world

Great to see a hive of activity in this thread. As the other European league draw to a close I think interest in leagues such as Eliteserien will spike so good to have some experienced heads in here early doors. 

19:00 Aalesund - Vålerenga
This game will be played at Color line Stadion in artificial grass while guests use natural. 
Aalesund is in 8th place with 11 points.  Not a good start of seaaon but game after game plays a good football with positive results.  Draw against Rosenborg away 0-0, and make three wins last one was away over Molde 0-1. In cup also eliminate Herd. .At home won two of three games over Lillestrøm and Tromso.  
Vålerenga in the other side draw last game against  Stabaek with a late goal in 89 min.  They are in 13th place with 7 points.  In last four away matches  lost all four and conceded 12 goals.  Only in cup won 0-8 over Gran.  
Last mutual matches end 0-1 in Aalesund side.  
I see more value on home side and all facts are in their favour, Vålerenga hasn't win at Color line Stadion since 2015.
Pick: Home win 2.35 @5Dimes 6/10 Good luck
 

Yeah, busy time coming in Eliteserien, after this week's Fri/Sat matches next round is already on Tuesday next week (just the day before Independence day!) After that, again a couple of days later, a normal league round and on 24.5 continues the cup. This will be followed again by the normal round 28-29.5. So lot of matches during two weeks and expect rotation. But I'd like to mention that every club in Norway takes cup matches seriously. Following ideas for this round:
Aalesund- Vålerenga: Aalesund DNB
Stabæk- Rosenborg: Stabæk +0.75
Kristiansund- Lillestrøm: Kristiansund DNB
Also with small stakes: Sogndal- Viking U2.25

hmm...well so far, still waiting for RBK-Brann:
Strömsgodset    1 - 1    Sarpsborg
Tromsø    1 - 1    Kristiansund            
Viking    0 - 2    Sandefjord              
Vålerenga    1 - 1    Stabaek       
RBK  2 - 1 Brann
okay one bet lost, RBK scored at 90+2'  
 

My point of view on Champions league - Juventus vs Monaco
    Let's start with some facts:   Juventus: - this is second semi final of Juventus in last 3 seasons! - Juventus was knocked out only once in last 6 semi finals. - Juventus and Real Madrid are the only unbeaten teams in this season's CL. - Juventus conceded only two goals in this season's CL and none of them have come through open play. - Higuain has most prolific campaign of his career in Champions league, as he has scored 5 goals in this season.   Monaco: - they have reached fourth semi final of Champions league. No other French team has made the last four more than once. - Mbappe and Falcao have scored 10 of past 16 CL goals. - In the first leg, Mbappe failed to score for the first time after having started a match in the Champions league. - Monaco have never won in Italy in seven trips. They lost all except one match.   Match facts: - Juventus have kept a clean sheet in their last 6 matches in Champions league. - Juventus are undefeated in their last 13 matches in Champions league. - There have been under 2,5 goals scored in 5 of Juventus's last 6 games. - No side has ever overturned 2 goal first-leg loss in semis. - Monaco haven't won any of three away matches in CL semis.     Juventus have won the first leg with 0-2 and Monaco is in front of mission impossible. We have seen some great come backs in this season of Champions league, but is it possible to do it against the as organised team as Juventus is? In my opinion, the biggest problem of Monaco is, that they have problems with injuries on most important positions of the team. Sidibe and Mendy are key players of the team, and last Champions league match, where they were both able to participate was against Manchester City. They passed BVB, but Juventus is much stronger, especially when it comes to discipline and positioning in defence.      First match: As mentioned Juve won 0-2, but key point was in my opinion idea of Allegri. He surprised with 3-4-3 formation, with Dybala dropping deep in midfield and as Sidibe (left back this time) stayed on his position to cover man of the match for me Dani Alves, Bakayoko needed to stay with Dybala, and because of that Pjanić had an easy job in midfield. He played as maestro, but he was practically free. He was delivering passes from side to side, feeding attackers, wingers, everyone on the pitch. Monaco needed time to adapt to surprise of Allegri. Even Lemar was coming inside to cover midfield of Juventus, but in this case Alves was even more free on "his highway" on right flank. When it looked that Monaco succeeded with adapting to Italians tactic, Dani Alves made his run, and let the ball for Higuain, who took advantage of sleepy Bakayoko and scored. Monaco didn't play bad. They created some decent chances, and they could easily score, but it wasn't their best day in the box. Falcao scored from impossible positions in this season, but he didn't succeed to beat Buffon. Despite the age of Mbappe, he was most dangerous man of Monaco. He had some great moves, but his tries were stopped by amazing Gigi as well. Second goal came after another mistake of Bakayoko, who was pressed by Dani Alves in midfield, and right before the end of the action, Alves assisted Gonzalo for second goal of the match. Once again, we cannot say that Monaco played bad. Both goals came after counter attack of Juventus, but their defence was beaten few times, and if Monaco's conversion rate would be on the level as it was on previous matches, they would have scored maybe even twice. In my opinion, Jardim made mistake with Dirar on RB position. Sidibe is much more dangerous on his, right side, and Almamy Toure is highly capable of playing on LB, even though he is right full back as well. Monaco's amazing tactics were crushed because of that, and their full backs weren't as dangerous as we were used to see in previous matches. Dirar is more or less winger and he had a lot of problems with both - Mandžukić and Sandro and as Bernardo Silva was the guy in front of him, physically both Juventus players were in big advantage.     What can we expect today? For me, the biggest question is if Mendy will be prepared to play or not. That would mean that both of them (Sidibe) would be on their positions and with their pace, strength, and ability to move forward both wing backs of Juventus - Alves and Sandro will need to be much more focused on defensive assignments, while on the other hand there will be more space for individual actions of Lemar and especially Bernardo Silva. Monacao succeeded to make Higuain look terrible in start of the match, but they made to many mistakes in positioning and Argetinian took an advantage of that. And now Bakayoko. His goal against Man City brought them to quarter finals, his performances in this season were amazing till first leg against Juventus, and he will need to prove that it was just a bad day for him, because he shown all his weaknesses in this match. He was more or less responsible for both goals of Juventus and if there were clubs, willing to give 50M and more for this player,  now they are in big doubts about it. He has chance to prove his quality and as he was rested in league, I am pretty sure that he will start the match, even if right after first-leg I thought that experienced Moutinho will play in his role on second match. Juventus have everything in hands. I wouldn't be surprised if they will show up with similar lineup, but with much more defensive oriented Alex Sandro and Dani Alves, so their lineup will look more like 5-4-1, maybe even with Cuadrado in front of Dani Alves, as Columbian played great in defensive role against Barcelona. Khedira is coming back as well, so Allegri will have some options more for midfield. Of course Juventus is stronger and especially more experienced squad which knows how to take advantage of a bad moment of opponent, and that's the biggest problem for Monaco. As I said right after the draw for semis, Monaco will face the toughest opponent for them. Both teams for Madrid would be easier matchup for their style.        What to bet? As you I believe, you are already used to... I won't have any official pick on Champions league. Especially not in this stage of tournament. Odds 1,70 looks pretty solid for Juventus, but I cannot drop the feeling, that Monaco exposed them too many times in the first match, where they weren't on their level. If Jardim will have Mendy back, I am pretty sure that they will cause them even bigger problems and then, even against almighty defence of Juventus, everything can happen. If Mendy will play, I would go with Monaco to score, but odds are simply too low. Looks that bookmakers are afraid of Monaco goal as well. Pinnacle is offering @1,826 for Monaco to score more than 0,75 goals, which means that they need to score twice, that bet is completely won. Is value in opposite site? Maybe, but I wouldn't risk with that.

I post here couse dont see topic
Kongsvinger - Sandnes
Today, 09 May 2017, 19:00
Pick: Sandnes X2
Odd: 1.6
In my opinion this odd is really good. Kongsvinger is in really bad form. They play bad football. New coach was a wrong choice. 
I feel here 0:0 or 0:1 FT 
Gl

Thanks @StevieDay1983 for the encouragement, I'll post here also in future if there's any good/value tips.
 

Still, generally a good ratio. It's nice to have someone who is expressing an interest in betting on it. It will only help to garner interest in the league over the coming months. 

Difficult league to bet on as not much info found in English but I'll try based on data I've gathered. This week it's the 7th round of Eliteserien and so far 1X2 results ended with about 60%-15%-25% and I expect more X2 from now on. Some AHC and under/over bets I'll be putting on:
Stromsgodset-Sarpsborg: Sarpsborg +0.5
Vålerenga-Stabaek: Stabaek +0.75
Viking- Sandefjord: Sandefjord +0.75
Tromso-Kristiansund: U2.5
RBK-Brann U2.75
 

1:1
3:0

I am as shocked as i could possibly be,not seeing you guys lumping on Newcastle to finish 1st @ evs with bet365.As i see it,Brighton have mountain to climb if they are to beat Villa today.They failed to do so in the beginning of the season at home and today when they have already been promoted i cant see them throwing all out attack to achieve the win.THey have already put their foot off the gas and 2 loses came immediately.Today i expect them to get defeated once again or to take a point at max.Newcastle have far more easier task at home against Barnsley who are safe and sound and are just finishing the season.I expect a routine win for the home win which will be enough to see them topping the leaggue.To sum it up,i think Newcastle winning today is a given while Brighton don't care anymore and have lost against far worse oppositions in the last couple of rounds so there is no sign of them raising for the occasion.

Thanks, @Sir Puntalot. Yes, it's constant error but I can view all contents. It's just annoying to see that error every time.

You're welcome and they are automatically updated every day.  

Norwich have sacked manager Alex Neil, with Alan Irvine taking charge of Saturday's game against Blackburn.
So, new manager's first home match

BARNSLEY V BRIGHTON
Barnsley have midfielder Alex Mowatt available for the visit of Brighton after a three-match suspension.
Defender Aidy White remains sidelined with a pelvic injury.
Victory at Oakwell will take Brighton to the top of the Championship table in Chris Hughton's 100th league game in charge of the Seagulls.
Left-back Gaetan Bong (knee) will be assessed, Liam Rosenior (ankle) is still recovering from long-term injury and Connor Goldson (heart) is out.
When asked about his 100th league match in charge, Brighton manager Chris Hughton told BBC Sussex:
"That's news to me. Let's hope come Saturday evening that it's good news.
"I've thoroughly enjoyed the period of time that I've been here right from day one and we've been building towards something.
"Yes, it's a very nice milestone as it's a wonderful place to have it. But the win on Saturday would be a better milestone."
On the test Barnsley will present:"When we played Barnsley earlier in the season we were aware and impressed by how good a side they are.
"They're still going well on the back of a very good win at Villa in the week, so credit to the players and all the management for achieving that."
MATCH FACTS

-Barnsley have failed to score in their last two league games against Brighton (D1 L1).
-Brighton won the reverse of this fixture 2-0 in September - they have not done a league double over Barnsley since the 1991-92 campaign.
- Barnsley have scored a league-high 15 headed goals in the Championship this season.
-Brighton have conceded a league-high proportion of their goals from opposition headers (35%).
- Hemed has scored in each of his last five league appearances for Brighton (six goals) - this despite attempting just seven shots on target during this run.
-Brighton boss Chris Hughton oversees his 100th league game in charge of the Seagulls - his record from his first 99 Championship games reads; won 49, drew 31 and lost 19.
 

Just a word of caution on Norwich today. We have lots of injuries at the moment and it seems that every match we play, we pick up 2/3 injuries to key players.
Naismith has been injured for a few weeks now, but was coming into form lovely just prior to his injury.
Crucially, Nelson Oliveira and Ivo Pinto both picked up bad injuries against Forest, with Oliveira sidelined for 4-6 weeks and Pinto a couple of weeks away.
So that leads us with 1 striker, in Cameron Jerome. Alex Neil confirmed yesterday that Jerome was throwing up at HT in the game midweek v Newcastle, so we are almost getting down to our bare bones.
Like I said, just a word of caution as we have a lengthy injury list with a few other important players as well them at I haven't mentioned.
But good luck all.

Forgot to mention. Norwich fans have a kind of "hoodoo" thing going on this season. Whenever Pinto doesn't play, we don't win. Think we have failed to do so at all this season.

That's one way to look at it.On the other hand we have the only team who hasn't been beaten at home They are getting points and climbing up the table after the tough start to the campaign.They will welcome Leeds who are on a good run of form but have lost half of their outings so far.As i see it,both teams could cancel each other out,without taking too much risks.I think odds are set rightly and if anything i would make Villa firm favourites here.Anyway,they are not trustworthy at the minute to win and whilst i don't think they will lose, my money goes to Draw with bet365

Looking good @Sir Puntalot
No issues to report

There will be a key above later today, but green arrows down means odds are decreasing- money coming in and as money goes is associated with green it made sense. Many sites do it the other way around, but red to me means "danger" - no money for that team, so red arrow going up is odds drifting. Same on live scores ;-)
thanks for the nice feedback, but we're only getting started.  

@Sir Puntalot-Newly designed PL-site looks much nicer. Btw, in the ELO ratings section what are those green/red triangles (up/down) mean next to 1X2 odds?

Yet another losing game round; albeit quite small. Next post will be the games for this weekend, which I won't be able to update until the New Year.
Total Staked: 623,56
Total Returned: 598,18
Profit/Loss: -25,38
New Balance: 974,62
ROI: -2,54%
Yield: -4,07%
 

Great call @Simeon Borisof! 
In my eyes, Real Madrid is too big favourite against BVB. They are one of the luckiest teams in last month, scoring goals in last seconds, not conceding from penalties, etc. but I think that BVB can cause them big problems. I don't see the reason for that low odds for Porto neither. It's true that Leicester will rotate and Porto needs a win, but 1,30? We all saw Bešiktaš yesterday... Interesting odds also on Legia. Do anyone knows how important is for Portuguese side to qualify in Europa league?