Alastair

I hope you all have great day enjoy every minute mate 👍

I wish I had had the winner at 4/1 but I put it up at 4/11. I think you've misread it.

Man City v Brighton Over 2.5 goals @ 1.36
Nottm Forest v Luton Over 2.5 goals @ 1.91
£25 win double

...are a good bet or not, that is the question! Separate thread so as not to clutter up the L15 thread and so those who (understandably) don't want to wade through hypothetical waffle can look away now. Basically following on from a previous discussion with @Zilzalian, all figures based on Saturday's 1:15 at Ascot.
The overround on the win market (mid morning) was 109.7% with 365 (at SP it was 113.3%). Nothing unusual there; we know that some people can make a profit from backing winners and you can reduce the disadvantage by shopping around for best price or betting at BFSP. On the forecasts it was 135.1% so 365 are taking a lot more margin out of that market than the straight win. Stating the obvious to say that makes it much harder to win betting on forecasts than it is betting to win. You could find 3 runners that you rate well clear of the field and get great value about them in the win market. Back them in the forecast market and you're either getting worse value or no value whatsoever. The three horses put up for forecast purposes were priced at 3.5, 34 and 71 to win. If you remove the bookies margin (making the simplistic assumption of it being applied equally to all runners) that implies 365 had the true odds at 3.84, 37.3 and 77.89. Compare that for the forecasts involving the 3.5 and 34 shot; the prices offered were 76.78 and 126.97 whereas the "true" prices with no margin were 103.75 and 171.57. If they applied the same lower margin to the forecasts as they do to the win market you'd have been getting a less mean 94.57 and 156.38. Out of curiosity I looked at the prices you'd get backing a horse to win by dutching all 7 relevant forecasts and also to finish second by doing the same. The 33/1 shot paid 32.35 win and 20.66 to come 2nd while the 5/2 shot paid 2.84 win and 2.92 second. Suggesting that more margin is taken out of the fancied runners than the outsiders and (perhaps) more is taken out of the 2nd place element than the win. So much for the numbers themselves, I could do with a brew before I post my (relatively brief) conclusions. Hopefully no-one's breath is excessively bated!

Fulham v Sheff Utd Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85
Everton v Bournemouth Over 2.5 goals @ 1.8
£20 win double

I won't comment regarding tipsters who charge for their services but very simply any free to get tips which for a while show a profit will eventually become unprofitable as punters latch on to them and the odds on those selections get shorter.

The Irony.

This post by the op is incredibly identical to the 1000 spam posts which have frequented every racing forum since they began. You say you won’t mention this wonderful person you’ve found so why ask us? 
I’ve said it once before to the last person who popped his head above the paraphet and I’ll say it to you,
If it smells like spam it probably is!!
If this tipster is so wonderful give us the selections ante post and we’ll decide. Better still don’t bother.
 

I won't comment regarding tipsters who charge for their services but very simply any free to get tips which for a while show a profit will eventually become unprofitable as punters latch on to them and the odds on those selections get shorter.

I won't comment regarding tipsters who charge for their services but very simply any free to get tips which for a while show a profit will eventually become unprofitable as punters latch on to them and the odds on those selections get shorter.

Oceanline runs at ascot today for David Pipe and as such is a stable switcher with a twist.
Hes already run for Pipe over fences but this is his first flat run and is fit from hurdling and on a winning mark.
Dundalk the starting point of the supply line of Irish gambles on uk racetracks in particular the all weather is on today. The races crammed with runners and reserves who all take a hand in the outcome mean there is always scope there for a touch to be landed outside of the clutches of our overround fiddling bookies. It is not all plain sailing of course but there is always a “weigh in” ably assisted by some shrewd trainers…..
The mighty Rohaan is also in action and as a four times  course winner has to be respected as his trainers only runner today. Neil callan gets the gig fresh from sun power bolting up the other night under everyone’s unsuspecting eyes. I don’t buy that the cusp of the flat season is a tough time for punters. Opportunities  abound if you keep an open mind. Tons of tricks are being turned by trainers some horses are coming into their own and some are going off the boil.  Oh and there’s a horse returning to fontwell fresh from the flat and whose last three visits have been winners. The next winner is close to hand.

Spurs v Liverpool Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40
Bournemouth v Arsenal Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53
Wolves v Man City  Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53
£20 win treble

1 of the 2 not to finish !

Newton Abbot 4.25
Slate Lane
Bet365   5/6

Kevin Stott fired by Amo Racing after King Of Steel's defeat on Saturday.
I think being retained jockey to that outfit will prove to be racing's equivalent of managing Watford FC with a constant turnover of jockeys.

Kevin Stott fired by Amo Racing after King Of Steel's defeat on Saturday.
I think being retained jockey to that outfit will prove to be racing's equivalent of managing Watford FC with a constant turnover of jockeys.

Kevin Stott fired by Amo Racing after King Of Steel's defeat on Saturday.
I think being retained jockey to that outfit will prove to be racing's equivalent of managing Watford FC with a constant turnover of jockeys.

Kevin Stott fired by Amo Racing after King Of Steel's defeat on Saturday.
I think being retained jockey to that outfit will prove to be racing's equivalent of managing Watford FC with a constant turnover of jockeys.

Man City v Fulham  Over2.5 goals @ 1.40
Burnley v Tottenham Over 2.5 goals @ 1.61
£25 win double

Selection a non runner so :
Goodwood 4.25
Lord Riddiford
William Hill   7/4

1535 Y - Live In The Dream @ 40-1 ew Bet365

Newton Abbot 5.00
Lelantos
William Hill  13/2    1/2point each way

Newton Abbot 5.00
Lelantos
William Hill  13/2    1/2point each way

Trainers want horses running in races they are capable of winning and by now a lot of horses have been put in their place by Paddington and Mostahdaf so they don't fancy turning out again to be beaten. Obviously Desert Crown would have been there but for injury, which is nobody's fault, and King of Steel's connections didn't want to run so close to the King George- which has always been an issue in this particular race ever since the first running when Brigadier Gerrard suffered his only defeat. Additionally the French no longer seem interested. Despite all of that I think I am right in saying that over the past 15 years or so this has been the highest rated race run in England. The race could turn out to be a thriller; the Eclipse was and I think you were trotting out the same argument beforehand.
There are a couple of outsiders for you with Nashwa and The Foxes.

We've had this discussion before but :
1. Even with 4 runners it's still a very strong race.
2. If your proposal for voiding was adopted then the likes of Coolmore/Godolphin/Shadwell would enter a load of no-hopers to make sure the entries threshold was met.