DrO

S.Tsitsipas (-5.5 games) to beat F.Krajinovic @1.65 with Soocerbet (local bookie)

Tsitsipas is in excellent shape. He won the first two matches relatively easily while Krajinovic had to play two marathon-matches. The second one (vs Baena) was especialy tough. Today Filip withdrew from doubles as a precautionary measure. He's not injured,but he is tired. Also,take note that Filip doesn't like to play against players of Tsitsipas profile.

S.Tsitsipas (-5.5 games) to beat F.Krajinovic @1.65 with Soocerbet (local bookie)

Tsitsipas is in excellent shape. He won the first two matches relatively easily while Krajinovic had to play two marathon-matches. The second one (vs Baena) was especialy tough. Today Filip withdrew from doubles as a precautionary measure. He's not injured,but he is tired. Also,take note that Filip doesn't like to play against players of Tsitsipas profile.

Chelsea vs Arsenal
The first all-English major European final of the season is here and it is taking place 2,500 miles away from the country that both of these teams come from. The joys of UEFA's organising prowess! It's Chelsea versus Arsenal in an 8pm kick-off at the Olympic Stadium in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Chelsea enter this final game with controversy and disruption smothering their preparations. Real Madrid President Florentino Perez publicly stating he wants to sign Eden Hazard was probably a little unnecessary at this time of the year and Maurizio Sarri witnessing David Luiz and Gonzalo Higuain have a bust-up in yesterday's training was not ideal. The Chelsea manager was then left frustrated by the training session being kept open to the media meaning his side couldn't practice top secret set-piece drills resulting in the Italian kicking his cap to the floor and storming off. This is even without mentioning the rumours that Sarri has been in talks with Juventus to succeed the outgoing Massimiliano Allegri at the Old Lady.
Arsenal's build-up has been a little bit more low key. Unai Emery has done his best to keep plans close to his chest. The Spaniard is experienced at preparing for matches like this having won this competition three times with Sevilla. The emphasis for the Gunners has been to win this game and secure a spot in next season's Champions League because failure to do so would seriously harm their chances of evolving.
The big injury news leading into this game is the potential absence of N'Golo Kante. The Frenchman is ruled "50-50" to play and with the Blues also missing Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi it would leave Chelsea very short in midfield. Arsenal will be without Henrikh Mikhitaryan due to concerns over his safety and Aaron Ramsey.
This is the second time there has been an all-English final in this competition. The first time it happened was back in 1972 when Tottenham played Wolves. Both sides have won 11 games in European competition this season. Only three teams (Real Madrid in 2001/02, Porto in 2010/11, and Atletico Madrid in 2011/12) have won more.
The Gunners don't possess the best record in major European finals. In their five visits to a final in European competition they have only come out on top once. That was in the 1994 Cup Winners' Cup victory over Parma. Interestingly, Arsenal have faced opponents from 27 nations in European competition. They have beaten teams from 26 of those countries. The exception? England.
On the flip side, Chelsea have a cracking record in major European cup finals. The Blues have won 4 of their 5 finals. If you're considering a goalscorer bet then you might want to look at Olivier Giroud. The French striker has flown under the radar with his 10 goals in the competition this season. That is the most scored by a Chelsea player in a single season of European competition and it is the joint most by any Frenchman. The other two French players to score that many were Nestor Combin in the 1963/64 Cup Winners' Cup and Just Fontaine in the 1958/59 European Cup.
This is going to be a close game. It's been one victory apiece in the league. Chelsea might have had every that could go wrong going wrong in the build-up but that can create a siege mentality. I'm just not sure the players back Sarri any more and I'm not sure Sarri really has the motivation knowing he's all but out of the door. Sure, it's a cup final but Chelsea are so reliant on Hazard and he's not really done the business away from Stamford Bridge. I think this is one where Arsenal should be backed. Emery knows how to win this competition and that could prove crucial.
Arsenal to Lift the Trophy @ 2.30 with Betway
BTTS @ 1.70 with Sportingbet
@delfino, @KikoCy, @giraldi, @Icongene, @dogmeister, @rangers234, @Pipoca, @Notorious, @ElPrincipito007, @KingSoccertips, @vasilli07, @betcatalog, @immortal--, @DW_United, @discipline, @WinningAdvice, @arvee, @silverfox, @FrenchEskimo, @liamcorrigan86, @ElPrincipito007, @Neubs, @TOTTI3, @Simeon Borisof, @Charon84, @Magic0024, @Xcout, @arsenalfh, @BJO, @footballeye, @gamblerxxx, @Xcout, @allyhibs, @cluelessG, @jazzman02 , @DrO, @chris50, @mtom, @canaries91, @slipkid, @Dzontra85, @Marek76, @hristofor, @Philosophy2 @Hitch, and @CloughandTaylor, are you all betting on this game tonight?

Londero to beat Gasquet - 1.85 with SportingBet

Can't read too much into Gasquet's win over Zverev given Zverev's form. Londero demolished Basilashvili and in general he's having a stellar season. It's likely that Gasquet will run out of the gas the longer the game goes on.

How many chances did Millman throw away in two sets

Finally got the set. Thanks @CzechPunter for the tip.

David Goffin (-2.5 sets) to beat Ricardas Berankis at 1.77 with local bookie Soccerbet

Although Gofan is not in the best shape, I still believe he can win in straight sets. Berankis did beat him in Doha at the opening of the new season,but it was under different circumstances. In 2019 Bearnkis have played one (yes,just one) match on clay and it was in Geneva last week. He lost against Uchida 46 46. So,if Uchida was able to beat him without dropping a set,why wouldn't Goffin do the same? I feel like Lithuanian is here just to collect prize money. 

Barcelona vs Valencia
The curtain falls on the Spanish domestic season this coming weekend with the Copa del Rey Final between La Liga champions Barcelona and Champions League qualifiers Valencia. The two teams will go head-to-head in an 8pm kick-off (note the time change from the initial scheduled time listed with the odds above) on Saturday evening at the Benito Villamarin in Seville.
Barcelona secured the La Liga title to add to their ever-growing trophy cabinet. Ernesto Valverde will be hoping to make it a domestic double for a second consecutive season. The odds are heavily in their favour but is this a foregone conclusion before a ball has been kicked? Barcelona fans don't seem entirely happy with Valverde and that can be purely blamed on a premature exit in the Champions League.
Valencia have had an encouraging season under Marcelino. Qualification for next season's Champions League was achieved so expectations were at least met, if not exceeded. Can they take inspiration from their run to the Europa League Semi-Finals to deny Barcelona a fifth straight Copa del Rey trophy win?
Los Che can take confidence from their 2-2 draw against Barcelona at the Nou Camp. on 2nd February. It was clear that the best way to approach this Barcelona side was with an effective counter-attacking strategy. If they can hold the Catalan side over 90 minutes then maybe, just maybe, they could upset the odds. It certainly seems worth backing Valencia as a handicap here.
Valencia AH +1.00 @ 1.85 with 888Sport
BTTS @ 1.65 with Betway
@Pep004, @Magic0024, @betcatalog, @malabgd, @AndreBR, @Xcout, @four-leaf, @sajtion, @Arkadi Manucharov, @Jamesboaz, @RealUnited, @allyhibs, @jazzman02, @Mr.Paul, @notanotherdonkey, @Marek76, @freestylerx, @DonPaulo, @fhuefdsa, @laprikon, @Gabosbet, @Dr. Florida192, @thinkpink63, @MarioDunav, @EuroDream, @vicsuna, @i1_principe, @dinero, @vicsuna, @wagerbro, and @derbent, what are you guys thinking about this season finale cup final?

Since @DrO so kindly asked - I don't think that there's any value in the match of the day. Nadal is finally in a clay finals, but Djokovic has been the better player by far so far in the clay court season and I'm not getting the right vibes from Nadal right now. He's clearly not in a great shape fitness-wise and Djokovic is going to push him much more than any of the other guys so far. Had the Serb not played two long back-to-back matches, I'd be on him at the current odds. But he has - and he had to run a lot against both Diego and Juan Martin, quite late on both days as well, that might be a factor if this goes to the third set, which it very well might. If I was absolutely pushed to post a bet, I'd back Djokovic to win a set.

Liverpool - Barcelona over 2.5 goals @1.65
Leo Messi anytime scorer @2.10

Bank doubled in six bets!
Betting Bank                        100.00
1)27/04/19 - WON +24.00 - 124.00
2)28/04/19 - WON +37.60 - 161.60
3)29/04/19 - Lost -20.00   - 141.60
4)30/04/19 - WON +39.20 - 180.80
5)01/05/19 - Lost -20.00   - 160.80
6)02/05/19 - WON +41.60 - 202.40
I realize I've posted this in the wrong thread so I'll be starting again in the Glory Hunters thread.

FT 1-3

Catarina L. - Munar J. under 18.5 games @1.70  local bookie

Catarina recieved wild card for this event but i'm affraid that he's not even a challenger level player. Munar is not a world beater for sure,but he's solid enough to claim easy victory. I see something like 6-4/3 6-2/1 for the Spaniard.

Challenger: Anning
Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10
Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Monte Carlo qualification
Mischa Zverev vs. Julian Ocleppo @3.35 Pinnacle 8/10
Zverev in horrendous form and shape. Looked horrible vs. Daniel in Marrakech. Clay was always his worst surface. Don't see him winning many matches next few weeks. Might cash out some bigger tournaments though and looking forward to grass court. I doubt you can make him a favorite right now vs any decent claycourt player out there. Ocleppo looking solid enough to take advantage of Zverevs bad form. Ocleppo once was a good prospect, beat guys like Auger-Aliassime or Yibing Wu as a junior for example.

2-1ft for skraaaa woooon 

ouahab won 62 60
walk in the park for the legend. i took some more of ouahab this morning, no idea why some books had him aroiund 2.7....strange one, ouahab dominated from the first point as expected.

All clay courts in USA has green clay I think. That's at least what I've seen on every american clay tournament from challenger level and ITF level to ATP and WTA level.

Correct.

Angelique Kerber (-2.5) to beat Bianca V. Andreescu @1.90  Local bookie

I already wrote about Andreescu and some of you may have noticed that I bet on her on several occasions, but this time I will go against her, as situational factors are not on her side. I still consider the Canadian as the greatest surprise of the season, but I think she has played too many tennis lately and that her "tank is empty",really no fuel for the final. I watched her match against Svitolina. At the end of the match it seemed to me that she's going to almost start crying as tired as she was. Also this will be the most important match in her career so far and nerves and lack of experience will play a role for sure.
Kerber did have some difficulties in couple of rounds but then she raised her level of play against Venus and against Bencic. Unlike the opponent, she is fresh, she has played a lot of such matches and will know what to do.

Angelique Kerber (-2.5) to beat Bianca V. Andreescu @1.90  Local bookie

I already wrote about Andreescu and some of you may have noticed that I bet on her on several occasions, but this time I will go against her, as situational factors are not on her side. I still consider the Canadian as the greatest surprise of the season, but I think she has played too many tennis lately and that her "tank is empty",really no fuel for the final. I watched her match against Svitolina. At the end of the match it seemed to me that she's going to almost start crying as tired as she was. Also this will be the most important match in her career so far and nerves and lack of experience will play a role for sure.
Kerber did have some difficulties in couple of rounds but then she raised her level of play against Venus and against Bencic. Unlike the opponent, she is fresh, she has played a lot of such matches and will know what to do.

Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Dusan Lajovic @1.70  local bookie

I'm aware of the fact that Cilic isn't in the best shape,but neither is Lajovic. I've seen Lajovic's match agaist Daniel and i can tell you that he was pretty poor and very lucky to win. He won't stand a chance with that kind of performance against Cilic. Also i think he will struggle with Cilic's agressive shots.

Garbine Muguruza Blanco (+4.5 games) to beat Serena Williams @1.72  local bookie

A little risky bet i admit,but i think that somehow Garbine was always a bad matchup for Serena. Serena won over Azaranka but Vika is not a shadow of a player she was. I'm not sure that Muguruza has what it takes to win the match,but i hope she can cover this line.

Andreescu (vs.Voegele) + Schwartzmann (vs.Carballes Baena) @1,69  local bookie 
Canadian girl Andreescu is still flying high while Voegele is real "blast from the past" in IW this week. Still..i think her run ends here...DIego should be too strong for Spaniard even he also had couple strange results lately 

Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Dusan Lajovic @1.70  local bookie

I'm aware of the fact that Cilic isn't in the best shape,but neither is Lajovic. I've seen Lajovic's match agaist Daniel and i can tell you that he was pretty poor and very lucky to win. He won't stand a chance with that kind of performance against Cilic. Also i think he will struggle with Cilic's agressive shots.

Garbine Muguruza Blanco (+4.5 games) to beat Serena Williams @1.72  local bookie

A little risky bet i admit,but i think that somehow Garbine was always a bad matchup for Serena. Serena won over Azaranka but Vika is not a shadow of a player she was. I'm not sure that Muguruza has what it takes to win the match,but i hope she can cover this line.

Andreescu (vs.Voegele) + Schwartzmann (vs.Carballes Baena) @1,69  local bookie 
Canadian girl Andreescu is still flying high while Voegele is real "blast from the past" in IW this week. Still..i think her run ends here...DIego should be too strong for Spaniard even he also had couple strange results lately 

Denis Istomin (-2.5 games) to beat Jozef Kovalik @1.65 Local bookie

I've recently wrote about Jozef Kovalik and his issues trying to come back after a long abstinence. He lost against Popyrin quite easily and i see something similiar happening against Istomin as well. This is Pxoenix challenger and i hope that Denis will be motivated enough to claim a victory.

Ivo Karlovic vs. Prajnesh Gunneswaran over 23.5 games @1.70 Local bookie

Ivo is probably a rightful favourite here,but to be honest i don't like betting on him neither against him. I always like overs though. This line isn't that big and the odds are decent enough. Line can be covered even in two sets - something like 75 75/76 75/76 76

And..yes..i also like Felix to beat Nishioka

Marin Cilic (-1.5 sets) to beat Dusan Lajovic @1.70  local bookie

I'm aware of the fact that Cilic isn't in the best shape,but neither is Lajovic. I've seen Lajovic's match agaist Daniel and i can tell you that he was pretty poor and very lucky to win. He won't stand a chance with that kind of performance against Cilic. Also i think he will struggle with Cilic's agressive shots.

Garbine Muguruza Blanco (+4.5 games) to beat Serena Williams @1.72  local bookie

A little risky bet i admit,but i think that somehow Garbine was always a bad matchup for Serena. Serena won over Azaranka but Vika is not a shadow of a player she was. I'm not sure that Muguruza has what it takes to win the match,but i hope she can cover this line.

Andreescu (vs.Voegele) + Schwartzmann (vs.Carballes Baena) @1,69  local bookie 
Canadian girl Andreescu is still flying high while Voegele is real "blast from the past" in IW this week. Still..i think her run ends here...DIego should be too strong for Spaniard even he also had couple strange results lately