nOXX
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Posts posted by nOXX
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Manchester City vs Leicester: BTS for 1.67 in WH/Bet365.
Both teams are quite good in the attack, why not? I bought this bet for 1.8, now odds are dropping down...
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My bets on today: last two bets just to cover possible losses if Argentina won't win after 90 minutes. [TABLE=class: topmenu innertable, border: 0, cellpadding: 2, cellspacing: 0] [TR=bgcolor: transparent] [TD]
Copa America[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Over 2.25 (Over Under-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]1.89[/TD]
[TD=align: right]5/10[/TD]
[TD]SBOBET[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Other[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Sergio Leonel Agüero (Anytime Goalscorer-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]2.63[/TD]
[TD=align: right]2/10[/TD]
[TD]Bet365[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Other[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Lionel Andres Messi (Last Goalscorer-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD=align: right]1/10[/TD]
[TD]Ladbrokes[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Copa America[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Away -0.25 (Match)[/TD]
[TD]2.02[/TD]
[TD=align: right]10/10[/TD]
[TD]PINNACLE[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Copa America[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Argentina -1.25 (Asian Handicap-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]4.1[/TD]
[TD=align: right]1/10[/TD]
[TD]Bet365[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Copa America[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Argentina Over 1.5 (Team Score Over Under-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]2.5[/TD]
[TD=align: right]1/10[/TD]
[TD]Coral[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Copa America[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Away & Over 2.5 (Matchbet And Totals-Full Time Excluding Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]3.75[/TD]
[TD=align: right]1/10[/TD]
[TD]Bet365[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Copa America[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Argentina In Extra Time (Method Of Victory-Full Time Including Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD=align: right]1/10[/TD]
[TD]Ladbrokes[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR=bgcolor: transparent]
[TD]Copa America[/TD]
[TD]07/04 23:00[/TD]
[TD]Chile - Argentina[/TD]
[TD]Argentina On Penalties (Method Of Victory-Full Time Including Overtime)[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD=align: right]1/10[/TD]
[TD]Ladbrokes[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
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Hi everyone! In Russia says Yarmolenko will score today for Ukraine. Odds = 2 in Bet365 but about 1.4 in Marathon (I can't understand how could it be). It seems to me there will be easy game for Ukraine because Luxemburg isn't good away. I don't know much about this game but want to share this info.
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Re: Copa Del Rey Final - Athletic Bilbao v FC Barcelona > Saturday May 30th Are you kidding??? Barca in the best form and will win this Cup, please be sure. Of cause it is valuable to play +4.5 handicup on Bilbao for odd=2 but there are not such high odds :). Messi and Co will tear Bilbao, Neymar will score today - my forecast (odd was 1.9 yesterday as far as I remember). But maybe Barca will score 2-3 goals and conceed one, so +2.5 handicup can be played but I offer don't play any handicups on Bilbao today. I don't think Barca will play in the economic football because of the CL final against Juventus. Of cause sometimes bad things happened but not today. Good luck anyway! Tonight is holiday - 3 finals!!!:nana
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 there is politics I was talking about??? -))). I am surprises because it is unbelievable to have such high points for my country (Russia).... Let's wait final results!
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Now I think Russia, Italy and Sweden will be in TOP4-5. Odds are low but it is enough for the accumulators (if someone uses them). 1.15-1.25... But that's all I can forecast on the final, my head can't understand this contest more. Really think Italy will be the winners.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 he-he, funnny results... I can't understand people choices. Again all bookeys favorites won. Maybe I can't understand current situation in music, really don't understand why countries like Lithunia, Poland, Israel and Montenegro won. The songs are rubbish... But again just one little "surprise" - Montenegro instead of Iceland (but I can't understand why...) All rest stake from this event on Barcelona :). There was funny contest. Logic isn't working here (last years I had good results, this - bad.). Maybe is it better to take all first TOP10 favorites in the final and bet on them to be in TOP10? :)
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 odds on Czech is shortenning, I hope it is good sigh.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015
Dear gazzyg, I don't want to argue with you. I am not professional bettor, Eurovision contest forecasting is just hobby. My bankroll for this contest is only 200$ so even if I lost 20% I wouldn't be very upset. I lost just two bets yesterday and won one. Yeld is negative but let's wait a little - it is just the beginning. Please understand - I am just topicstarter who want to share some thoughts. Tomorrow I again will lesten In Flames or Red Fang in the car and forget about the Finland fail :) You mentioned favorites but couldn't catch main idea - I don't want to forecast winner, so I am talking about the TOP10 or something about that. Bilan, Rybak, Loreen, Teardrops were favorites But let's look at the last 10 contest winners: 2004-2005-2006-2007-2010-2011-2014 - were they favorites?????? NO. But they won. You nentioned just 4 absolute favorites but please note that Teardrops has odds just 1.67 as far as I remember. It is quite low. Rybak is almost the same, 2.1 approximately. So betting just on favorites you will be with negative yeld, be sure. But I don't want to continue arguing. There is no sense. [TABLE=class: standard] [TR] [TD]2004[/TD] [TD]Bilan favourite Ryback favourite Euphoria favourite Teardrops favourite I'm really not having a pop Nox but you don't have to go looking for opportunities that maybe aren't there when the obvious win is there in front of your face. Sometimes we accept the bookies can see this as well as us and we take the best odds and win. Many years the favouritism will be justified the aren't complete mugs ...every few years we may unearth the odd gem and they get it way wrong like 2007 20-1 Serbia's Molitva and last year 40-1 Austria. No need to make it hard for ourselves. You mentioned Austria...well done...yes some of us realised the bookies had that one wrong very early lol Here's my post from 2014 so I don't just go for the favouritesTaa Daaaaaaaa !!!! :rollin Sorry I'd notice the stuff about "too risky" but struggled to see why you would have such specific %bankroll and particular bookie and odds available only to say but I'm not actually doing that. Good luck though.
???????[/TD]
[TD]???????[/TD]
[TD]Wild Dances[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2005[/TD]
[TD]
??????[/TD]
[TD]????? ????????[/TD]
[TD]My Number One[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]
?????????[/TD]
[TD]Lordi[/TD]
[TD]Hard Rock Hallelujah[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]
??????[/TD]
[TD]????? ?????????[/TD]
[TD]Molitva[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]
??????[/TD]
[TD]???? ?????[/TD]
[TD]Believe[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]
????????[/TD]
[TD]????????? ?????[/TD]
[TD]Fairytale[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]
????????[/TD]
[TD]???? ?????-???????[/TD]
[TD]Satellite[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]
???????????[/TD]
[TD]Ell & Nikki[/TD]
[TD]Running Scared[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]
??????[/TD]
[TD]?????[/TD]
[TD]Euphoria[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]
?????[/TD]
[TD]?????? ?? ??????[/TD]
[TD]Only Teardrops[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]
???????[/TD]
[TD]??????? ?????[/TD]
[TD]Rise Like a Phoenix[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015
Thanks for the info but I absolutely can't understand what will be in Russia if Gagarina won. Please understand - many countries can boycott contest next year, you really can't understand under which presure we are. I am patriot and will glad to see Russia on the first place but it seems to me Eurovision Anniversary must win some traditional european county with tradition song like Italy. Les't watch football, Uve-Lazio already 1-1!!!I had friends in the audience last night and they reported strong support for Russia among the crowd - Serbia too but given that so many Serbs live in Vienna that might be misleading. True there are a lot of Eastern Europeans in the city also but I do believe you have to take a possible Russian win into your strategy for Saturday. -
Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015
firstly, please be more attantive - I decided to skip betting on risky Macedonia to qualify (1%) and Netherlands to qualify (2%). Estonia was qualified as I expected but I decided to skip it as well. So I can't understand your comments. secondly, logic is simple - there are must be surprises in contest. Betting just on the favorites you will receive negative yeld, be sure. But yesterday ALL favorites WON. It is quite interesting. It happens quite seldom. Danmark was outsider by the way. But you are correct: there was one little surprise - Serbia was qualified instead of Belarus but they are the same quality for me. Finland wasn't qualified, I am agree, I am lost. But this is forecasting, the odd was 2.1 in the last minute before the beginning of contest. It is like coin toss and I believe in this bet. Please look at this table - don't you see any surprises? I see - there are NOT Austria I bet on (as far as I remember the odd on Austria in TOP4-5 was quite sweet). I think everything is clear for you. [TABLE=width: 568]Really struggling to follow your logic now Nox. Demark not qualifying wasn’t a surprise? 3 of your own picks Macedonia, Netherlands & Finland to qualify not doing so wasn’t a surprise to you…if it wasn’t why were you backing them...these 3 had 9% of your bankroll on them ? From what I see you are backing... Greece to qualify (4%) Top 10 (1%) Macedonia to qualify (1%) Netherlands to qualify (2%) Finland to Qualify (5%) Top 10(1%) Malta to qualify (6%) Top 10 (3%) Ireland to qualify (6%) Top 10 (2%) Top 5 (1%) Czech to qualify (2%) Top 10 (1%) Slovenia to qualify (10%) Top 10 (2%) Sweden Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (10%) Italy Top 10 (10%) Top 5 (3%) Germany Top 10 (2%) ...but also " this year Estonia has a good chance" so that's 12 countries ! well 9 now that 3 of them have failed to progress. Spreading out your bets like that is going to really damage your chances of getting a decent win. -
Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 after 1st semifinal I am worry about my forecast: Chezh, Malta and Ireland are outsiders and lost tomorrow. I thought there was unforseen surprises but yesterday saw picture there bookey won people :). Sweden in TOP4 for 1.22 is very good odd to play now (maybe putting in in the accumulator). Russia dropped down Sweden but it is temporary event. Tomorrow everything can be changed again).
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Punks lost. Pity, good guys. Frankly speaking I can't understand results - all favorites won, no surprises...
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 after lady with beard everything can be:) Russia is the best or in TOP3 but politics will make their business. Our producers know how to make good performance on such events. Unfortunately it isn't contest - the singers lie Sia, Beuonce, Riahna and others from USA would won this contest without any troubles))) Concerning Finland - the sond is rubbish for Eurovision but the artists are special people, I really respect them. I think they will be qualified.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Aidymac please don't sorry I also just wrote my comments :). I really want you to win. Don't put money on Russia, the risk doesn't deserve it. It is better to place max bet on Barcelona win Uventus :).
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Russia won't win, please be sure. I am from Russia and understand what our "partners" think about us. It is impossible to see Russia as a host of next Eurovision. Contest is very political but not 80%. Maybe first 1-2 places are under big politics pressure but others don't feel the same on their skin. Please note that Estonia, Latvia and other our friendly contries won't vote for us. We have maybe the best song but we will be booed.... So Russia NOT win is good choice for any accumulator. Please check all previous Eurovision (2008-2013) and you will see which countries gave us their points. Than check Eurovision 2014. And keeping in mind current political situation please forecast which countries will give us maximum points? Estonia? Latvia? Lithunia? Ukraine is absent. Poland? So we haven't support from post-Soviet this year. Our current place - 5-15 and not more. But everything can happen. I will avoid any bets on Russia. By the way Marathonbet offers the best odds on qualification to the fanal. Please note it.
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Yes, Italy has great chance to win this time. But after Austria last year I won't be surprise any result :). Except last year there were absolute clear who will win: Loreen, Danmark (Teardrops), Rybak - all were favorites with odd les than 2 as I remember. Now Sweden has 2.82 and we can expect something unforseen here. I don't like to bet on winner, it is better to bet on TOP5 or TOP10, the risk is much lower. Good luck with Italy. I will cheer for Finland :)
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Re: Eurovision Song Contest 2015 Some words about Eurovision 2014: I bet on Austria in spite of I hate and can't understand singer (lady with beard). All Russia can't understand it. BUT it was something new and I decided to bet on it - like on Lordi (Finland) and Lena (Germany) some years ago. After 2014 everything can happen, one russian comic offered to send Tank as a representative from Russia :). This year Estonia has good chances because it has light song, Netherlands is also interesting. I can't understand why Australia is one of the favorites by bookeys. I don't think they can reach even TOP10. I think it is enough. Let's wait semi-finals. Please note that all odds will be changed after semi-finals (as far as I remember odd on Austria in TOP5 in semi-final last year was quite big). I offer to use Betfair - they always offer higher odd.
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Hi! Hereby I want to share my point of view about the Eurovision Song Contest 2015. But I want to start with introduction: I like football and poker but forecasting Eurovision results became like tradition for me from the late 2000es. That time I decided to watch this contest by TV and check can it be foreseen or not. My first result was bad because I was impressed by some articles and bookmakers odds and chose bad way. All next Eurovision contests were successful for me and this one won’t be exclusion, be sure. I like rock and club music and hate pop songs but it isn’t necessary to like things you bet on. The most important here is to understand what people will vote for and which song has highlight. Also we have to understand that Eurovision isn’t sport event and there is big politic dependence in the contest. We must pay greater attention to this year contest: there will be anniversary – 60th edition of the contest! Surprises must be and the first one is Australia attending… I can’t understand it, why do they need Australia to attend contest? For me its song is poor and they will be out of TOP10 but bookey think another…. Well, let’s quickly introduce my choices and only then decide which stake each country deserves. First semi-final consists of 16 countries which will contest for the 10 places in the final on 19th of May 2015.
- Greece: Maria Elena Kyriakou - "One Last Breath".
Song: very very strong. Previous contests: Greece is always in the top decile with good songs. Politics: Cyprus always gave them maximum points because of politic situation. Politics is very close here because a lot of people know about the economic situation and possible independence of Greece soon. In my opinion there will be neutral influence on the result because of half population will be angry for the Greece (they don’t like to feed them) and other half will feel pity for them because of their possible bankruptcy. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 22nd place of Greece but they always in opposite real results concerning this country. Let’s neglect this point. Conclusion: 4% of bankroll on Greece to qualify to the final for 1.3 in Paddypower (one week ago odd was 1.43 in Betfair…). Someone who likes risk can choose one more bet: 1% on Greece in TOP10 for 4.61 in Betfair. Anyway we must have profit here.
- Macedonia: Daniel Kajmakoski - «Autumn Leaves».
Song: good vocal, interesting motive. Previous contests: They rare qualify to the final but last times their song were poor. This time it is more interested and have highlight. Politics: Neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 21st place. Conclusion: after long thinking I decided to skip my risky bet: 1% of bankroll on Macedonia to qualify to the final for 1.84 in Betfair. It isn’t valuable but I had to inform you about this interesting song.
- Netherlands: Trijntje Oosterhuis - "Walk Along".
Song: light and kind Rasta man’s song. Previous contests: There rare attend the final but last times this “habit†has been changed. Politics: Neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 17th place. Conclusion: I decided to skip my risky bet: 2% of bankroll on Netherlans to qualify to the final for 2.5 in Paddypower. I see very low value here so offer to skip it.
- Finland: Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - "Aina mun pitää".
Song: punk rock song. Previous contests: they are always outsiders because of other Scandinavian countries use another strategy choosing country representatives. Only Lordi with heavy rock music won contest in 2006 (there was first time for many years they finish in TOP10…). There was big resonance that year…. Their song didn’t have Eurovision format but it was so unusual to see people with ugly masks with guitars… There will be attempt ?2. But the key is all band consists from the people with Down's syndrome. It is very important for us. I don’t think European people will neglect this fact and won’t allow them to qualify to the final. They will have never been forgiven. Politics: Neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 26th place (last possible place). Conclusion: I like this song because it is rock music. Also I see here huge value. It will be one of the surprises. My bets: 5% of bankroll on Finland to qualify to the final for 1.76 in Betfair (the odd was 2.5 last week, please hurry up) and – 1% on Finland in TOP10 for 3.18 in Betfair.
- Russia: Polina Gagarina – “Million voicesâ€.
Song: one of the best young singers in Russia with very good vocal. The song is based on the best experience of Eurovision contest attendance and MUST be in TOP5 BUT politics will cramp us. The song is call to the peace in all over the world again. Previous contests: we are always in TOP10 and often in TOP5. Politics: very bad. All world is against us and likely we will be punished for nothing. As I know last year Tolmacheva’s sisters were booed just because of politics. People mostly don’t understand that happens in the world and trust to the TV-set program which almost always lies… OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 11th place. Conclusion: it is dangerous to bet on Russia this year. We used to have partners like Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine. Just symbolic stake on Russia in TOP10 for 1.14 isn’t valuable so let’s skip my country this time. Second semi-final consists of 17 countries which will contest for the 10 places in the final on 21th of May 2015. This semi-final contains all favorites but the same quantity places for the final (10 pcs.). It must be more competitive.
- Ireland: Molly Sterling - "Playing with Numbers".
Song: this is my favorite. I like such kind of songs – rude woman’s voice, good motive. Also it has a highlight and zest. Previous contests: they haven’t had good results for a long time but they are only country which won contest for 7 times!!! But it was so long time ago… (last time they won it in 1996). Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 26th place. Conclusion: Ireland hasn’t been in final and of cause in TOP10 for a long time. Many bookmakers have opened the line: there will be next Ireland victory? I don’t think it is just without reasons. There can be 2nd surprise this contest so I offer you the next picks: 6% for qualify to the final for 2.33, 2% for TOP10 for 16.7 in Betfair (the odd was 30!!! last week). The last one: 1% for TOP5 for 26 in Betfair. I believe it can happen (it wouldn’t be surprise for me even if Ireland win). It seems to me they are well prepared to the anniversary and want to win it after such a long break.
- Malta: Amber - "Warrior".
Song: this is my second favorite. I haven’t heard such a strong song for a long time. It contains all for the victory: good vocal, melodic motive and good beat. Previous contests: they haven’t had good results for a long time in the finals. But this song must change situation. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 26th place. Conclusion: it is quite risky bet but I believe it has value. Last year Israel had very strong singer and I also bet on her but she hasn’t been even qualified to the final!!! OGAE forecasted them 3rd place but….. I think there was just politics. But here we have zero politic influence and good song. Let’s try with the following bets: 6% for qualify to the final for 1.81, 3% for TOP10 for 22 in Betfair (the odd was 30!!! last week).
- Czech Republic: Marta Jandová & Václav Noid Bárta - "Hope never dies".
Song: this is also one of my favorite. It contains all for the success: duet, good both woman and man vocal, melodic motive. Previous contests: their previous results are very bad. Their maximum result is only 9 point in one of the last 3 finals… They haven’t attended contest from 2000 because of unsatisfied results. But their previous singers had bad songs. This duet has quite a lot for the good result. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 25th place. Conclusion: it is quite risky bet but I believe in that kind of sensation. If you check their recent singers you reveal they are not good, not in Eurovision format. Bookmakers and OGAE thinks the same: first time for the last 15 years Czech Republic take part in the contest and doesn’t think about the good result. I have opposite opinion – there is anniversary, there is good duet with nice song – why do they should be out of final this time? 15 years without the final!!! So my picks here the following: 2% on qualification to the final for 2.86 in Betfair, 1% on TOP10 for 21-23 in many bookeys.
- Slovenia: Maraaya - "Here for You".
Song: very interesting song with good original performance. It looks like very kind and playful song. It is Eurovision format. It is very familiar to the Lena from Germany who won contest couple of years ago – she was just amateur but won contest! Previous contests: their previous results are very bad. They seldom attend final but this year is special one. Previous singers weren’t good enough. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 5th place. Conclusion: this is sure pick for me – Maraaya must be qualified so we have to place big bet here: 10% on qualification to the final for 1.19 in Betfair and 2% on TOP10 for 2.42 in Betfair.
- Sweden: Måns Zelmerlöw - "Heroes".
Song: favorite of the bookmakers. Excellent performance and background, dancing song with handsome man. This song has all for the Eurovision but I don’t think it will win. First of all Sweden has already won contest couple of years ago. Secondly this year there are lots of good singers to compete with. But it must be in TOP10 and in TOP5. Previous contests: their previous results are very good. Loreen won contest in 2012 and if you look at Sweden results for the last 15 years you reveal they are often in TOP10. Sweden like this contest and always send good singers for the contest in comparison with other countries like BIG5 (France, England, Germany, Italy and Spain). Politics: neutral. They are always awarded maximum point from their neighbors (Scandinavian countries). OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 2th place. It is understandable – OGAE consist from teenagers but in real contest there will be a lot of other people who will like other kind of songs like Malta and others. Conclusion: this is sure pick for me – Sweden in TOP10 – 10% for 1.15 in 10% for TOP5 in Betfair for 1.21. Unfortunately it is impossible to earn big money on favorites here – I am not sure he will win and also there isn’t big difference between TOP5 and TOP4 but everything can happen. Finalists:
- Spain: Edurne - "Amanecer".
Song: strong song. I think she can be in TOP10 or maybe in TOP5. But she sing in Spain and isn’t good (people like English song not in national language). Her vocal is good but something wrong here and I can’t understand it. Previous contests: Spain is always out of TOP10 and its song always in Spain… Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 8th place. Conclusion: it doesn’t know what to do – odd 4 for TOP10 looks good but I don’t see value here. Let’s skip it.
- Italy: Il Volo - "Grande amore".
Song: Very very strong song. For me it is opera, trio sings very confident and has very good chance to win this year. Unfortunately artists with classic vocal have never won contest but this can be an exception. Previous contests: Italians don’t think about this contest as about serious contest. Italy has boycotted this contest since 1998 to 2010 but after always finished in TOP10. This is anniversary and all country want win. So this is one of the favorites. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 1st place (OGAE often forecast 1st place for real winners). Conclusion: 10% on TOP10 for 1.26 in Betfair, 3% on TOP5 for 1.54 in Betfair. I don’t want to risk more here.
- Germany: Ann Sophie - "Black Smoke".
Song: interesting vocal, playful lady with good song and no more. Frankly speaking she finished only second after Angreas Kummert in national selection but he refused to go to the Vena… So Ann Sophie won’t have any obligations and compliance for the victory, she is only deputy J. BUT please remember EURO1992 (football contest) there Danmark won without any preparations and trainings just because they were qualified by lucky chance (I don’t think it will be interesting to see full story about it here). I think Germany can get high position here. Previous contests: Except Lena (1st place on the Eurovision 2010) the often out of TOP10. Politics: neutral. OGAE (fans club): they voted for the 18st place. Conclusion: 2% on TOP10 for 7.5 in Boleysport. I want to risk here but nobody except be believe in this result (I wanted to put 1% more on TOP5 for odd=30 but decided to skip it). There will be some extra bets and comments tonight.
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Re: Real Madrid v Atlético de Madrid > Wednesday April 22nd
because they are not favorites today). maybe something happened? we shall read news and check what's happened. Maybe all in on Atletico??? ^)))Why are Real Madrid now 2.05 on Bet365 and getting bigger by the minute?? -
Re: Real Madrid v Atlético de Madrid > Wednesday April 22nd one more bet by my side: 10 points on the 7+ cards in WilliamHill for 1.62 and 6 points on the 4-6 cards for 2.8 at the same place. It is half arbitrage but with 99% of likelihood. Why? Because I don't believe in 1-3 cards in such important game. Only this way we lose bet. Profitability is only 2.62% BUT it is valuable for me to have profit. I believe in 5-9 cards. Last time my forecast wasn't successful but it was just unlucky day. I don't think it will be replay today.
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Re: Real Madrid v Atlético de Madrid > Wednesday April 22nd
I am with you today except last pick - (away win to nill). I believe in something like 1-1 or 2-2 today. Real will play at home but without thir key players (Modrich, Bale, Benzema). BUT please remember yesterday's game when Bayern faced the same problem. Of cause Porto is not the same as Atletico but I wouldn't be surprised to see 3-0 today and Ronaldo hat-trick (why not?). Red card at the beginning of game (foul on Ronaldo and red card to the one of Atletico defender). 1-0 and Simeone will have to play open game there will be defeated. This is just one of my forecast, I believe in Atletico qualification. Good luck to everyone, couple of months ago I bet on Atletico win Champion league for odd=21 (1/10 points).Real without 4 very important players is vulnerable at the back and will struggle to control the game in midfield ! It's going to be a loooong night for Real fans ! Any way.... i found a couple of very lucrative bets: Atletico to Qualify @ 2.46 marathonbet 4/10 Atletico to win or draw and under 3,5 goals @ 2.79 marathonbet 5/10 Atletico DNB @ 3.32 marathonbet 3/10 Atletico win to NIL @ 11 marathonbet 1/10 -
Re: Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 14th 5 cards... just 5 cards... but it must be 6-7 according to the fouls commited. I am frustrated. Even russian commentator said: I don't remember such "unrude" game... Fortunately Juventus won and Atletico hasn't lost. But anyway I am frustrated) Sent from my GT-N7100 using PL Forum
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Re: Atlético de Madrid v Real Madrid > Tuesday April 14th I have found out that I am not lucky when I post my picks on forums: my stats is good (i have blog on blogabet with more than 900 picks) but each time I want to share my pick here - I place wrong pick. I adviced odd 1.37 for over 5.5 yellow card today with high confidence. But.... maybe something will be changed in 2nd half but I am not sure - I see closed game and only desire about the goal scored. Maybe after we will see rude game) Sent from my GT-N7100 using PL Forum
FA Cup > Feb 20th - 22nd
in Championship Predictions
Posted
I do believe in Shrewsbury. Really I can't understand why everybody expect easy win of MU.
MU is full of injures players, team isn't motivated, coach is a bu..shit.. On the other hand home team will be highly motivated to beat famouse rival.
1-1 is good result but I suppose there will be 2-1 (1-0 after first half).
There must be the battle.
Sbobet offer 29/1 for W1/W1 (HT/FT). I will play it today with very low stake and AH1 +0.75 for 3.10 in Unitet (medium stake). Risky but playable.