Tiffy
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Posts posted by Tiffy
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On 28/02/2017, 07:12:28, Pep004 said:
I would say that yield is even better than ROI. But of course it depends on individual. Anyway I believe that each tipster should use spreadsheet for stats.
Hi @Pep004, what is the difference between yield & ROI? Are they not the same thing?
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4 hours ago, harry_rag said:
That's not the worst looking bet at the 4/1 available. I've also bought cross corners at the generally available 26 (home x away). Having taken on board Tiffy's views about Newcastle's prospects I'd rather have both teams on side and be less dependent on the game going a particular way. That line's just low enough to tempt me in. For a fixed odds bet, PP offer evens for Newcastle multi corners to be >4.5 and that looks decent to me.
How did you get on with these bets @harry_rag?
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4 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Good to see you in here after our rugby-related interaction, Harry. Interesting bet. I'm eager to see how that pans out. I really want to back Brighton to win with Glen Murray any time scorer. My head says no but my heart says "shut up head, you're a boring douche bag!". Heart it is! Sorry, @Tiffy! If you lose it's all my fault!
Well @StevieDay1983, seeing as I am just back from the match & it is clearly your fault, I will be putting you on the list in my little black book. Come the day of the revolution, you will be first up against the wall, rat tat tat......!
I was right to avoid the results markets,, although I still think we should have got something from the game. Well done Geordies, go & beat Huddersfield on Saturday to open up the gap.
Corner bets won. Newcastle won the first half 4-1 & the game 6-3.. I nearly took Newcastle on a -2 first half handicap at over 5/1 too!
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BRIGHTON V NEWCASTLE
SELECTIONS
My gut feeling is that we won't lose tonight. As I said before Newcastle are going to have to come and take the game to us, especially as they have another tough game on Saturday. They will want to try and take something from this game. I feel that this will play into Brightons hands, and our quick counter attacking style could prove decisive. A draw will suit us nicely though, we will be reminding the away end which team is still top at the end of the game, if that happens!
However, I fancy the corner markets again. In their last 5 away league games, Newcastle lead the count 29-22.
Brightons last 5 home league games yield a loss of 31-20
If Brighton go a goal up, then Newcastle will have to up the intensity and attack, attack, attack
So I am going for
Newcastle most corners 2.25
Newcastle +1 corner handicap 1.8
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- Brighton V Newcastle
- Match Facts
- Brighton's only defeat in their last seven matches against Newcastle in all competitions (W4 D2) came earlier this campaign in a 2-0 loss at St. James' Park.
- The Magpies have never scored a goal at the Amex Stadium in two previous games there, both in the FA Cup.
- The Seagulls have lost one of their last 19 home league games on a Tuesday (W14 D4), losing 1-0 to Ipswich in December 2015.
- Newcastle, meanwhile, haven't lost an away game on a Tuesday since going down to Spurs in December 2010, winning four and drawing three since.
- Magpies striker Daryl Murphy has scored in each of his last four Championship appearances against Brighton (four goals).
- Murphy is the highest scoring Championship opposition player at the Amex (since 2011-12), netting four goals in five previous appearances.
- The Magpies are yet to win a Championship game in which they've conceded the first goal this season (D1 L6), while Brighton have won 18 out of 18 games in which they've scored first.
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14 minutes ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Brilliant summary there, Tiffy! That's why you're so valuable around here! Brighton can't get promoted. We'll lose you to that bloody Premier League thread!
One key factor is that it's a long midweek haul for Newcastle. Brighton must be rubbing their hands. I am tempted to back a score draw but I just think Brighton could do it. I hope you do. I remember when we were back in the old Division Three with you. I seem to remember you pipped us (I say pipped, think you sealed it 2-3 games before the end of the season) and Chesterfield to the title that season as well. Bobby Zamora tearing it up. What a time to be alive!
Valuable! Haha, Injust hope some of the info proves useful! But thanks for that @StevieDay1983
That period you refer to was before I came on board. I had just moved to Sussex from Luton, and you couldn't get a ticket at the Withdean. It wasn't till my son started supporting Brighton that I got back into watching live football again. We have had season tickets since the Amex was built, and I have seen the transition of the club. Through my job, I talk to many footy fans, most of whom are Albions supporters, so I understand the club & all that it stands for.
But yes, what a time to be alive, I just they can go all the way this season. We have the best Chairman, the best chief exec, a great manager & a great squad. The ground, training facilities & ongoing development means that the foundations are laid for us to play at a higher level.
oh, and don't forget pie-ology will come into play tomorrow night too!
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Big game @StevieDay1983, no it's only Newcastle!
Yes, it was always going to be a massive game this season, and I will now bring you the latest from the south coast.
BRIGHTON V NEWCASTLE
Without wishing to sound arrogant, there is a feeling here that this is OUR season. Newcastle can have the title, Brighton just want automatic promotion & the fans can feel it happening this season. But I feel the Goerdies are on a wobble at the moment. Being 0-2 down to Bristol City at the weekend won't sit well with their supporters. There are no injuries or suspensions for us, and I think they have Dwight Gayle missing. We are top, and they are going to have to come & play for the win. The pressure on them to win the title is massive, and it isn't for us, as everyone expects them to finish as chamipions.
They will have to come and take the game to us, they need the win, we can settle for a draw, but I don't think we will. The crowd this season have been immense, the noise levels at the Amex are through the roof, and the ground will be full to capacity on Tuesday. The fans will play there part, and I can see the pressure getting to the Geordies.
if Brighton score first, they should go onto win.
if Newcastle score first, back Brighton to score next.
When Sam Baldock plays, we never Lose! (NEVER)
I think Newcastle will have the most corners, and that the game will be a full blood and guts affair. Will they be able to cope with our pace up front?
I will do some research and post some selections later. I will update you fully with any info coming out too.
- harry_rag and StevieDay1983
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Well I wasn't too far out.
i selected Brighton total corners U5.5, they had 6, and U5 first half corners, there were 6 altogether!
i ended up backing Reading on the +1 corner handicap. The corner count was 6-5, so I was willing them to break forward late on to try and get a cross in! But incredibly, on the 89th minute, at 3-0 down, they are still rolling it out from the back!
we had a similar style of play when Gus Poyet was in charge of Brighton. This philosophy that "if we have the ball, then the opposition can't score".Reading has 65% possession. Jose Mourinho once said, it's not how much of the ball you have, it's what you do with it when you have it that matters.
Watching BRIGHTON under Gus, I said that a team will never get promoted from the Champinship playing Tikka- Takka. This league is based on pace & power, that's why Huddersfield are doing so well, as that is the German way too.
i don't know if anyone agrees, but that's my opinion for what it is worth!
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I have just checked Readibgs corner stats for their last game- away to Huddersfield. They had 3!
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31 minutes ago, skyblues88 said:
My bets for this weekend are:
- NEWCASTLE 1/2 - Newcastle to beat struggling Bristol City at home to keep the pressure on Brighton in their later kick off.
- BRENTFORD 1/2 - Brentford to see off a poor Rotherham side. Brentford are coming off the back of a good 2-1 win away at Sheffield Wednesday whereas Rotherham have lost 16 out of 17 away league matches.
- MAN UTD to lift the trophy 2/5 - Man Utd are on fine form. They have only lost once since the 4th November, the second leg away at Hull which they qualified in anyway. I fear for Southampton in central defence. Jose Fonte sold and Virgil Van Dijk ruled out injured. I don't think Yoshida or young Jack Stephens will be able to cope with Zlatan. Having Man Utd to lift the trophy provides a bit of cover if they fail to win in 90 minutes but do it in extra time or penalties.
As for my team Coventry, we have a massive home match with Swindon on Saturday afternoon. If we were to win and results go our way we could be only 6 points off safety with a game in hand, a lot better than before kick off last week where we were 11 points adrift of safety. We still have a mountain to climb but last week was our first league win in 16 games and back to back wins would be a massive confidence boost with 2 big away games to follow (at Bury and in-form Shrewsbury). I can't give anybody a good bet for this game so I will not be touching it.
Russell Slade saved Brighton from relegation when we were in L1. He has become a cult hero with the Brighton fans, and he can do the same with you. He has been around the block and has lots of experience with this sort of situation. Have faith!
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3 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Just been confirmed that Warnock is staying for next season where he will look to have a "real go" at promotion. Expect every game now to be a trial for the current squad. Watch us
lose disappointinglyhammer Fulham tomorrow!
That will be a massive boost for the club. I think the Albion fans call him Colin, not sire why!
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BRIGHTON V READING
Two massive games coming up. Firstly Reading on Saturday, then Newcastle on Tuesday.
This is a game that Albion will need to win if they want to gain automatic promotion, though the price of 1.66 doesn't hold any appeal. They have been a bit off form recently, and will need to get back to their best in order to beat a good Reading side. I don't think that there will be a lot of goals though, just a gut feeling rather than any statistic.
I do notice though, when I watch games, how few corners there are, especially from Brighton. Does anyone know a decent corner stats website? In the Ipswich game I backed U5 first half goals, which won. I have a feeling that it could be similar here. I fancy a slow burner to start, combined with Readings possession/Dutch style, and Albion lack of corners in general. The away team usually have the most corners.
i have analysed the last 5 home & away games. At the Amex the away sides have won the corner count 3/5, giving a total of 27-31 corners. This includes a 0-10 to Sheff Weds, a game which BRIGHTON went behind, saved a penalty, then had to come back to win 2-1, and yet they didn't gain 1 corner.
Away from the Amex, the home teams have won the corner count 5/5, with a count of 38-22. In the last 5 away league matches, Brighton have never had more corners than their opponents.
So, I think I will go for
UNDER 5 FIRST HALF CORNERS - 1.95
BRIGHTON U 5.5 CORNERS - 2.0
Good luck
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Think I'd leave Brighton's results markets alone for the next 2 games. Maybe a corners bet only. Brighton never seem to have many, and Reading will play a possession based style of football. But will take a look later
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13 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:
Tut Tut Tiffy, wrong thread!
Leverkusen are a funny team. They have the ability to score shitloads of goals and I just think I'd be be not wanting to look at the TV if I had an under 2.5 with them in it! AM are very defensive though, so it's a tough call for me.Oops! Got the gestapo on my back now! !-)
I just think, that when it comes to it, Simeone can do a job on pretty much any team. Their strength has always been their defence, maybe worth a small punt. They have been one of my luckier teams this season & I feel they will only let one in here at the most. They will want to go back to Madrid with at least a draw.
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I know it's the wrong thread, but I do fancy Leverkusen V Athletico to be low on goals tonight. Just had a look at the stats between the two, and it has draw/U2.5 written all over it.
Will anyone else be touching it?
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On 17/02/2017, 15:53:22, StevieDay1983 said:
BTTS is a tough one for our game. Rotherham had gone four games without scoring before hitting three in their last two matches. Rotherham have only scored 10 in 16 away games this season but our defence is far from water tight and we've conceded 19 goals in 16 home games. I would be amazed if we didn't score so I think you're only needing to consider if Rotherham can hit the net. I would probably be more inclined to bet that we'll win with a clean sheet but maybe I'm being naive.
I don't know why my reply has iincluded the above text, but on the subject of acccas, I often waste £2 on the lotto at odds of 14m/1. Therefore an Accra returning 100/1 or so is a far more sensible option. Alright, the prize fund is different, but which one has the better chance of any return?
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Don't think there is much for me in there. I will wait for the weekend.
only Derby perhaps?
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BARNSLEY V BRIGHTON
Barnsley have midfielder Alex Mowatt available for the visit of Brighton after a three-match suspension.
Defender Aidy White remains sidelined with a pelvic injury.
Victory at Oakwell will take Brighton to the top of the Championship table in Chris Hughton's 100th league game in charge of the Seagulls.
Left-back Gaetan Bong (knee) will be assessed, Liam Rosenior (ankle) is still recovering from long-term injury and Connor Goldson (heart) is out.
When asked about his 100th league match in charge, Brighton manager Chris Hughton told BBC Sussex:
"That's news to me. Let's hope come Saturday evening that it's good news.
"I've thoroughly enjoyed the period of time that I've been here right from day one and we've been building towards something.
"Yes, it's a very nice milestone as it's a wonderful place to have it. But the win on Saturday would be a better milestone."
On the test Barnsley will present:"When we played Barnsley earlier in the season we were aware and impressed by how good a side they are.
"They're still going well on the back of a very good win at Villa in the week, so credit to the players and all the management for achieving that."
MATCH FACTS
-Barnsley have failed to score in their last two league games against Brighton (D1 L1).
-Brighton won the reverse of this fixture 2-0 in September - they have not done a league double over Barnsley since the 1991-92 campaign.
- Barnsley have scored a league-high 15 headed goals in the Championship this season.
-Brighton have conceded a league-high proportion of their goals from opposition headers (35%).
- Hemed has scored in each of his last five league appearances for Brighton (six goals) - this despite attempting just seven shots on target during this run.
-Brighton boss Chris Hughton oversees his 100th league game in charge of the Seagulls - his record from his first 99 Championship games reads; won 49, drew 31 and lost 19.
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20 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
BTTS is a tough one for our game. Rotherham had gone four games without scoring before hitting three in their last two matches. Rotherham have only scored 10 in 16 away games this season but our defence is far from water tight and we've conceded 19 goals in 16 home games. I would be amazed if we didn't score so I think you're only needing to consider if Rotherham can hit the net. I would probably be more inclined to bet that we'll win with a clean sheet but maybe I'm being naive
Thanks Stevie, well said, but I will follow my gut!! (Maybe best not to this week, hahah)
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BARNSLEY V BRIGHTON
-Barnsley have failed to score in their last two league games against Brighton (D1 L1).
-Brighton won the reverse of this fixture 2-0 in September - they have not done a league double over Barnsley since the 1991-92 campaign.
-Barnsley have scored a league-high 15 headed goals in the Championship this season.
-Brighton have conceded a league-high proportion of their goals from opposition headers (35%).
- Hemed has scored in each of his last five league appearances for Brighton (six goals) - this despite attempting just seven shots on target during this run.-Brighton boss Chris Hughton oversees his 100th league game in charge of the Seagulls - his record from his first 99 Championship games reads; won 49, drew 31 and lost 19.
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I have dragged myself off my sickbed to post! Actually it's bliss being off work and having time to study the fixtures in more depth!
After an early scan & some research, here are my thoughts.
FA CUP 5th RND
Huddersfield v Citeh
This game screams goals to me. I have been very impressed with the home side, especially the way they thumped Brighton, and now are chasing the automatic promotion spots. Wagner has added a raft of German talent recently, and this will only mean more pace & power. I can 't believe that either team will field really weak sides, although City obviously have their CL games coming up. It's Germany V Spain for me, & I fancy BTTS & O2.5 GOALS - 2.1 B365
BORO V OXFORD
Here is a potential Champioship fixture for next season?
Whilst it's a game Boro won't want to lose, their focus will be on safety this season. Oxford on the other hand are flying both in the league & are one game away from Wembley in the EFL Cup. I can't see Oxford getting thrashed here, so will be backing them on the AH
OXFORD +1 AH 2.3
LIONS V FOXES
Lord Attenborough once said to me "Look, Tiffy old bean, if you put a fox in a cage against a lion, the lion wins every time"!
And of course he is right. Leicester have bigger fish to fry at the moment. They area battling relegation, and have a tough game coming up in the CL next week. Whilst on paper they should win, the game won't be played an paper, it will be played at the Lions Den, one of the most intimidating grounds in the country. Neil Harris will field a strong team, as he doesn't have a big squad, and I am sure that he will have them pumped up, at home, to knock the champions out of the cup. It will be history making for them, and a feather in his cap. Don't forget, Milwall are a pretty decent cup side who have caused a few upsets in the past. The only problem will be, do MILWALL have the quality to break them down?
MILWALL AH +0.5 - 1.77
I also like the look of
CARDIFF V ROTHERHAM & BTTS @StevieDay1983
BARROW V TORQUAY
HALIFAX & BILLERICAY DBL @addpea
Any comments welcome
Good luck one & all!
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On 12/02/2017, 19:35:28, StevieDay1983 said:
@sajtion, @Tiffy, @allyhibs, @allthethings, @Icongene, @Neubs, @DW_United, @Kenton Schweppes, @MuineBheag, @Tanktop, @KikoCy, @dogmeister, @chris666, @gogetta, and @skyblues88, a quick turnaround of fixtures this week with a full Football League schedule and a cheeky SPL game in there.
What are the bets sticking out for you guys this week?
I've been ill since Friday. Had all my selections done & was going to post on Sat, but my guts emptied faster than my B365 account does on a match day! I am now just catching up with what's gone on over the weekend! Will be reading, but probably not posting till later in the week,
How you all did this week
in Championship Predictions
Posted
Thanks @andrewcalo @Pep004 @Mindfulness, I had a feeling that's what it was
Do any of you know any decent sites for CORNER stats?