Wildgarden

All prices Bet365:
 
12.30 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Run After Genesis @ 12/1
Needs everything to drop right but is down to a handy mark and has been running okay of late despite some sloppy starts. This sharp mile plays to his strengths however, he's well drawn on the inside and if plotting a safe passage, looks a big price at double figure odds. 
12.45 Musselburgh - 2pts win Paper Promise @ 5/1
Was a decent bumper horse who has won a novice hurdle but failed to back that up in handicaps. However, can be a free going sort so 2m4f has stretched it at times, as did two miles at a stiff track at Newcastle in a hotter contest than this. Ought to come on for last time and this easier track should suit its style so in a modest race I think can land this off a reducing mark.
1.45 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Always Tipsy @ 13/2
Has been returning to the boil after an absence and improving run by run with a decent enough second last time out. These conditions suit and whilst getting on a bit now, is off a winnable mark. Crucially has one of the best, if not the best jockey in this amateur jockeys race and that can be a significant plus on a horse who looks likely to run its race.
2.05 Lingfield - 1pt e/w El Hombre @ 11/1
Is sliding down the weights without running terribly but wasn't given the best of rides having drifted in the market last time and is further down the weights now. Will pop up before long under these sort of conditions off this mark and I'm hoping today can be the day with plenty of pace on in here which should suit his closing style.
2.35 Lingfield - 1pt e/w The Good Ting @ 12/1
Did too much too soon over 7f at Kempton last time but only faded late in the day and this drop to 6f is perfect off a handy mark. Looks sure to give his running from a prominent sit and I think he's well overpriced here.
3.25 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Termonator @ 16/1
Form tailed off in its last couple of runs but has been given a break since and this one has gone well fresh before. Has form around here too off a higher mark and had been consistent previously so I'm hoping that the break will have done him good and he can bounce back with blinkers on for the first time today as if doing so, his mark looks fair and his price is attractive.

todays selections


NEWCASTLE 13:55 Solo Saxophone 11/4 win

LINGFIELD 14:05 Pop Dancer 9/1 e/w 4 Places

NEWCASTLE 15:55 Spiorad 5/1 e/w 3 Places

NEWCASTLE 16:25 Look Out Louis 7/2 win
plus e/w yankee

Also
LINGFIELD 14:05 Merhoob 9/2 4 Places

NEWCASTLE 16:25 Gunmetal 9/2 3 Places
e/w double

Again very few non handicaps for me to look at.  I have decided to back Captain Cooper for £7.10 at 13/8 with Betfair.  Duty Of Care (Sir Michael Stoute) is favourite at around evens.  However, Captain Cooper is clear top rated on RPR and Timeform.  It also has a lot of tipsters recommending it which makes me worry that its price will shorten up tomorrow morning through to post time.  This is why I have backed it now

2.15 Southwell - Luscifer 5pts win @ 11/10 B365
On a potential three timer here over course/distance, the 2nd LTO (Geography Teacher) franked the form by winning next time out.
 
4.45 Southwell - Salam Al Faisal 5pts place @ 4/9 B365
Looks capable of at least placing here, the 5lb rise in the ratings may be enough to stop him winning outright though. The 4th LTO (Spring Romance) won next time and is running in an earlier race here today, which may further frank the form if winning. I'll also place a 2pt double (Luscifer to win, Salam Al Faisal to place) too.
2pt double - Luscifer (to win)/Salam Al Faisal (to place) @ 2.03/1
 
Total outlay 12pts

Dec -3
1pt level stakes win only 
14.20 Fak Pasley 10/1 Lost
15.30 Thu  King Kali  40/1 Lost
15.45 Sou Fair Alibi  5/1 Lost
All prices as of now b365 
-3 
Dec -6

todays selections

FAKENHAM 13:15 Juge Et Parti 11/1 e/w 3 Places

FAKENHAM 14:20 Glimpse of Gold 10/1 3 Places

SOUTHWELL 15:45 Duke Of Firenze 11/2 e/w 3 Places

plus e/w trixie

145 fakenham eceparti 4.4 smarkets
215 southwell Lucifer 11/10 black type
415 southwell spring romance evens black type
445 southwell phantasmal 4.7 smarkets
Wins and 4 fold at 67-1

Slim pickings today...nowt at prices but hopefully can get a couple up. All prices Bet365:
1.15 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Todd @ 13/2 (goes best at this track, better ground will suit and back down to a handy mark in a poor race)

1.45 Fakenham - 2pts win Eceparti @ 3/1 (didn't stay over 3 miles last time and needed the run first time up. Conditions suit, nearly won here on his only previous visit and on a competitive mark)

2.20 Fakenham - 2pts win Chess Player @ 7/2 (shaped well in novice races and looks on a fair enough mark on both of his last two runs. Hopefully is ridden a bit handier now handicapping around this sharp track as looks capable of landing this.)

3.45 Southwell - 2pts win Drakefell @ 11/2 (plenty of form under these conditions and wasn't disgraced last time despite a marked drift in the market. Possibly will come on for that as it was its first run in almost two months so good chance here.)

A poor day for Henderson yesterday with 5 losers although Buzz was 2nd in the big handicap hurdle. He has one runner today in the 3.20 at Fakenham,                                 ONE HANDSOME DUDE at 4/1.

ASCOT 12.40
HUNTSMANS JOG 5/1
£20 WIN BET365

Ascot 150 Benny's King 11/2
Wolv. 430 Amor Fati 8/1
£10 ew double skybet. 

just like to say NOT SO SLEEPY what a horse made my xmas never a dull moment  

I think there’s less to work out by concentrating on graded races, particularly grade 1&2. There’s also less value, but then again some may say Paisley Park was value at 5/2 today.  I’ve thought about just concentrating on the top races as I think I’d have a better strike rate, but I like trying to work out the handicaps.  

Mister Malarky  1pt  win   3 00 ascot   19.5 betfair 
Night Edition   3 35 ascot   1pt  win  34/1  betfair
Higest  Sun   2 40  Haydock  1pt  win  11/1  betfair
Mujid  6 00  Wolvs   1pt  win  win  28.32  betfair 
Poyle Vinne  Wolvs  1pt  win  22/1  betfair
Typhoon  Ten  1pt  win  19.20  betfair

One qualifier for my young handicappers system in the 2.15 at Newcastle.
JOIE DE VIVRE 15/2

150 Ascot - Saint De Vassy 5/1 sky bet £ back if 2nd 3rd or 4th.  ?
The 10Lb rise for 11L win at Exeter will need to see him stepping up his game in this higher class race & upped the extra 2f in trip but is still fresh from 1 run this season & a 27 day break won't mind conditions & trainer having a superb season.
150 Ascot - Gardefort 28/1 betfair ( 4 places ). 2nd 33/1
Has had a 588 day break but lots of Venetia Williams charges this season have had 2-300 day breaks & ran well 1st time out , has won 3 of 6 career wins on soft & heavy with a further 9 placed efforts from 38 career starts & getting absolute lumps of weight of most of the field.
335 Belfast Banter 12/1 betfair ( 6 places )  5th ?
The obligatory Irish raider who've done very well on Saturdays , a bit of a quirk & quick tip after having eye on The Jam Man in 2.25 now a non runner .
Tip has 2 wins & 7 placed efforts from 14 starts , only out of first 3 once in last 6 runs , has a flyweight & won't mind conditions.
 

Dec +3 
11.45 Lin Magic Roundabout 5/1 Lost
13.50 Asc Smarty Wild 7/1 Lost
13.50 Asc Drumcliffe 9/1 Lost
14.25 Asc Roksana 4/1 Lost
14.40 Hay  Salty Boy  18/1 Lost
Prices as of now b365 
* addition 
20.00 Wol Step Sister 9/1 Lost
-6
Dec -3 
 
 

ASCOT 13:50 Drumcliff 11/1 e/w 4 Places

ASCOT 14:25 Paisley Park 2/1 win

ASCOT 15:00 Beware The Bear 12/1 e/w 4 Places

ASCOT 15:35 Buzz 6/1 e/w 5 Places
plus e/w yankee

ASCOT 13:50 Mengli Khan 11/1 e/w 4 Places

ASCOT 15:35 Night Edition 20/1 e/w 5 Places
plus e/w double

All prices Bet365:
11.45 Lingfield - 2pts win Roundabout Magic @ 13/2
Back down to his last winning mark when winning over c&d by a length earlier this year. Has drifted quite badly in the market since and not quite reproduced that but hopefully he holds up today in the betting as he has an excellent chance under optimum conditions off a mark of 60. Ought to be finishing fast.
12.15 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Heath Rise @ 8/1
Has a duck egg next to his name from one start but was beaten less than 7 lengths that day in a strong looking Kempton maiden. The horse who finished one place ahead of him has managed to win a maiden next time out and Heath Rise represents a yard whose horses tend to come on plenty for their debut. Can put his experience to good use I hope and go forward as there's plenty of stamina in the pedigree so quite a lot to like.
12.40 Ascot - 1pt e/w Fawsley Spirit @ 10/1
Not as classy as most of these, nor unexposed, but ran a huge race last time when miles clear with the winner and has only gone up 5lbs for that. Seems to have turned a corner recently having been a good 2nd to a 140-rated chaser in a point to point a couple of starts back and this slog should suit this one. Is off a featherweight which looks sure to help in these conditions so should go well.
1.50 Ascot - 1pt e/w Not Another Muddle @ 14/1
Didn't fire at the festival in March but has plenty of old form that would give him a big chance here. Back to the same mark when a solid 2nd at Fontwell behind a thriving horse at the time and these conditions look just about right for him. Has another absence to overcome here but has gone well fresh before and despite having wellbeing to prove, looks worth a chance at the price.
2.05 Haydock - 1pt e/w Chirico Vallis @ 10/1
His hattrick attempt was narrowly denied last time out when chinned by a horse who subsequently ran well in a competitive handicap at Aintree off a higher mark the following race. Conditions suit Neil Mulholland's charge and looks likely to put in another bold effort from a prominent sit. Has been bumped further up the weights for that 2nd but Kevin Brogan jumps aboard to take 7lbs off his back and that could make the difference this afternoon.
2.40 Haydock - 1pt e/w Salty Boy @ 18/1
Has to jump better today but there has been some promise in his two most recent starts when finding things happening too quickly for him. His jumping put him in the back foot and stopped him building up momentum but finished with running left in him and the return to a bit further and softer ground might just help him today. Cheekpieces are on to focus him a bit and the left handed track can help as he can jump out that way. Needs to do better but is at a backable price so will chance him off a light weight.
3.35 Ascot - 2pts win Time Flies By @ 6/1
Is the favourite and goes handicapping in just about as hotter race as he could find but looks dangerously treated in my opinion considering I think he's not been running under optimum conditions the last twice. Was a solid 3rd in a hot race on hurdling debut despite making mistakes and his mark on that evidence looks good. Shaped as if the drop back to a strongly run 2 miles would suit on his two latest runs so handicapping off 129 under what I'd consider to be ideal conditions now, can take all the beating if jumping okay.

Very soft ground is the call for the two terrestrial TV meetings on Saturday and here’s a skip through those races.
 
Ascot 1.50 2m 3f Handicap Chase 
Tom Symonds is having a terrific season and his string remain in excellent form. He saddles Saint De Vassy here who was impressive when winning at Exeter a month ago by 11 lengths. The handicapper has stuck him up 10lb for that win but the way he won makes me think he can defy that new mark. Drumcliff has a good record at this track and looks interesting with trainer Harry Fry’s sister in law Annie O’Connor in the plate. Early De Lemo is one of two Gary Moore runners and can make his presence felt after being touched off by a stable mate last time. 
SAINT DE VASSY 1 point each way  @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5 1-2-3-4
 
Haydock 2.05 2m 3f Handicap Hurdle 
War Lord has been raised 7lb for his course and distance win 4 weeks ago and can confirm the form here with Our Power who finished some 3 ¼ lengths back in third and is now 6lb better off. There shouldn’t be much between them but I thought Colin Tizzard’s 5 year old won decisively enough. The Last Day is interesting as he can race here off of a 8lb lower mark over hurdles than his smart chase form but he does have an absence to overcome. 
WAR LORD 1 point win @ 10/3 william hill
 
Ascot 2.25 3m 1/2f Long Distance Walk Hurdle 
There shouldn’t be much between Thyme Hill and Paisley Park strictly on their Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle run at Newbury three weeks ago but Philip Hobb’s Thyne Hill is two year’s younger and this is only his 9th ever contest -he may still be improving and I’ll take him to confirm the form on slightly worse terms. Main Fact did us a favour when winning at Haydock a month ago and this represents a step up in grade. He’s a remarkable horse who’s won his last 9 races (jumps and flat) and shouldn’t be totally dismissed. The mare Roksana gets a valuable 7lb mares allowance and her 3m form gives her a chance as well. A cracker of a race and though I have every respect for Main Fact I’m with Thyne Hill. 
THYNE HILL 2 points win 2/1 bet365
 
Haydock 2.40 3m 1 1/2f Handicap Chase 
The front two in the betting were both impressive last time but both have hefty rise's to overcome and I’ll be looking further down the handicap for a bet in this race.
Sojourn is up 11lb for his easy Carlisle win whilst Hill Sixteen is up 15lb for his last ditch victory over hurdles at Newbury from Lil Rockerfeller. Roll Again and Crixus’s Escape also have rises of 6lb to overcome and it’s the bottom weight Enqarde that takes my eye. Over from France he’s only had two runs for Dr Richard Newland, a 2nd in a Ascot handicap hurdle and an easy win at Newcastle over 2m 6f. For a 6 year old he’s quite experienced having been campaigned in France and this is his 19th race .He’s had 10 runs over fences in France. Conditional jockey Cillin Leonard’s, who’s ridden him on both starts over here, claim of 7lb brings his weight down to 10-2 which must be a bonus in such sapping conditions as he’ll be getting chunks of weight from the principals. 
ENQARDE 1 point each way @ 15/2 william hill 1/5 1-2-3
 
Ascot 3.00 3m Handicap Chase 
A competitive race where the key form race is the Ladbokes Trophy at Newbury from three weeks ago. The Conditional was 3rd, Beware The Bear 5th, Ardlethen 6th , Mister Malarkey unseated when looking beaten and Regal Encore pulled up.
The Conditional must go well here and has surprisingly been dropped a pound. However it’s Antony Honeyball’s Regal Encore that I’ll be backing each way. He comes alive at the Berkshire track and his form figures here are P10P132131 which includes this race in 2016 and 2019. 
REGAL ENCORE 1 point each way @ 7/1 william hill 1/5 1-2-3
 
Ascot 3.35 1m 7 1/2f Betfair Exchange Trophy (handicap hurdle) 
I previewed this in the week and am still sweet on Harry Fry’s Lightly Squeeze who has conditions to suit, has had a wind op (and wears a tongue tie) since we last saw him (has a big pull with favourite Buzz) and his trainer is in good form with an Exeter double on Thursday. Obviously there are many dangers including the aforementioned Buzz who looked very good over course and distance a month ago but has been hit by a 11lb rise. Benson also impressed when winning over the same course and distance a fortnight ago but he too has been raised 10lb. It would be no shock if either of them two were to win again. Harambe is the other runner I’ll be backing small ew at the enhanced place terms. He looks quite attractively handicapped despite crashing out at the last in two big handicaps on his last two runs when bang there with a chance.
 
LIGHTLY SQUEEZE (pictured below) (advised on Monday) 1 point each way @ 20/1 1-4 1-2-3-4
HARAMBE ½ point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5th odds 1-2-3-4-5-6
 
 

1.50 Ascot, Drumcliff 9/1
Bit up and down but his two visits to this track was a win over CD and also a very good third beaten 3 lengths by the smart Espoir De Guye, last time out. Shouldn’t mind the softer conditions either. On a very workable mark with 5Ibs claimer on board . 
 
2.40 Haydock , Sojourn 7/2
Up 11Ibs for his 15 length win last time out, but seems very progressive and is 2/2 on heavy . A lot to like about him and I think he’ll go close in a strong race. 
 
3.00 Ascot , Regal Encore 8/1
Old boy who has a bit more to do if he wants to repeat last years win in this race, but has everything in his favour with ground/distance/course. Runs off 150 but is still capable of pulling it off. 
 
3.35 Ascot , Malaya 10/1/ Master Debonair 25/1 ew
Very competitive race but Malaya  enjoys it here with figures of 14622. Runs well on soft but not sure she’ll want it too heavy, which brings me to Master Debonair who I think is over priced. Multi CD winner and also a winner on heavy over CD this time last year. Disappointing last time out, but may have needed the run in which was a very strong race on good ground running off 149. Runs off 147 here with a claimer taking off another useful 7Ibs . 
 

150 ascot 
Tough little race and a lot could hinge on the ground .......enrichisant ...catches the eye ....will love the ground and has patchy form that would give him a big chance with conditions to suit 
Mengli Khan has moved to Henderson and form on paper looks very strong although hes an unknown quantity in hcaps .....could be anything so worth a punt 
Mengli khan 10pts ew 11/1 bet365
Enrichisant 10pts ew 12/1 bet365 

Thanks. Always nice when they are backed from 28/1 in to 11/1. I'll stick with Mr Henderson for the rest of the month, he won't owe me anything now.

Spot on Rupert, thanks for sharing 
 
wow 11/1 winner as well, unfortunately I didn't follow that one!

Wonderful result.  Early Xmas bonus for your followers ?