Wildgarden

Dec +6
1pt level stakes win only 
12.00 Nav  Mountain Hawk 8/1 Lost
*12.37 Utt Smashing Lass 66/1 Lost
Prices as of now b365 
* against short price fav
Probably additions later 
13.10 Utt Lightning Gold 66/1  Lost with so many non runners and very heavy ground it's worth a pt 
-3
Dec +3 
 
 

todays selections

SOUTHWELL 12:55 Stone Soldier 8/11 win

SOUTHWELL 13:30 Duke Of Firenze 6/1 e/w 2 Places

UTTOXETER 13:45 Truckers Highway 15/2 e/w 2 Places

UTTOXETER 14:20 Saint Dalina 4/6 win

plus e/w yankee

Nicky Henderson had a better day on Tuesday with 3 winners from 8 runners so I will stick with him at Ascot today.
He has 2 runners in the 12.45, I will take a gamble with the second string EMIR SACREE at 28/1.
In the 2.30 he has NO ORDINARY JOE at 100/30.
 

Also have 240

I've also selected EDEN DU HOUX from my young handicappers system, although we are up against Ralphie's system !

Dec +10
1pt level stakes win only 
14.40 Ex Eden Du Houx  9/1 Lost
15.40 Her Chantilly Haze 40/1 Lost 
15.50 Ex Pour Une Raison 6/1 Lost 
15.50 Ex Panatos  28/1 Lost
Prices as of now b365 
-4
Dec +6 

All prices Bet365:
12.25 Hereford - 2pts win Lockdown Leader @ 9/2
Favourite has had a wind op but I have to take him on over 2m3f on bottomless ground given he can race freely and if doing so again is likely to find it a long way home under these conditions. Lockdown Leader is bred for stamina and it looked that way when staying on for a never dangerous 4th on its sole start in a bumper. Should find this test more to his liking and can hopefully outstay the market fancies.
2.30 Hereford - 1pt e/w Rootless Tree @ 20/1
No show in two starts for his new trainer but fell at the first going chasing on first start so is likely to have needed the run last time back over hurdles. Didn't show up there but was a good winner of a novice under these conditions 12 months ago and also shaped well in a handicap off a much higher mark later on in the campaign. Heavy ground is no issue and if bouncing back to form now he's had a run, could outrun the odds.
2.40 Exeter - 1pt e/w Arthur's Gift @ 11/1
Back down to a handy mark now and shaped as if in need of the run on seasonal reappearance. Was better than the losing margin suggests and should strip fitter now. A heavy ground test over three miles suits and looks an attractive price at double figure odds. 
3.05 Hereford - 1pt e/w Winged Isle @ 8/1
Caught the attention of the stewards last time when running on from the rear and the step up in trip looks sure to help. Bred to stay pretty well and had some decent form in a couple of novices at the back end of last year. Slowly came to the boil then before being pitched into a hot handicap on good ground first time out this year. Improved on that last time and now getting his stamina stretched a bit more, ought to go close.
3.15 Exeter - 1pt e/w Rock on Aussie @ 20/1
This one has slid down the weights for quite a few poor runs but shaped a bit better the last twice over further, whilst looking like his stamina was stretched on both occasions. This drop back down in trip should suit this one who can travel strongly before weakening and down the weights again, today could see him in a better light.
3.25 Southwell - 1pt e/w Coco Bear @ 8/1
Was an impressive winner at Yarmouth earlier in the year but hasn't been able to back that up since. However, has had excuses along the way and the drop back to 6f for this free going sort will suit. Has fallen down the handicap for defeats in races where things haven't gone its way and if taking to the surface can go better today. 

todays selections

HEREFORD 13:55 Guy 3/1 win

EXETER 14:05 Adicci 15/4 win

HEREFORD 14:30 Demopolis 5/4 win

EXETER 14:40 Innisfree Lad 9/4 win

plus win yankee

Can't see this topic started so will do so myself; perhaps everyone has set off early for Christmas ?
12.35 Exeter Coquelicot £4.20 win with Bet365  = possible return of £15.75.  I feel that this horse will perform even better on the heavy going today and perhaps the cheek pieces will bring about some improvement in its jumping.  It seems far too early to write this one off with its former good bumper performances.  Pure Bliss will be very popular with Harry Fry's record of winning this race three of the last seven runnings.  However, I'm not so sure that it will handle the underfoot conditions.  It also carries a 6lbs penalty (thought I'd abandoned handicap racing so I don't understand that) so I'll go for the second favourite to win here.
Hats off to Harry Fry with Pure Bliss winning well.  £4.20 won't break the bank so I'll have another go this evening at Chelmsford.
6.00 Kondo Isami £5.30 win 3.40 on the Betfair Exchange = poss profit of £12.47.  This horse finished in front of the second favourite last time and a left hand track should suit for the Mark Johnston runner.  John Gosden's apparent best horse is a non-runner today
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Well, it looks like all the money came for Gosden's Louis Armstrong despite Kondo Isami having beaten it last time.  Pity I don't get BOG any more as my horse drifted to 100/30
Anyway one winner and one loser £9.50 staked and £17.77 returned so a profit of £8.27.  The balance on this account is £505.25 so it is now in a small profit ?.
I am starting to like this idea of just one/two, possibly three to four max selections with a cap of around £20 per day. I wish I had switched to non handicap races a long time ago.  I think I will try to avoid the big races though as the competition is fierce.
 
 

Hello, thank you for making contact and your interest in this.
It is actually quite straighforward, you select to back your selection at Betfair SP. There is then a "Set SP odds limit" box to tick on the Betfair SP section and you simply put 5.0 in the option then for what odds you want the "min" to be. The system is built/recorded using BSP so I can't comment about other exchanges/using BOG etc.
 
 
 
 
 
 

There's some videos on youtube covering it for anyone that's having any issues.
Yesterday was very nearly an excellent start. We won €134 on the day anyway for the 5 horses at 5.0 BSP or above to Win but Comeatchoo traded from 12.53 into 1.17 only to be beaten by a neck in a very tight finish.
Win Bank +€3,955

Here's todays selections; just to note again, we're backing to Win only where the BSP price is 5.0 or above.
 

13:05 EXETER Dock Road 14:15 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Arzaak 14:50 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Passional 15:15 EXETER Bogoss Du Perret 15:25 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Accrington Stanley 16:00 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Grimsthorpe Castle 16:35 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Notation 16:55 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Who Cares Wins 17:10 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Compass Point 17:45 SOUTHWELL (A.W) Pearl Of Qatar 19:00 CHELMSFORD (A.W) Red Verdon  
 

Thursday 17/12/2020
Exeter 02:40 INNISFREE LAD
f/c. 7/2
Stake =  10 pts. WIN

I have same problem of so prices occasionally drifting out of 'system' price... But it's breakeven out of system price so okay for me. Accountant what is lsp with new rules?

Just wanted to give you all some stats to back up what we are at here & note two tweeks on the system.

Here's the results for this system (with the tweek we're about to implement included) over the recent years.

Please note that these results are all listed at Betfair SP and after a full discount of 5% for commission. (In the vast majority of cases people are getting 2% and in some cases 0% commission or using BOG, so these results below would be your worst case scenario profits wise).
 
Year Win Backs Place Backs 2016 127.26 3.97 2017 157.97 73.51 2018 -50.89 -33.30 2019 128.36 -17.49 2020 123.82 -26.62 Total 486.52 0.07
So we have 4 huge years profits with the Wins and one loss making year in the last 5 (for reference 2015 & 2014 we also in profit). The places over the last 5 years are now at breakeven and now we are going to use this info to tweek where we are at.

1. From now on the selections will need to have a minimum WIN Betfair SP of 5.0 to be backed. Any selection below this at the off will be ignored. So I'm backing selections to WIN with a BSP minimum of 5.0.

2. We are going to stop backing & recording the "places" in the interim. I will stay recording these results in the back ground and we will revisit this in 2021. No backs on the Place market for selections at all.

On this basis todays selections are;
 
12:20 LUDLOW Kakamora 13:45 NEWBURY Magic Of Light 14:10 LINGFIELD (A.W) Comeatchoo 14:45 LINGFIELD (A.W) Lady Pendragon 14:55 NEWBURY Atlantic Storm 16:00 KEMPTON (A.W) Touchwood 17:05 KEMPTON (A.W) Eagle One 17:35 KEMPTON (A.W) Shady McGee 18:05 KEMPTON (A.W) Delicate Kiss 18:35 KEMPTON (A.W) Tipperary Jack 20:05 KEMPTON (A.W) Combine  
 

Not even close 

hatcher out for a run was not fit

Competitive little class 2 at Ludlow, which I’ll have a go at as I’m back from work early . Some value in the race, too. 
 
Litterale Ci 22.5
Caid Du Lin 22.2 
I’ll play both of them 5 points on both . 
 
Litterale Ci 9/1
Caid Du Lin 5/1

Very disappointing run ...just never got going ...

All prices Bet365:
12.00 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Youarenotforgiven @ 20/1
12.10 Newbury - 1pt e/w Tinnahalla @ 11/1
12.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Penpal @ 25/1
1.20 Ludlow - 1pt e/w Aurelia Or @ 18/1
1.55 Ludlow - 1pt e/w Generous Day @ 9/1
2.10 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Ghepardo @ 33/1

1230 ling
Everyone is all over the fav mustaqqur with Ryan Moore on board and I can see why but ....AHORSECALLEDWANDA has caught my eye here .....absolutely blew the start last time and still managed to record a fast time in defeat ...that looks a very decent performance on paper and although has had plenty of opportunity in the past ....it could be the combination of hitting peak form and low draw could set him free today .....6/1 ew 5places with sky looks a shot to nothing if he gets out the stalls surely ...?
10pts ew 6/1 sky 5places 

Dec +14
12.10 New Overpriced Mixer 9/4 Lost
* 13.55 Lud Hatcher 14/1 pp Lost
16.45 Dun  Irwin 8/1 Lost
17.35 Kem Autumn Twilight  8/1 Lost 
Prices as of now b365 
* addition 
-4
Dec +10 

I'll persevere with Henderson's horses even though his record so far this month has been poor, with an AE of 0.70.
He has 9 runners, the 2 I will be backing are :-
Newbury 12.10 OVERPRICED MIXER 9/4
Ludlow 3.05 DOCTE DINA 4/1 (BET365 Feature 4/1 Offer Race)

Small profit 2nd 2.66

6.10 Wolverhampton - 0.5pts e/w Free Degrees @ 66/1 Bet365
The favourite looks to hold all the aces but I thought the places were up for grabs and at the prices thought it might be worth a small investment on Free Degrees who failed to enter the stalls last time but is related to a decent 2yo and an all-weather winner over a mile. May well need a bit more time but in a thin looking race will have a small play at a huge price.
6.40 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Kodiac Brown Bear @ 18/1 Bet365
Drops back in trip after a decent run over 7f when last seen but is speedy enough on the evidence of its 6f runs and on his third around Chester earlier in the year, this mark looks potentially decent. Has to prove himself over the trip but at such a generous price I thought he could go well if getting a handy position.
7.10 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Nezar @ 8/1 Bet365
Didn't act around Southwell last time but that can happen when you get behind the kickback there and previously had been running well at this track. This course and distance is optimum and I think is capable of bouncing back this evening.