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** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
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world

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  1. Like
    world reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    Can't argue with Sir Puntalot!
    Anyway, as requested by @world, here are the Swedish Allsvenskan for the next round of matches (tomorrow and Thursday).
    Taking into account the previous comment about betting strategy, there's only three games that represent any double chance value (based on Bet365 odds at least). They are highlighted in the image.
    EDIT: I will start posting real "bets" over the next week or so, so we can gauge how successful this could be.

  2. Like
    world reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    Hi @world, thanks so much for the kind comment! I'd probably take those kind of hit frequencies every week, as long as I got value, of course. 
    To answer your question about the rating column, and I'll try be as brief as possible here: each team started on the same amount of points, and with each game played, depending on the result, their points are updated. I then calculate the average points overall and the average from the last 5 home and away games. From there it's a simple formula to get the values in that column. A value of 0 suggests a close game, whereas a large minus number could be a stronger away win, and vice versa. The 1X2 percentages are calculated from the total points of each team, cross-calculated with their actual results.
    I will definitely post more games, and also looking to add England League One and Two soon!
    As for Sweden Allsvenskan, Malmö had a terrible game on Saturday! EDIT: In fact, technically it was the biggest shock for the entire season, if we're going by ratings.
  3. Like
    world reacted to Sir Puntalot in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    That's just it, there is no maximum, so it needs some thought. 

    I'll have a think, but we're in the middle of a complete redesign (ratings look superb in the new style) too, so I might be a while. 
  4. Like
    world reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    Hello again, @world and everyone else!
    Here is the EPL and Championship games, now that I'm finished updating the stats. Remember that the rating between leagues are not on the same scale (each competition is a different "tournament" if I keep my poker analogy going!). I have omitted the Swedish Allsvenskan since I guess I'm the only one interested in that, but if people want it, then no problem.
    EPL ratings, are probably close, but ideally I'd want teams to have played 10 games before suggesting bets, so take them with a pinch of salt.
    It's interesting that there are some home teams are favourites, but the game suggests a (slightly) stronger away team - for example, the West Ham vs. Sunderland game.
    I'm always open for discussions!

  5. Like
    world reacted to LegendMon in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    Hi @world, I absolutely can post them here for you to see. Like I said earlier, these are still kind of work in progress and each "rating" is league-specific at the moment. You will still see the percentages the system throws out for 1X2 and double chance, though. I aim to post them on Friday at some stage. Hope that helps!
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  7. Like
    world reacted to Sir Puntalot in ELO & Form Ratings System / New Approach   
    I wouldn't worry about it, just post away, easier to keep a record.  
    As for ratings methodology - keep it simple and logical, that's it. Mine hasn't changed in 12 years.
  8. Like
    world got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in League 1 & League 2 > Oct 11th - 15th   
    What a beautiful tip and ratings! Thank you, Paul.
  9. Like
    world reacted to Sir Puntalot in League 1 & League 2 > Oct 11th - 15th   
    The ratings have Morecambe almost a goal superior and at the prices, they have to be backed. However, even the double chance is odds against so I'll have some of that.  
    Morecambe Double Chance (win/draw) @ 2.25 BetVictor
  10. Like
    world reacted to Sir Puntalot in League 1 & League 2 > Oct 11th - 15th   
    Morecambe win 2-1  
  11. Like
    world got a reaction from Crystal Gecko in Premier league week 38   
    PL attack ratings are already there, what do you think based on that?
  12. Like
    world reacted to Crystal Gecko in Premier League > April 16th through the 22nd   
    As my first post,let me start by praising Punters Lounge prediction and performance ratings for their high accuracy. For instance, the Newcastle vs. Man City the draw was accurately predicted. The most dramatic was yesterday's Serie A game between Genoa and Inter Milan: Genoa had a +31.5 prediction rating and caused the biggest upset beating Inter 1:0!! 
    Guys,I don't know what algorithm you use to do the ratings but it is pretty good. I love it. Keep up! Let's see how it performs this weekend. Thank you
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