Wildgarden

A couple of young handicappers for today.
WARWICK 2.25 SHAH AN SHAH 16/1
PUNCHESTOWN 2.40 WINGIN A PRAYER 7/1

420 Newcastle Dandy's angel win and place Betfair sp / 25-1 paddy power for Ew double
450 Newcastle perfect soldier win and place Betfair sp / 18-1 paddy power for Ew double
493-1 Ew double paddy power and the Betfair sp wins.

todays top rated selections


LINGFIELD 12:25 Thegreatestshowman 15/8 win

LINGFIELD 13:00 Furzig 9/4 win ( next in rating # 6)

LINGFIELD 14:00 Fox Duty Free 8/13 win ( next in rating # 3)

LINGFIELD 14:35 Queens Course 2/1 win (Next in rating # 7)

A few outsiders
3.10 punchestown Otzi 20/1  3rd
1.35 punchestown Coventry 22/1 6 places e w e bet365  2nd 50/1 shame i did e w e 
1.05 punchestown Twilight girl 20/1
12.50 Warwick madam deluxe 20/1 5 places bet365 lost
2.50 Newcastle almost a angel 10/1  2nd
 
all bets 50p e/w ???

I really like moxy mare ....I'm hoping for a big run today but I think dandys angel is way overpriced ....shoukd be around 12/1 I reckon so 28.0 looks a bit silly ....keep playing the value bets and sooner or later one of them will go in ...that's my strategy lol

Very interesting runner today in the 1.20 Warwick.  TEMPLIER is for me over priced at around the 10/1 (Hills 4 places 1/5 odds) mark.
Trained by Katie Stephens, who's a small permit trainer in Allensmore in Herefordshire, he probably needed his re-appearance back over hurdles when 80/1in November. But his chasing form from last season needs close scrutiny. He was a 25/1 winner at Hereford from a 6lb lower mark than today's from Delface and was serving it up to the now 140 rated chaser Ibleo when crashing out at the last at Wincanton. Ibleo has obviously improved plenty since and is now rated 140 so Templier looks a value each way bet at a double figure price with the firms paying extra places (Skybet are 5 places 1/5 the odds).
I don't know much about Ms Stephens but the only horse she has trained to win over the last 5 years has been Templier twice from 130 runners from her yard so I'm sure that factor will keep his odds relatively big. Hills actually put him in at 22/1 at the 48 hour stage which looks far too big and the 14/1 was all taken last night.
TEMPLIER (1.20 Warwick)  1 point each way @ 9/1 Skybet (1/5 odds1,2,3,4,5) or 10/1 Hills (1/5th odds 1,2,3,4)

420 newc 
Moxy mares 260 
Dandys angel  257 
Again....good value so I have to play 
Moxy mares 10pt win 11/1 willh 
Dandys angel 10pt win 28.0 betfair 

350 newc 
Indian pursuit  255
Jan van hoof  253 
 
Open race but good value on top 2 here so I have to play 
Indian pursuit 10pt win 9.0 betfair 
Jan van hoof 10pt win 19.0 betfair 

evens for the day £4 back for the 4th place 3,50 taunton

Dec 0
1pt level stakes win only 
13.45 MR Getaway Mag 9/2 Lost
15.00 Lim Alice O'Byrne 12/1 Lost
Prices as of now b365 
12.10 sees Falberto I mentioned yesterday now 5/4 from 20's   (allegedly ). Obviously a mistake initially 
-2
Dec -2 

A few outsiders 
12.35 Taunton grain de Thaix 22/1 4 places e w e bet365  lost
3.50 Taunton young o’leary 35/1 5 places e w e bet365  4th 
12.50 limerick king and queen 14/1  lost
3.30 Wolverhampton bright view 16/1 lost
50p e/w bet365 

todays top rated selections

MARKET RASEN 13:15 Theflyingportrait 3/1 win

TAUNTON 13:35 Ridgeway Flyer 14/1 e/w 3 Places (next in ratings # 1 and 3 )

MARKET RASEN 14:15 Red Giant 11/1 e/w 4 Places ( next in ratings # 7)

Plus e/w trixie

610 wolv
Golden force 266
Elmejor 264
De Vegas kid 262
Poetic force 261 
Another interesting race with lots of possibility ...I'll take prices on top 2 and roll the dice ...
Golden force 10pt win 4.6 betfair 
Elmejor 10pt win 14/1 bet365 
 

I have Taunton as the top course for course winners. The one I am backing tomorrow is in the 12.35, RUSSIAN SERVICE, available at 8/1.

225 wolv 
Top breeze 266
Astro Jakk 264 
El hombre  261 
El hombre has struggled in this class in the past so I'll take the top 2 as both have run well in this class 
Top breeze 10pt win 4/1 bet365 
Astro Jakk 10pt win 9/1 betvic 

Dec +5 
1pt level stakes win only 
14.15 Lim Thebellsofshandon 14/1Lost
14.40 New Orchardstown 25/1 Lost
15.55 Sou Tukhoom 7/2 Lost
15.55 Sou Xcelente 5/1 Lost
18.30 Sou May The Sixth 16/1 Lost
Prices as of now b365 
-5 
Dec 0
 

All prices Bet365:
12.00 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Debece @ 12/1
Was a very good horse a couple of years ago but had a long absence before returning last time out. Was pulled up but entitled to need that and has been given plenty of time since to get over that run. Should be fit now and has been given a chance by the handicapper. Is still only a 9 year old so you'd like to think will retain a good chunk of ability and can go well.
12.20 Newbury - 1.5pts e/w Roseisaroseisarose @ 13/2
Has improved with racing and is being well backed today which I think is understandable as she drops back in trip. Loomed up like a big threat over 2m4f at Leicester on handicap debut but just couldn't go on and shapes like a stiff 2 miles on soft ground will play perfectly to her strengths. Fairly treated on novice efforts and I think is a rock solid each-way bet this afternoon. 
12.55 Newbury - 1pt e/w Catfish Row @ 40/1
Competitive race but I just thought Michael Scudamore's runner was a shade overpriced considering he's unexposed on hurdling debut after just a few starts on the flat in France and shaped quite well in those. Considering he wouldn't be rated much inferior to the also unraced over jumps Just In Time here, there is a huge difference in the prices so if jumping okay and fit enough today, could just outrun the odds.
1.22 Kelso - 1pt e/w Taxmeifyoucan @ 12/1
Ran no race last time but that was inevitable once he drifted right the way out to 16/1 and on previous form, would have a big chance here. Off a fair mark, stays well and ran a big race here two starts back. Needs to bounce back but looks capable of doing so at a decent price.
1.30 Newbury - 2pts win Dickie Diver @ 5/1
Interesting that the market is holding up well for this one as his form is hugely attractive even if he hasn't been seen for a long time. Looked a top class horse in the making when running a good race in the Albert Bartlett last year and interesting that they go chasing with him straight away here. If he can jump he looks like he'll be capable off this mark and hopefully he's fully tuned up for this. 
2.20 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Percy Pops @ 12/1
Has gradually improved in his career to date having run okay in some novice events including over further last time off the back of an absence. Has been given another short break since and wind surgery, which if having a positive effect, should give him a sound chance now handicapping. Looks as if he stays a bit further than the trip here which can suit under these conditions and looks overpriced.
Also done an attractive looking treble at around 10/1:
11.40 Kelso - Sirwilliamwallace @ 6/4, 12.112 Kelso - Le Cheval Noir @ 5/4 and 1.10 Doncaster - Sometimes Always @ 5/6 

todays top rated selections

DONCASTER 12:00 Tanarpino 6/1 e/w 3 Places

DONCASTER 12:35 Flemcara 7/2 win

KELSO 13:22 Rock On Fruity 8/1 e/w 3 Places

KELSO 14:32 Defi Sacre 3/1 win

plus e/w yankee

Few each way long shots.
220 Donny - Suggestion 22/1 betfair
355 South - Glory Of Paris 14/1 bet365
430 South - Star Ascending 16/1 bet365.

Followed Johnny thanks

Few outsiders 
 limerick 1.05 Johnny girl 18/1
 Doncaster 1.10 rickety gate 100/1 lost
 Doncaster 2.55 hunters dawn 33/1 lost
kelso 1.57 grumpy mcgrumpface 50/1 lost
all bets 50/p e/w bet365  lost

Absolutely gutting was in my acca for £1500

Nooooooo....pipped on the line ?

price bet365 Mrs Milner @ 7/1 Leopardstown 12:40 Bacardys @ 12/1 Leopardstown 13:15 Rapid Response @ 6/1 Leopardstown 13:50 Delta Work @ 6/1 Leopardstown 14:25 Presenting Percy @ 15/2 Leopardstown 14:25 Elwood @ 14/1 Limerick 14:45 Sempo @ 15/2 Leopardstown 15:00

A different approach today. Limerick is one of those courses where course winners do well. In the 1.35 MOYODE LADY is the only course winner in the race so I'll have a small bet at 16/1.