jamied02

The final field of 32 was set with Costa Ricas' victory over New Zealand yesterday, I've been working on some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model today - prices available for the first round of matches and the majority of the second in which case they have superseded my match ratings.


Advised Bet(s) - I like to do a NAP (2pts), NB (1pt), Outsider (0.50pts) and a Long Shot (0.25pts) totaling 3.75pts outlay but I like both my main selections
1.50pts Argentina to win the World Cup @ 9/1
1.50pts Germany to win the World Cup @ 12/1
0.50pts Senegal to win he World Cup @ 80/1
0.25pts Morocco to win the World Cup @ 250/1
 

Latest 8 match and season to date ratings as well as projections;

The final field of 32 was set with Costa Ricas' victory over New Zealand yesterday, I've been working on some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model today - prices available for the first round of matches and the majority of the second in which case they have superseded my match ratings.


Advised Bet(s) - I like to do a NAP (2pts), NB (1pt), Outsider (0.50pts) and a Long Shot (0.25pts) totaling 3.75pts outlay but I like both my main selections
1.50pts Argentina to win the World Cup @ 9/1
1.50pts Germany to win the World Cup @ 12/1
0.50pts Senegal to win he World Cup @ 80/1
0.25pts Morocco to win the World Cup @ 250/1
 

Everton look in a diabolical shape at both ends at the minute and my ratings highlight a resurgent Newcastle as the value tonight at around 9/4

P - Played
Pts - Points so far
F - Expected goals for
A - Expected goals against
GD - Expected goal difference
Prj - Raw Projected points
Adj - Adjusted points (based on historical points averages)
MLS - MLS Cup winner odds
SS - Supporters Shield winner odds
Div - Divisional/ Conference winner odds
#1S - Number 1 seed odds
TQ - To Qualify for the play off odds

Pre-season projections:

Pre-season projections:

Conference Championships this weekend.. latest tissue..

Name the finalists..

Straight forecast..

 
 

Latest Bracket...

Name the finalists grid...

Tournament stats..

Nation 4Y and 2Y data..

I'm afraid not - rugby union a sport I don't even retain a passing interest in

Must admit i was expecting sub 2/1 quotes, managed to get 2/1, 11/5 and 2/1 - not that it mattered in the end 

Usual tactic for international tournement knockout rounds - play the draw.
27/88 KO matches since 2003 have ended all square; 3 of the 8 L16 matches last time out too.
The draw in the Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Guinea matches in a trixie to kick things off for me.
Will probably do the Tuesday/ Wednesday ,matches in a yankee.
Swerving Cameroon v Comoros due to the Comoros camp having covid. 

Q = Quality of match, nothing fancy just the average of the two teams in questions ratings

My tissue for tonight...

At the prices my bet at this stage would have to Dallas at around 12/1
 

At the prices my bet at this stage would have to Dallas at around 12/1
 

The curtain came down on the regular season last weekend with the play-offs due to commencing this coming Saturday.
Play Off Bracket (with Tissue prices)


4 Match Ratings

8 Match Ratings

12 Match Ratings

16 Match Ratings

Play Off Match Tissues

The curtain came down on the regular season last weekend with the play-offs due to commencing this coming Saturday.
Play Off Bracket (with Tissue prices)


4 Match Ratings

8 Match Ratings

12 Match Ratings

16 Match Ratings

Play Off Match Tissues

Using all the stats and resources above, as well as taking into account the squads and managers of each nation, I've put together some subjective ratings and plugged them into my model which has spat out the below prices (prices capped at 1000.00):

Recommended Bets
2pts Morocco to win Outright @ 10/1 (Skybet)
1pt Mali to win Outright @ 25/1 (Skybet)

The 2021 (2022) renewal of the African Cup of Nations kicks off this Sunday in Cameroon. Here is Bet365s latest outright odds;

 

Didn't follow on that. Was on the brink of taking a profit juts before the equaliser (I hardly ever close out) but ended up having to suffer the anxiety of extra time and pens. Thanks for the original recommendation.

It's the MLS Cup Final on Saturday evening as Portland Timbers take on NYCFC.
My pre-match tissue has the side from New York as slight favourites;


I've backdated my ratings to after the final round of the regular season, at which stage I would have made Portland 19.53 for MLS glory and NYCFC 15.11. A name the finalists bet would have been 90.02.
MLS Cup Final Trends (since 1996)
9/25 draws, 4 matches going to a penalty shoot out
2.48 average goals
15/25 BTTS
5/25 Under 1.5
10/25 Over 2.5
6/25 Over 3.5
6/25 finished 1-1
MLS Single-Leg Tie Trends (including finals, since 2012)
13/71 draws, 11 matches going to a penalty shootout
3.07 average goals
43/71 BTTS
11/71 Under 1.5
45/71 Over 2.5
25/71 Over 3.5
14/71 finished 2-1 either way
11/71 finished 3-1 either way
West v East (since 2012)
177W-96D-65L
1.81 goals for with 1.16 goals against - a GD of +0.65
Home advantage across the entire MLS is worth around 0.55, therefore Western sides hosting Eastern sides is worth an extra 0.10 of a goal.
The collection of stats/ data below are taken over the last 24 regular season matches only;
Match Stats

xG Stats

Shots Stats

Shots on Target Stats

Head to Head

Final Thoughts
I'm on NYCFC Outright at 20/1 (see outright thread) so won't be getting too involved on the day. I do think there is some mileage in a 1-1 correct score, I'll stick half a point on that at 7.00
 

Some stats ahead of today's 2nd round (played, average, legs won ratio, 180's p/l)

Some stats ahead of today's 2nd round (played, average, legs won ratio, 180's p/l)