Wildgarden

335 chelt
On the blind side  335 
Cotswold way   331 
Very interesting and classy looking race ....on the blind side looks a horse on the upgrade and handles Cheltenham so has a lot going for him hence fav ......cotswold way hasn't really fired for a while but handles Cheltenham and showed signs of a return to form last time and if so could be well treated now 
On the blind side 10pt win 5.9 betfair 
Cotswold way 10pt win 17.0 betfair 

Venetia Williams has only had 3 winners at Cheltenham racecourse in the last 5 years. Not sure how many horses  she’s had there in that amount of time. 

Alan 

It's a sensible man who admits something isnt working rather than flog a dead horse .....sometimes a change can bring about good things and we learn all the time ....I wish you good luck 

Delicate Kiss won at 5.09. Nice winner for us.

Todays selections are;
 
12:22 Warwick Galidermes 12:45 Newcastle Onward Route 14:55 Newcastle Maid O'Malley 15:17 Taunton Glajou 15:47 Taunton Mystic Court 17:30 Chelmsford Rockesbury 18:30 Chelmsford Nigel Nott 19:30 Chelmsford Scofflaw 20:00 Chelmsford Splash Of Verve  

One selection today; will update the bank later
12:15 Lingfield Delicate Kiss  
 

Palmers Hill 2.15

All prices Bet365:
12.37 Taunton - 1pt e/w Mayne @ 25/1
12.45 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Onward Route @ 12/1
12.52 Warwick - 1pt e/w Cape Milano @ 12/1
2.15 Taunton - 1pt e/w No Hidden Charges @ 16/1
2.25 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Mannochmore @ 8/1
2.47 Taunton - 1pt e/w Shall We Go Now @ 14/1

I'll stick with Nicky Henderson despite his rubbish day on Saturday (6 losers, including 4 favourites).
2 runners at Warwick today that match my criteria.
12.52 PATROCLUS 11/10
3.32 BLAIRGOWIE 3/1

I haven't had much time for analysis today so I'm just going for one selections at Newcastle
12.45 Nc Engarde £6.20 win at 7/4 (just missed 2/1 with Bet365) 15 points score
Interesting that Capard King in the 12.15 is about 5/2 with Betfair and scores 5.75 points.  whilst Malystic scores 13.5 points in the 1.20 at Newc.  which is at a best price of around 5/4. However, the latter selection is in a handicap where all the horses are supposed to finish in a dead heat.  That being so it seems to me that Engarde has to be the better value bet, doesn't it?
Nb my new staking regime means I will be placing larger stakes than normal on my shorter priced selections.  This being so my £134.21 Singles balance is woefully inadequate to cope with my revised betting stakes.  What I am going to do is increase my bank to £500 from today.  There is no trickery here.  I am very happy to acknowledge that I have to write off £265.79 loss from my original bank of £400.  The loss occurred mainly because of my misplaced idea of backing so called good things at higher prices.  I will still sometimes back horses at longer odds but am stream lining the bets in relation to my new criteria.  I will leave most of the long shots to @Bathtime For Rupertand @richard-westwoodin the future who have proven to be far better at it than me
Only one win selection today that one.  Engarde drifted in the betting out to 100/30 and in-running I saw it at 10.0 plus.  Fortunately it came through and won.  I have no idea how Sunset West became 6/4 favourite.
Anyway my replenished betting bank started at £500 and a profit of £10.85 brings the tally to £510.85
I will retain my Multiples balances which stand at £580.04 (£800 Bank) and the top rated one with a deficit of £37.65 c/fwd.  The intention is to get them both back into a small profit and perhaps think again after that happens.
There is some class racing at Cheltenham tomorrow.  I am content just to work just through a single meeting these days whereas I used to try and look through all of them in case I missed out on a good opportunity. 
 
 
 
 

I'd add bet same amount each race regardless of odds as I have missed several big odds (30-1+ winning) with lesser stakes that could have dramatically increased profits. I would also say anything over 12-1 is likely better odds on the exchanges as the overrounds are big for longer odds with bookies and you can see 20-1 wins being 36-1 on the exchange for example at times.

Dec +33
Few extras for me
1pt level stakes win only 
11.45 New African Glory 10/1 Lost
13.50 New Temple Guide10/1Lost
14.25 New Kyoto Star 10/1 Lost 
All prices as of now b365
-3 
Dec +30 
Not one for aftertiming but it seems I missed one off ,my fault,it was rushing because of the early start 
People be aware Sue Smith's horses are just coming in to form 

todays selections

NEWCASTLE 12:15 Capard King 2/1 win

TAUNTON 14:47 Mount Windsor 7/2 win

WARWICK 15:02 Commit Or Quit 5/1 e/w 3 Places

TAUNTON 15:17 Master Work 5/1 e/w 3 Places

plus e/w yankee

PS. Some very interesting points above indeed. I guess one of the problems with horse racing is the astonishing amount of statistics easily available today. Almost an information overload. Although obviously some things have more significance depending on the event maybe? 

I only use a basic system ....
1) awareness .....if a horse has ears pricked and looks like hes enjoying the outing he will get 5/5 .....if the horse has head down and looks half asleep then will get 0 or 1 
2) physical condition .....if horse has nice coat and looks physically muscular (up to 1 mile ...after that the muscular appearance is less required )....and has a good size then gets 10 .....grading down to 1 .....so a horse with dull coat ....small in stature with poor muscular appearance would get a 1 
So total 15 .....you can even ask the stable boys girls what they think today as they pass you ....they are usually happy to comment .....he seems well today ......I think he will need the run etc .....note it down .......like I said I've had winners up to 100/1 just on this score alone with no looking at form so it really does help ......it can be done on  tv but much less accurate ....you cant judge coat condition or temperament on a brief glimpse so it's best on course 
But definately adds an extra dimension and makes the trip on course much more enjoyable because your more involved so I wholly recommend giving it a go 
P.s note ....if the horse is too excited .....bucking too much ....sweating etc ....deduct points as he will knackered before even gets to post .....the odd kick is ok ...shows hes ready and in the mood 

I've been betting for 20 years and the one thing I never really paid much attention to was the paddock ......then I took my young daughter to wolv and she was watching this chestnut horse ...stars stenciled into rear ....ears pricked ....jogging on spot ....just looked fab ....and she said after watching all of them ....I want the star horse ....long story short it won 500 quid at 100/1 ....since then if I go to the racing I always rate the horses in parade and put score next to them on card .. has got me countless winners...I've list count how many ...

Interesting read , I do several of these but being out of the house for work around 11 hours a day it's pretty impossible.
I'm surprised you've not mentioned the exchanges for value with b.o.g. being tightened up with lots of firms these days sometimes on the day .
I too keep a notebook on my bets totals won & lost & am pretty consistent year on year generally losing a little but I don't punt big more of a fun hobby & like all punters have good months & bad months.
It was strange to see people flocking to the rails to have a bet in your photo , I go around 10/12 times a year racing & probably use rails bookies once or twice for me they represent zero value especially in big handicaps , like you say , get your bets on early.
If you're ever lucky enough to go to on a stable visit forget about taking your clothes , the most important thing is pen & paper write down lots of little tips the trainers tell you , happy punting everyone !

1.57 Warwick darling du large Betfair sp win and place (prices should drift a bit imo and no value with bookie atm)
Could come back on track following a bad turn up.after wind surgery lto over a year ago and had time now to resurge.

Great stuff. Thanks for the insight into your ratings and how you eventually got there. 

I've evolved constantly over the past 10 11 years ......when I first came onto this site about 10 years ago I was doing speed ratings and I think my first post was speed ratings for the 1000 guineas where I tipped blue bunting at 66/1 top rated and he duly won ...winning me 670 in the process.which was pretty special ...I probably spent the next couple years having a fair bit of success with the speed ratings but I realised after a while that there are many factors involved with what makes a horse win on the day .....weight ...distance....conditions ....jockey ...course ..class ..I was watching a documentary on the weather one day and they said they improved the computers weather accuracy from 18% to over 60 % by running 30 or 40 slightly differing scenarios and going with the most likely outcome that the computer predicted overall ....I remember thinking what if I applied that to racing ....so every single day I picked races and for about 12 monthes I taught myself why certain horses won and why horses lost when they were meant to win .....I learnt how to hcap horses ....how to rate class .....I could already speed rate ....so I came up with a spreadsheet that could rate it all ......it worked really  well so then I made another that would give preference to class in one rating.....would give weight preference in another.....speed in another and so on .....eventually after about 20 diff spreadsheets or programs and I'm talking hundreds of hours of programming i taught it to basically look at the big picture and take it's best guess at what the horse could should do today based on everything  ....and that's just what it does ....its as accurate now as it's ever been so I dont mess with it much but I do sometimes alter variables or maths and run the new thing alongside the old to see if it improves profit etc ........I have to constantly watch things though ....I started getting a run of bad results about 12 months ago and after investigating I realised that an error had occurred in the complicated maths .....was literally a bug that the program had created which inserted a single division sign in the 30 line code and then auto saved it so I have to periodically check the code now and even reload an original copy to make sure these bugs dont occur .....I bet solely for fun ....but the ratings have paid for a couple of holidays over the years and given me so much fun and excitement  so I feel all the hard work has been paid off  in full and I just trust them now blindly .....I wait to see what the ratings are then just look for the best value .....but I'm always open to new ideas or posibiltys ...sometimes ill see something or an idea will pop into my head and ill try it to see if it works .....in the last 12 monthes I altered the class rating and it seems to have made the ratings more accurate so I left it in ....constantly evolving lol 
I had this book years ago which had a formula you could do on a calculator ....it was about 7 or 9 stage formula .....I lost the book and couldn't remember the title .....if I could see it again I might try that because it was pretty good at picking winners ....if anyone knows what it is I'd love to know lol

1st 3rd 3rd ...14pts profit on the day 

Dec +30
Few extras for me 
1pt level stakes win only 
*12.25 Hex Romeo Brown 11/1 Lost
*12.25 Hex Article Fifty  28/1 Lost
15.15 Lin Black Medick  5/1 Won
Prices as of now all b365 
* Against an odds on fav 
+3 
Dec +33 

1215 ling 
Delicate kiss  255
Buckingham  253 
Corazon espinado 250 
Top 2 here have bern posting good times over 1mile ...corazon looks well treated currently but I think needs 7f rather than 8 ...just doesnt seem to last home 
Delicate kiss 4pt win 11/2 bet365 
Buckingham 4pt win 9/2 sky 
 
115 ling 
Dancing feet   250 
Queens course  245 
Stay classy 243 
Dancing feet is surely capable if winning a race like this and top rated today so looks time to play 
Dancing feet 4pts win 9/4 bet365 

todays selections

LINGFIELD 12:15 Lucky Louie 20/1 e/w 3 Places

HEXHAM 12:25 Bushypark 2/7 win

LINGFIELD 13:15 Stay Classy 7/2 win

plus e/w trixie

All prices Bet365:
 
11.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Nebuchadnezzar @ 12/1
A few of these have to prove their stamina here and I think Nebucadnezzar can go well back on the flat having been running quite well over hurdles of late. Was in decent form in nice enough races when last seen on the level and this mark looks fair so quite like him at the price.
12.55 Hexham - 1pt e/w Crank Em Up @ 14/1
Shaped well over four miles last time and I think you're going to need plenty of excess stamina at this track on heavy ground today. Should strip fitter now, he's off a good mark and looks a big price for a horse who's a guaranteed stayer and appears in decent form.
2.15 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Pilot Wings @ 16/1
All of this one's best form has come on the all-weather so this is a welcome return to the artificial surface and has dropped down to a fair mark again with the rider taking off a further 7lbs. Ran well here three starts ago and looks a big price returning down the weights today. 
2.25 Hexham - 1pt e/w Final Fling @ 8/1
Another one with excess stamina here who likely found good ground too sharp for him at Newcastle when last seen. Is down the weights as a result and this test really ought to suit today so I think we'll see him go close now. 
2.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Libretta @ 9/1
Ran well last time when not having the clearest of passages but keeping on for third and that was its second run back from a long absence. Remains lightly raced so more to come and this is an easier contest too so quite a lot to like this afternoon.