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dinero

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Everything posted by dinero

  1. No thread for matchday 4 so I'll add my picks to this one. Real Sociedad - Valencia Sociedad has had a rather slow start to the season, but they are slowly getting into the groove and took their first win of the season couple of days ago against newly-promoted Elche side (3-0). Yes, Elche is rather a second division team and will very likely go back to Segunda after this season, but this bet is more against Valencia than it is for Sociedad. Valencia had a nice start to the season couple of weeks ago against Levante, but they are in shambles and this is more clear with every match. In
  2. +2.3 units so can't complain (leans are just informative suggestions and I don't play those) Betis - Real Madrid: went quite south with the pick, but at least it was an entertaining match.
  3. I'm not a skillful writer/storyteller, so will keep it short and simple. In my mind those matches are way more analyzed, but here we go: Valencia - Huesca Los Che is a team to watch this season if you want to see a entertaining football match - their defense is very weak and midfield makes childish mistakes/gives the ball away cheaply also (Esquerdo is especially weak imo) so overall it's very easy to score goals against them at the moment. Levante scored 2 and should have scored more (suffered a defeat only because of their own naive game plan) and Celta won only 2-1 although they sho
  4. Eibar - Sevilla My pick: Eibar under 1 @ 2.01 (Pinnacle) Sevilla is not the sharpest when attacking (missing presence in the box is their main problem), but their defense is very solid and I like the look of this bet. If Eibar scores, which is totally possible of course, we get the money back but I highly doubt Sevilla will concede twice in that game. Yes, they are probably a bit tired as they traveled a long way last week and played against Real Madrid straight after, but this will probably result in a dull game, not in conceded goals. And dull games usually mean not many goals so I find 2,01
  5. No thread for the midweek fixtures so I'll drop my picks here in the old thread. Valladolid - Granada Valladolid has problems with creating proper scoring chances let alone finding the net while Granada is having a dream start to the season. While Barca was utter crap in the weekend, Granada still deserves a lot of credit beating the Catalans. Of course, one could not get too carried away about the short term success of a newly-promoted small team, but I do think Granada will be getting something out of today's match and value is definitely on their side in my opinion. Having seen both side
  6. Totally agree about Zidane. I'm not convinced that Sevilla will win either, but odds @ 2,6 are pure value for me as I see the probability of Sevilla winning being bigger than 38% Anyway, good luck to everybody and hopefully we'll see a entertaining match.
  7. Villarreal - Valladolid 21.09 Villarreal seems pretty good this season offensive wise, especially Moreno, who is on fire. Their defense is pretty poor though so I think they will concede at least one goal, but will go on to win in the end. Villarreal to win has a bit too low odds imo, but over 2,5 at 1,87 seems better. Pick: Over 2,5 @ 1,87 (SBO) Sevilla - Real Madrid 22.09 Considering how unstable Real Madrid is, without a real game plan and not the best team spirit at the moment (Perez threatened even after the PSG loss that Zidane may get fired soon), I think value is on Sevilla si
  8. From today games I'm leaning towards Eibar and 1,5 AH and Valencia win, also pretty much agree with Stevie, but "officially" will go only with Valencia win @ 1,94 (Pinnacle). I really like this Valencia team, they are organized, disciplined, good defensively and offensively. Against Real Madrid they created a lot of good chances while not allowing Real to have too much say in the attack and I can't see them losing any points here. That is not to say it's going to be easy - definitely not, but I think Valencia will grind a win here to make yet another claim for the 4th place in the table.
  9. Huesca - Celta Vigo Huge game for both sides. HUGE. Celta fought back from 2-0 down against Villarreal what was a show of bad defending overall. But it was still an amazing emotional show as Aspas made his comeback after missing 3 months and proved how important he is to Celta. What a legend and Celta icon. He truly has Celta de Vigo in his heart, you could see that after the game where he basically cried for a whole hour. Probably from the physical pain + joy + the pressure that was on his shoulders etc. Having Aspas back is the only hope for Celta to stay in the top division this sea
  10. I'm not too good with long analyzes as Stevie here but will add my 2 cents: Sevilla - Valencia Very important match and the game of the round for me. Both teams are aiming for the Champions League place for next season and only 3 points difference between these two. Valencia should have made their life easier last round as they were clearly a superior team against Getafe, but they held on and got the draw from Valencia. Sevilla, on the other hand, got a bit lucky against Espanyol with a narrow 1-0 win - it was even-steven until they scored and after that most of the game was played
  11. Girona - Bilbao In a hurry, but I think there is value in a draw here today. Both teams had good wins last round and will be trying to keep the momentum going. Home stadium is no edge for Girona usually since they are very poor at home and Bilbao can definately take a point here. Pick: Draw @ 2,98 (Pinnacle) I was actually thinking about goals as well since odds for Over 2,5 are around 2,7 or so and I do see it representing value IMO, but you never know with these 2 teams, especially since I think Bilbao defense has improved so will leave it as just a lean.
  12. Malta - Spain Spain has been playing well under Luis Enrique, although they finishing needs polishing, I do feel the Spaniards are in for a walk in the park as Malta is just so many classes below and Spain with their technical and creative players can show the home team football ABC even when they have an off day. And I think after a narrow win over Norway, Spain wants to get some samba football going and really enjoy the game. Weather is perfect for playing football and scoring some nice goals. Pretty sure the visitors will unlock Malta defence early on and cruise to a comfortable halfti
  13. Eintracht Frankfurt - Inter It very rarely happens that Frankfurt does not score at home, in fact this season it has not happened in Europe yet. They have scored several goals most of the games and I expect the same to continue here today. They also very rarely keep clean sheet, though. Germans are in good form. Inter on the other hand are not in a good shape. They lack confidence, have problems inside the squad (Icardi!) and Spalletti not doing very good work overall. Every once in a while a different Inter shows up and in that case they would be able to put up a good fight, but in an
  14. PSG - Man United Manchester United was clearly second best team 2 weeks ago at Old Trafford and I think it will be the same today. But Ole Gunnar seems to be really the kind of guy who will not give up and is not afraid to at least go out and try so I expect ManU to exit CL with style. After all, 1st leg game was very impotent from them so I think they will want at least show to Europe that they have more fire-power than they showed at home. That being said, PSG is currently just better as a team and individually as well. Visitors have a lot of injured players out of the game as well
  15. Anybody knows whats up with Brescia - Crotone? League leaders at home vs relegation zone team @ 1,9 does not make sense unless there are some big missings from home team...?
  16. Real Madrid - Levante Under 3,5 goals @ 2,25 (Pinnacle) If the "right" Real will show up tomorrow then this bet will probably sink, but considering current situation that Real has been woeful in front of goal and not scoring in over 400 minutes, then under 3,5 @ 2+ odds is value for me. Doesn't really matter at the moment who is the opponent, it's just a bet against Real Madrid attacking problems. Villarreal - Atletico Madrid Pick: Atletico Madrid @ 2,25 (Coolbet) Villarreal has been very week this season with 8 points from 8 games and before the international break, Espanyol de
  17. Watching the match and no sign of Anett beeing sick or tired ;D Seems to be easy win
  18. Hey, CzechPunter Just some local information for this match. I'm no tennis expert by any means, but I'm Estonian as Kontaveit and read her interview after the first round win against that young Russian prospect and Anett said that she is feeling a bit sick, is tired and haven't been able to train properly, so not sure if this bet has value on current situation... In any way - good luck with the bet if you have already placed it and let's hope for Anetts win ;=)
  19. Estonia - Finland 12.10.2018 at 21:45 Pretty good value on Finland here on Friday tomorrow IMO. Estonia is without their captain and best defender Ragnar Klavan, also missing Karol Mets (who is an important part of defensive duties) and Mattias Käit (who is young, but one of the best offensive players for Estonia). Estonian main creative force is Vassiliev, who has been playing for Polish 6th league for a while now due to some problems with his home club Piast Gliwice. Last round of the national team games he was still the best player for Estonia (which shows his class but also the level
  20. I agree with you, Stevie. Add the fact that Parma main goal threat Gervinho is missing this one out + the second stiker Inglese is doubtful, I can't see Parma causing too much trouble for Genoa. Genoa, on the other hand, has been playing pretty well and your call on Piatek to score is spot on. Genoa will be my only pre-game bet on Serie A this weekend, so nothing to add really.
  21. Pretty sure the point of this forum is to give betting tips before the game, not to brag with them after.
  22. Sorry, had wrong dates in the latest 3 games. Only Derby-Norwich (1-1 draw) was played, others in the weekend. I have attached all the weekend games. Way too many to be honest as said in the last post, I will narrow it down after the weekend probably.
  23. Most games from my first post have been played and we are off to a positive start. A lot of games on the weekend (around 60) and few even before. I realize that this is a bit too wide range of games, but I'll try to analyze the results over time when more matchdays have passed and depending on the results, will narrow it down (the games are chosen based on the rating of each game). Starting bank: 250,0 € Current bank :263,9 € Amount bet: 40,0 € Profit: 13,9 €
  24. Hi, PL people I'm a long term lurker, but only recently opened an account and decided to share some thoughts and bets as well. So here I have a fairly simple draw system that I came up with and will put up all the bets here as well. It's only paper trail, no actual bets. Creating this thread to be a bit more disciplined and keep better track of the bets. Starting bank is 250 EUR and each bet is fixed on 2% (5 eur). All odds from Pinnacle. So here are the picks for first round:
  25. Sassulo - Empoli bet: Sassulo @ 2,16 (Unibet) Sassulo had a good game against Juve, but accepted their first defeat of the season. At home they have been untouchable in 3 games and I expect that to continue against weak and unstable Empoli side who will have a very hard time playing this game away from home.
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