_Ghost_

Q = Quality of match, nothing fancy just the average of the two teams in questions ratings

My tissue for tonight...

At the prices my bet at this stage would have to Dallas at around 12/1
 

At the prices my bet at this stage would have to Dallas at around 12/1
 

The curtain came down on the regular season last weekend with the play-offs due to commencing this coming Saturday.
Play Off Bracket (with Tissue prices)


4 Match Ratings

8 Match Ratings

12 Match Ratings

16 Match Ratings

Play Off Match Tissues

The curtain came down on the regular season last weekend with the play-offs due to commencing this coming Saturday.
Play Off Bracket (with Tissue prices)


4 Match Ratings

8 Match Ratings

12 Match Ratings

16 Match Ratings

Play Off Match Tissues

Using all the stats and resources above, as well as taking into account the squads and managers of each nation, I've put together some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model which has spat out the below prices (prices capped at 1000.00):

Recommended Bets
2pts Morocco to win Outright @ 10/1 (Skybet)
1pt Mali to win Outright @ 25/1 (Skybet)

The 2021 (2022) renewal of the African Cup of Nations kicks off this Sunday in Cameroon. Here is Bet365s latest outright odds;

 

Didn't follow on that. Was on the brink of taking a profit juts before the equaliser (I hardly ever close out) but ended up having to suffer the anxiety of extra time and pens. Thanks for the original recommendation.

It's the MLS Cup Final on Saturday evening as Portland Timbers take on NYCFC.
My pre-match tissue has the side from New York as slight favourites;


I've backdated my ratings to after the final round of the regular season, at which stage I would have made Portland 19.53 for MLS glory and NYCFC 15.11. A name the finalists bet would have been 90.02.
MLS Cup Final Trends (since 1996)
9/25 draws, 4 matches going to a penalty shoot out
2.48 average goals
15/25 BTTS
5/25 Under 1.5
10/25 Over 2.5
6/25 Over 3.5
6/25 finished 1-1
MLS Single-Leg Tie Trends (including finals, since 2012)
13/71 draws, 11 matches going to a penalty shootout
3.07 average goals
43/71 BTTS
11/71 Under 1.5
45/71 Over 2.5
25/71 Over 3.5
14/71 finished 2-1 either way
11/71 finished 3-1 either way
West v East (since 2012)
177W-96D-65L
1.81 goals for with 1.16 goals against - a GD of +0.65
Home advantage across the entire MLS is worth around 0.55, therefore Western sides hosting Eastern sides is worth an extra 0.10 of a goal.
The collection of stats/ data below are taken over the last 24 regular season matches only;
Match Stats

xG Stats

Shots Stats

Shots on Target Stats

Head to Head

Final Thoughts
I'm on NYCFC Outright at 20/1 (see outright thread) so won't be getting too involved on the day. I do think there is some mileage in a 1-1 correct score, I'll stick half a point on that at 7.00
 

Some stats ahead of today's 2nd round (played, average, legs won ratio, 180's p/l)

Some stats ahead of today's 2nd round (played, average, legs won ratio, 180's p/l)

I've had 1 point on South Sydney to win the NRL Grand Final - they sit 3rd on my ratings and I make them around 23/10 for outright glory. They are currently 17/2 best price. The Rabbitohs have been beaten at the Preliminary Final (effectively a semi final) stage for the last 3 seasons.

Well done. Thought to myself that the draw was interesting at 11/4 but didn't pursue it. No joy on the cards front with just 2 yellows but Moreno scored at a decent price and Alcacer was void.

Season to date xG, total shots and shots on target ratios:



Current projected play off picture:

Thoughts
NYCFC top all 3 stats based tables above, my match ratings have them around the 11/2 mark for MLS Cup glory. Hills go 20/1 which for me is too big to ignore. Transfer Markt have their average player value as 4th highest in the league whilst their total player vlaue comes out in 3rd; this to me suggests they should be there or thereabouts and the stats more than back this up.
Bet
1.00pt - NYCFC To Win The MLS Cup - 20/1 @ William Hill

Not strictly the Champions League but thought this the best place for it...

Chelsea (ENG) v Villarreal (SPA)   Final Trends (since 2000-01)   ENG won 3/21 (losing 5 finals) SPA won 12/21 (losing 7 finals) 14/21 won by UCL winner 9/21 drawn 3.00 average goals 2/21 <2 goals 11/21 >2 7/21 >3 15/21 BTTS 5/21 finished 1-1   England UCL/ UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y)   290-171-51-68 (0.70) 147-88-28-31 (0.71)   Spain UCL/ UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y)   279-144-68-67 (0.63) 133-67-30-36 (0.59)   Chelsea UCL/UEL (4Y/ 2Y)   44-27-11-6 (0.71) 2.95 average goals 10/44 <2 25/44 >2 14/44> 3 19/44 BTTS   21-12-5-4 (0.66) 2.62 average goals 6/21 <2 10/21 >3 5/21 >4 8/21 BTTS   Villarreal UEL Record (4Y/ 2Y)   34-19-10-5 (0.68) 2.68 average goals 9/34 <2 16/34 >2 12/34 >3   14-11-3-0 (0.80) 2.64 average goals 3/14 <2 6/14 >2 3/14 >3 7/14 BTTS   Nation H2H (4Y/ 2Y)   48-16-16-16 1.38-1.17 13/48 <2 24/48 >2 14/48 >3 24/48 BTTS   25-11-7-7 1.40-0.76 9/25 <2 10/25 >2 6/25 >3 9/25 BTTS   Thoughts   I think it's fair to say that Chelsea are the better of the two teams, with English sides also having a better European record than their Spanish counterparts over the last 4 and 2 year cycles. However the record of Spanish teams in this competition cannot be ignored, my feel is that they tend to take this more seriously than English clubs who may view this as a "European Community Shield" opposed to a genuine trophy. Personally I tend to share that opinion and won't be getting too involved; I think motivation could be a leveller and I'll stick half a point on the most common correct score over the last 20 years.   Bets   0.5pts - Draw 1-1 7/1 @ Bet365 (Bore Draw)
 

Some opening day stats below;


Average goals up slightly in the Championship and League Two; strangely goes the other way in League One. Around 30% of matches in Champ and L2 go over 3.5 compared to around 25% in a normal week; again doesn't hold up in L1.

NRL stats/ ratings...

Odds..

Super League stats/ratings

Odds..

It's been a couple of quiet days at the Euros so no better time than to look ahead to the 2021/22 renewal of the Champions League...
Football works in cycles, and with the World Cup and Euros coming along every 4 years that's my starting point. Below are the WDL and F/A of every team competing in the Champions League proper over the last 4 seasons. Beneath that, you'll find the last 2 seasons worth of data.


Furthermore I have grouped all teams by country over the same time periods.


Here is brief overview of the last 8 by nation since 2011/12

Now, having looked over the data my first bet goes against it all to a certain a extent. My early thoughts are I want to get PSG onside, beaten finalists 2 years ago and semi finalists last year, I expect the Parisans to go well in Poch's first full season in charge, Poch who of course guided Spurs to the final 3 years ago. They've already recruited Gini Wijnaldum who played in 2 finals with Liverpool as well as winning the Premier League They've also been linked with serial winner Sergio Ramos and Gianluggi Donnarumma. If those rumoured signings prove to be accurate, current quotes of 12/1 won't be available for long.
Bet
Paris SG to win the Champions League - 1pt @ 12/1 Betvictor

Similar thoughts the rest of the knockout rounds really... 28/64 knockout matches from Euro 96 ending all square, 3/6 finals, average goals in finals in that period 1.67.
Italy's record in knockout matches of Euros and World Cups since Italia 90 (90 mins play) is P27-W12-D14-L1, England P22-W5-D12-L5.
Expect both sides to adopt a saftey first approach.
Bet
Match to be drawn - 1pt @ 2/1 (General)
No First Goalscorer - 0.5pts @ 6/1 (Betvictor) [Take 0.5pts less than the 13/2 available on 0-0 to keep own goals on sde]

Brazil v Argentina
5 out of the last 10 Copa America Finals finished level after 90 mins, average goals 2.30, 3 0-0s.
Bet
Match to be drawn - 1pt @ 21/10 (General)
No First Goalscorer - 0.5pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Exciting news as I've decided to dig up my MLS ratings and projections for the rest of the season.
Below are my current xG ratings and points projections;

Lorenzo Insigne was voted Star of the Match in last nights Quarter Final between Belgium and Italy - he's not currently showing on Oddschecker but Betway have him chalked up at 33/1, he's generally around 10/1 elsewhere. Italy are current tournament favs and I think he represents value.
Bet
Lorenzo Insigne Player of the Tournament - 1pt @ 33/1 Betway
 

Below is a snapshot of how the 8 Quarter Finalists have performed in competitive matches starting from the World Cup in 2018 and then the last 2 seasons.


Belgium v Italy really is the irresistible force meets the immoveable object..