3.5
27/40 BTTS
Nation H2H (4Y Cycle of Europa League ONLY matchups)
Spain lead 76-32-20-24
1.21 - 1.20 for a supremacy of 0.01
24/76 Under 1.5
37/76 Over 2.5
20/76 Over 3.5
34/76 BTTS
Villarreal (4Y Europa League record)
33-19-9-5
Sup 0.82
Pythagorean Rating 0.68
PpG 2.00
Man Utd 4Y Europa League record)   20-12-5-3 Sup 1.50 Pythagorean Rating 0.68 PpG 2.05   Spain 4Y Europa League record   135-72-30-33 Sup 0.68 Pythagorean Rating 0.65 1.82 PpG   England 4Y Europa League record   121-74-23-24 Sup 1.18 Pythagorean Rating 0.73 2.02 PpG   Domestic Ratings           Advised Bet   0.75pts - Over 3.5 Goals @ 16/5 Betvictor 0.35pts - Man Utd 2-1 @ 8/1 Betvictor 0.20pts - Man Utd 3-1 @ 15/1 Betvictor 0.20pts - Draw 2-2 @ 17/1 Betvictor  

Champions League final day and I can't let Chelsea go unbacked, unsuccessfully went after Barcelona in the semi final v PSG but we go again here.
English Teams record in the WCL since 13/14: P87 54-10-23-181-83-98 with a rating of 0.72
Spanish teams over the same period : P74 43-10-21-135-78-57 with a rating of 0.66
Chelsea in the WCL over a 3 year period: P16 11-2-3-44-10-34 with a rating of 0.86
Barcelona in the WCL over the same period: P 23 18-1-4-56-16-40 with a rating of 0.82
Bet
2pt - Chelsea to win the WCL Outright @ 2/1
1pt - Chelsea to win in 90 mins @ 16/5 

Any chance I could change my name to jamied02?

Brighton are 5/1 tomorrow to beat Everton, my tissue has them around the 10/3 mark. Brighton have won 4 on the spin including a 2-1 away win at Chelsea. For context the hosts were 15/8 for this contest last season (won 1-0) and 5/6 in 2018/19 (drew 0-0). For me there's definitely abit of juice in this price.
Bet
Brighton to beat Everton @ 5/1 (Betfair/ Betfred)

Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.

Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.

Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.

Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.

Here's my weekend tissue - Q is the quality of the match, basically the mean of the 2 sides ratings. As teams are rated between 0-1, the match quality will also be between 0-1, the higher the better.

First post in what feels like forever, here's my tissue for the L1 and L2 tonight;

Bet365 have gone back up with Istanbul Basaksehir at 12/1 for the outright after the weekends results - this is completely the wrong price. Basaksehir won 1-0 away at league favs Galatasaray on Friday night, Pinnacles closing prices for this match suggest that if the two teams met on a neutral ground that Basaksehir would be favs, implying the market rates them the better team. Galatasaray are as short as 6/4 with 365 despite being rated worse than Basaksehir and having amassed fewer points thus far which makes absolutely no sense. It looks as though they've priced this market on reputation only. Basaksehir have finished 4-2-3-2 in the last 4 seasons so it's not like they're coming from nowhere

Roughly 1/3 of the way through the season... here's my projected table:

3 teams stand out for me at the current prices...
Senegal are my NAP and are available at 7/1 - since the start of this season 32 players have made it on to the pitch in Senegal's international matches, of those 32, 25 (78%) are within peak age ranges (21-24 early peak, 25-28 peak) with 26 (81%) playing in the top 10 European leagues, breaking this down even further 22 of those are playing in an elite league (Prem, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga), further more 18 (56%) fall into the peak age ranges AND playing in an elite league. For what it's worth they are also the top African team on FIFA rankings. Senegal should be favourites for me
My N.B. is Ivory Coast who are inexplicably 13/1 with Paddy Power - they may not have the star power of years gone by but 65% of the 20 players to feature this season are playing in the top 10 European leagues, 75% fall into the peak age ranges with 50% peak age and playing in an elite league.
There is one more nation who I feel can't be ignored at current prices and that is Algeria who are 19/1 again with Patrick. Their peak age and players playing in elite/ top european league numbers may not be as fancy as Senegal or Ivory Coast but they have enough quality in their squad and deserve more respect
Bet
2pts - Senegal to win the African Cup of Nations @ 7/1 (Bet365)
1pts - Ivory Coast to win the African Cup of Nations @ 13/1 (Paddy Power)
0.5pts - Algeria to win the African Cup of Nations @ 19/1 (Paddy Power)
 

Firstly, I must stress that I have had nothing more than a passing glance at this tournement - that being said I think I may have found a speculative, value bet for the Outright. Barcelona are set to play in the Champions League final in a couple of weeks - off that Barcelona team, 12 of them have recently been included in Spanish squads, Barcelona have form beyond this season in the Champions League too - they were Quarter Finalists last year and Semi Finalists the year before. Atletico Madrid were the only side to finish above Barcelona domestically this season, they also boast 10 recent call ups. I'm going to take a chance that the performance of those 2 clubs haven't been reflected in Spain's Outright price. A similar thing happened in the Mens Euro 2020 betting - as Ajax performed above expectations in the Champions League and the emergence of young Dutch talent such as De Ligt, De Jong and Van De Beek, the price of Holland for Euro 2020 began to fall.
Bet
1pt - Spain to win the Women's World Cup @ 25/1 Bet365

The results of 5,000 sims of this season based on ratings derived from Asian Handicaps (50%), expected goals (30%) and actual goals (20%)

River take on Boca in the 2nd leg of this years final - 1st leg finished 2-2 (away goals DO NOT count. Below are my Argentine ratings for the season to date;

 

Bristol City +0.75 at around 2.00 worth chancing away at Leeds. Both my STR and xG ratings slightly favour Bristol City. In a Championship match between two sides of equal ability (ie separated by home advantage) the away side should be priced at around 3.50 so for me the value lies with the visitors

Basically reflects as if it was a league table; yellow = champions, orange = automatic promotion, green = play offs and red = relegation

Expected Goals For / (Expected Goals For + Expected Goals Against)