The AFL forum has gone very quiet over the last few weeks. So lets get it going again. Friday & Sat matches below, will do Sunday's tomorrow.
Adelaide vs Geelong Over 199.5 @ 1.90 - 1 Stake
So far this season the Adelaide Crows have had a low points for of 97 (twice) on both occasions they have gone on to lose the match. Geelong have similarly exceeded 100 points in 5/7 games this year. They are ranked number 1 & 2 for points for this year. The style of the two teams lends itself to high scoring football, the Crows play a slingshot off the half back flank getting in behind the oppositions defence, Geelong on the other hand are a strong team who get the ball into the 50 more than any other team. This fixture in the last 2 years have had 200 and 199 points scored, however with the change to the rules this year allowing for more space, less congestion and ball ups I feel this also lends itself to higher scores. Overall belief is this should be a over/under line closer to the 215 mark.
Essendon vs North Melbourne - AVOID
There are some soft rumours flying around that North Melbourne are looking at resting Goldstein for this match. While I don't really believe them I do not see the value in this match. North Melbourne have found ways to win when slightly off their game aswell as blow teams out of the water. It is difficult to know which one will show up.
Hawthorn vs Fremantle - AVOID
While I do like some the value on Hawthorn at the line and under markets. The forecast is for possible showers afternoon to evening. Tasmania is known for difficult conditions, Wet and Windy. Pretty much taking anything here will be betting on what the wether will do.
GWS vs Gold Coast - No Value
Gws should win this match very easily with Gold Coast losing a further 2 players to injury this week. The difficulty here is knowing how much GWS can win by. The line is sitting at 58.5 points which is likely very close to the expected even money value.
Brisbane vs Collingwood Under 192.5 @ 1.90 - 2 Stakes
Everything in this match points to this as the best bet of the round. Combined this year Brisbane and Collingwood have individually exceeded 90 points 4 times. With 1 of those against Essendon. This fixture has not exceeded 190 points in the last 5 years, the highest 186 back in 2011. At this ground the highest total has been 175 points in 2012. I will be very surprised if this match exceeds 192.5 points. Im expecting a result around the 180-185 point mark.
Richmond vs Sydney - Sydney Win @ 1.24 - 2 Stakes
Richmond are in big trouble at the moment, playing unattractive, non effective football. Sydney on the other hand are a well drilled and extremely strong side. Richmond missing Cotchin is a big out for me as the Sydney midfield is deep and strong without their captain they have lacked leadership in the middle. The return of Rance will likely help in keeing Franklin quiet, but Sydney should have too many threat and quality players. Expecting a 30+ point win.