DrO

I appreciate that Novak is pretty good, but Rublev played really badly.

Will be interesting to see how Djokovic handles things for sure. One funny thing are the official photos. A couple of years back he was the second tallest I believe, just below Berdych. Now he's the second shortest?

Ok,thanks for the answers and sorry for bothering you.

You can't try something like this with a bookie, they'd never let you stake much more than a few hundred. You've got to use the exchanges.

The very first try was the best. At the start of the thread @DrO

Also,if u don't mind,i would like to say something about final as well.

Novak must not allow Medvedev,from the start,to be relaxed and get in the rhytm. That's exactly how he lost to Medvedev in Cincinnati (2020) and in New York couple a months ago. He has to put him under the pressure and to make good decisions in key points. By the look how he played today against Hurkacz,i'm not sure he could do that. Novak has to find a way to move Danil from baseline,otherwise i think he will lose.

Of course,this is Novak and you can't write him off completely, but i do expect a better Novak in Turin and Davis Cup Finals.

Also,if u don't mind,i would like to say something about final as well.

Novak must not allow Medvedev,from the start,to be relaxed and get in the rhytm. That's exactly how he lost to Medvedev in Cincinnati (2020) and in New York couple a months ago. He has to put him under the pressure and to make good decisions in key points. By the look how he played today against Hurkacz,i'm not sure he could do that. Novak has to find a way to move Danil from baseline,otherwise i think he will lose.

Of course,this is Novak and you can't write him off completely, but i do expect a better Novak in Turin and Davis Cup Finals.

Just a few random thoughts on semi's.

Hurkacz was quite emotional after a win yesterday,knowing what was the stake for him - ticket to Turin. He could be emotionally empty a little bit today and without some cutting edge ih his game. Novak still missing a match routine after a long break. His games on return are solid,but he's lacking consistency in games on serve. If he finds a good servis rhytm he should more-or-less easily prevail. Fun fact:these two could meet in Turin as well,in group stage.

Zverev is complaining lately on being tired,but honestly i don't see that in his tennis,mainly because he's serving like crazy (in positive way). Knowing their recent h2h,i expect Medvedev to take control on match,trying to involve Sascha in longer rallys,and eventualy win in the end. Fun fact: this match is a replay of last year's final.

Just a few random thoughts on semi's.

Hurkacz was quite emotional after a win yesterday,knowing what was the stake for him - ticket to Turin. He could be emotionally empty a little bit today and without some cutting edge ih his game. Novak still missing a match routine after a long break. His games on return are solid,but he's lacking consistency in games on serve. If he finds a good servis rhytm he should more-or-less easily prevail. Fun fact:these two could meet in Turin as well,in group stage.

Zverev is complaining lately on being tired,but honestly i don't see that in his tennis,mainly because he's serving like crazy (in positive way). Knowing their recent h2h,i expect Medvedev to take control on match,trying to involve Sascha in longer rallys,and eventualy win in the end. Fun fact: this match is a replay of last year's final.

Reilly Opelka to beat Filip Krajinovic at 1.87 with Pinnacle
Both are in poor forms at the moment, but Opelka has had some bad luck, running into the red-hot Brooksby and then to Sinner. Krajinovic has looked a fair bit worse to me, so I'm quite keen to take him on. This does have the feeling of a coin-flip match and the odds aren't great based on that, but Opelka has looked better to me recently by a lot. 

That was a good Day yesterday....

Indian Wells (USA)
Nishikori K. Vs Evans D. - Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.
I'm quite surprised Dan is the underdog here as i think he's just the better player nowadays.
there was no shame in his defeat by Norrie last week in San Diego, Norrie going on to win that event.
Kei had a very tough match against Joao Sousa and Dan is fresh so I'm going to have a punt on Dan Evans to win 2 sets to 1 @ 5.50 with BetVictor.
good luck all. 

Unibet going 1.85 for the anytime and a standout 5.75 the brace, if anyone's fancy is tickled.

Luxembourg - Serbia

It's really fun to watch Serbia this time around. Head coach and legend of Yugoslavian football,Dragan Stojkovic Piksi, brought big changes to our game and our mentality. We are know playing a very offensive minded football, always going for one more goal. I could easily say that in this very moment,Serbia is one of most exciting teams to watch. Having a players like Tadic, Sergej Milinkovic Savic, Kostic, Vlahovic and Mitrovic,in team,it's not difficult to understand why. But,on the other hand, our defense is quite shaky and we don't have good balance in the game. This is why Serbia conceding a lot of goals. In fact:in last eight Serbia's matches only once we didn't concede a goal (International friendly match against Qatar,which we won 4:0 btw). Having a players like Rodrigues,Goncalves,Sinani and Till i can easily see Luxembourg scoring here. Luxembourg is underdog,but not a type of underdog who "parks a bus" in front of their goal,but like to go up front as well. After all: h2h suggests another high-scoring match.

Like i said,Serbia is doing well in these qualifications and still have a chance to finish top of the group.  To do that our national team has to win all of remaining matches: Luxembourg (a), Azerbaijan (h) and then a 'big finale' of the campaign - Portugal (a). Not a easy task,but i think we will start with 3 points on Saturday.

Serbia ah2(-1) @1.90
Total goals scored: over 2.5 @1.80
Anytime scorer: Aleksandar Mitrovic @1.80 (Mitrovic could score 2 or more goals here,but i don't have this option in local bookie)
 

Won
Won
Won
Won. Pouille was serving to win the match 3-1 but he choked. Ramos played better but he wasted 13 BPs (6-19) while Pouille converted almost every single one he had (3-7)
Void. Brady retired due to her foot injury. Raducanu has beat Voegele (LL) in 2 sets.
Really happy to announce that I have won my last 10 bets here (10/10 in the last 2 weeks!)
This one still alive (I'm very optimistic about this one). The odds have dropped. Cilic/Fokina/Isner out.
If I find some bets that I like I will post them.

But,just a few days ago,Djokovic said (after practice with Shapovalov) they've both agreed that surface is 15% faster than last year and it will be even 15% faster in second week of the tournament. Ok,those are their impressions but still..i don't think that conditions will be that slow..

But,just a few days ago,Djokovic said (after practice with Shapovalov) they've both agreed that surface is 15% faster than last year and it will be even 15% faster in second week of the tournament. Ok,those are their impressions but still..i don't think that conditions will be that slow..

Pointless to continue as you say. I'm talking about the long-term, you're talking about the short-term. I'm sure there's some agreement in there somewhere, but I'm not in the habit of conversing with anyone that calls me a liar.

Interesting stats - however, not relevant to the point I was making. My point was that his break point saved numbers seem lower than they used to be - although as I said I have not checked, it's just a 'feel' I get from watching his matches (which is ironic as you suggested I haven't been watching his matches). 
The stats that would be relevant are a comparison between Nadal's break point saved numbers from two or three years ago and now. Also, not all break points are created equal. Some carry a great deal more pressure than others, for example Nadal failed to save break point against Harris and that break point was also match point and it seems to me that he's losing more 'key' break points than he used to. 
Finally, I never said Nadal's decline would be exclusively on account of declining break point saved numbers - It will be a part of the picture, but only a part and you're right to say that other stats like first serve percentage and break points converted are also important.

Also in Serbian.

The problem for Sabalenka that manifested against Pliskova is the same problem she's always had - namely she doesn't seem to have the ability to do anything other than hit the ball hard. Against most players, and on good days of which she has plenty, she blasts through whoever she's playing against and is able to rack up win after win and because she's winning the deficiencies in her game are masked over. But they've always been there. Plan A is hit the ball hard, Plan B is hit the ball harder and she doesn't seem to be able to adapt and adjust her game during a match.
The best example of that against Pliskova was being in control of about 4 or 5 rallies and being in a position half-way up the court to put the ball away and win the point, and she kept going to Pliskova's forehand and losing the point. Someone like Barty might play that shot once, maybe twice, but come the third time they'd be going down the backhand side having realised that going to the forehand wasn't working. If she's to take her game to the next level, she really needs to work on tactics and point construction and also awareness of how a match is going so that she can try to change what she's doing if it isn't working.

Fucsovics had a chance to at least trouble him and I also expected to see a bit more from Shapovalov. Obviously he was a big favorite before then, but I now feel even stronger than before. Unless Berrettini serves out of his mind, I don't see him dropping more than two sets from now on. Hurkacz did well against Federer, but he wasn't tested at all, Roger was just poor.

The only notable error you made is only when you wrote "anyone will fancy him in draw" because you missed to write the "a" as it should be anyone will fancy him in a draw so nothing wrong with your english.

Berrettini is enjoying a very good season so far. Except of Bublik and Fokina,his defeats are coming from better ranked players: Medvedev,Tsitsipas,Zverev and Djokovic. His record is 26-5 which is pretty decent,i would say.
So far,he didn't show any sign of injury,fatigue problems..

But above all this - he've improved his game. Particulary on backhand side. Before,his bh was very vulnerable. Not even average,but poor. These days his bh is solid. Not solid as his forehand,but it's no longer poor..he is now able not just to hit cross-court bh,but also down the line..also his slice is decent enough..so plenty shots to mix with.. of course his serve and fh are stil his "trademark" shots,very powerful shots..
His footwork is nice, which is very important on grass surface especially

His return shots are no more than average,but i believe that he could 'live' with it..like i said - tough nutt to crack and don't believe anyone will fancy him in draw.