mrclubbie

Brentford @ 1.61
 
30 points

West Ham over @ 1.73
25p

Welcome to the comp, I'll add you in to Division 7. You've just missed week 1 but no penalty for that

@mrclubbie we have a new free Football Tipster comp starting this week if you fancy joining in.  All the info is in the forum here https://forum.punterslounge.com/forum/235-football-tipster-competition/

Good evening all :)

Liverpool vs Manchester City
The biggest game in the Premier League this weekend is undoubtedly the 4:30pm GMT kick-off on Sunday afternoon of reigning champions Liverpool against current league leaders Manchester City at Anfield. These two sides have essentially dominated English football for the past few seasons and we could be in the process of watching the power shift between these two sides once again. Can either side win here or is it destined to end in a draw?
Liverpool are in serious danger of letting their title defence slip away. Jurgen Klopp is constantly angry and the Reds are dropping points at will. The latest incident came in midweek when the club lost 1-0 at home to Brighton to drop to 4th in the league table. It is hoped that both Sadio Mane and Fabinho will be fit to play with Alisson also set to return to the first team. Liverpool can come into this game full of confidence though with the club unbeaten at home against Manchester City in 17 league matches. It's a worrying time for Liverpool though. After going so long without a loss at Anfield, they could now potentially lose three home league games in a row at the stadium for the first time since 1963. If they fail to score in this game then it'll be the first time in the club's history that they would have failed to score in 4 consecutive home league matches. It's now 348 minutes of football without scoring a goal at Anfield for Liverpool. It's grim reading.
Manchester City fans will no doubt see this as an opportunity to twist the knife into one of their title rivals. Pep Guardiola's men are top of the table and 3 points clear of 2nd placed Manchester United with a game in hand. The Citizens are undefeated in 20 competitive matches and have won 13 games in a row in all competitions. A win here would equal a top flight club record of 14 wins in a row set previously by Preston in 1892 and Arsenal in 1987. There is also a chance to keep a record 7th clean sheet in a row in the league. It's now 768 minutes since Ederson last conceded in the Premier League. If you think that Ruben Dias and John Stones are tapping into the spirits of Paolo Maldini and Franco Baresi then you'd be correct for feeling that way because the pair have only conceded 1 goal in the 11 league games they have started together.
Well, this could well be the game that tells us just how ready Manchester City are to regain the title they lost to Liverpool last season. There is no denying they are the most in-form team not only in the Premier League right now but European football as a whole. In contrast, Liverpool are at sixes and sevens. I don't care what history tells us. This is Manchester City's game to win and I think they could send a big message here. How poetic would it be if Raheem Sterling scored his 100th goal for City against his former employers as well?
Manchester City to Win @ 2.10 with Boylesports
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.82 with SBK

Can't wait to see Man City recording a win at Anfield since 2003 ?
Me predicting many goals for this match with Man City eager to chase for wins while Liverpool to fight back strongly after a dip of performances

Good day my friends ??
Man City has managed to delay Liverpool's title just slightly only with a 3-0 win over Arsenal.
Can Everton add some slight delay towards Liverpool's title ?
I find it difficult to predict how matches will turn out given the lengthy rest due to COVID-19, never know how teams might perform as matches restart.
Odds and statistics are in Liverpool's favour. They have not lost a match against Everton for 10 consecutive years (P21 W11 D10 L0 GF38 GA15)

Preston has to improve their away form in order to maintain their pace in top 6 and fight for a chance for promotion to top division since relegation in 1961
They have managed just 9 points out of the possible 33 points in 11 away matches this season, the lowest points earned out of first 11 teams on the league table.

Uninspiring and lacklustre performance by Man City this season. Retaining either FA Cup or Carabao Cup would be good enough imo.

Noted that nearly 30 years ago in 1990, Liverpool also recorded 8 straight wins into the season but drew their 9th match. Eventually the title went to Arsenal.

Noted that nearly 30 years ago in 1990, Liverpool also recorded 8 straight wins into the season but drew their 9th match. Eventually the title went to Arsenal.

Why hello, good sir. Enjoy your summer? Ready to get back involved with some outrageous betting? 

Good evening my friends ?

No! 

Burnley vs Cardiff
Finally, we reach the crucial period of the Premier League season when my Cardiff side face a number of do-or-die matches. The first up is this Saturday at 3pm when we travel to Turf Moor to face fellow relegation rivals Burnley. Anything but a win could realistically all but end our hopes of survival.
Burnley were looking in trouble a couple of weeks ago but back-to-back wins in the league have helped to steer the club away from the drop zone. Sean Dyche's team are now in 14th place and 8 points clear of the drop. It seems unlikely they'll go down now but one more win would make things a lot more comfortable. Particularly if that win came against this Cardiff side.
Cardiff are doing their best to keep their heads above water. The Bluebirds are in 18th place and 5 points from safety with just 6 league games remaining. This game is one of those six that they'll feel they can win but it will be tough. Neil Warnock's side are not short on self belief after two strong displays against Chelsea and Manchester City. They know even 4 points from their next two league matches against Burnley and Brighton could change everything.
Three of the last four league meetings between these two sides have ended in draws. It was back in April 2013 when Cardiff went to Turf Moor and grabbed a draw that delivered the Championship title for them that season. Six years later and Cardiff will be hoping to come away from that ground with a positive result.
The bad news for Cardiff fans is that hope is fading. Our team have only won 2 and drawn 2 of their 15 away league games this season. They come to a Burnley side that are starting to get their results back on track. Personally, I feel the best we can hope for here is a draw. I have said it before and I'll say it again though. Don't write this Cardiff side off just yet.
Draw @ 3.60 with Betfair
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.81 with MarathonBet
@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, @ndanmak, @cummins91, @vicsuna, @abigail, @Carovie, and @AndreBR, what bets are you guys liking the look of this week?

Nottingham vs QPR
QPR has never won at City Ground - Lost 16, draw 11.
Record may continue to hold as Nottingham continues to push to reach the top 6 for a chance for promotion

Since I had plenty of spare time, I decided to look at the past performances for each team during this festive period.
Of course, the relevance is subjective here.
Performance for the match prior to Boxing Day (orange = lose)


 

Wolves vs Liverpool
We are treated to a Friday night game in the Premier League this weekend. Mid-table Wolves entertain the league leaders Liverpool at Molineux for this 8pm kick-off. Can the Midlands team continue their revival of form or will the Reds extend their undefeated league run?
Wolves started the season well with just 1 defeat in their opening 8 league games. A slight blip in October and November without a win in 6 league games has now seemingly been put behind them. Nuno Santo's side have now won three league games on the bounce moving them up to 7th in the table and just 1 point behind Manchester United.
Liverpool are excelling this season. Jurgen Klopp's men have set the title pace and are now sitting on top of the table with a 1 point advantage over their main title rivals Manchester City. The Reds are undefeated and have won their last 6 league games in a row.
Despite the recent head-to-head between these two sides being fairly even with 3 wins for Liverpool and 2 victories for Wolves in the last 5 meetings, the travelling side are unbeaten in their last 5 visits to Molineux. Their last defeat away in the league came against Chelsea on 6th May last season.
The home side clearly hate playing on a Friday night. Wolves have lost their last 11 matches played on a Friday in the top flight. Their last top flight win on a Friday night came way back in April, 1965. That's a monkey they'll certainly want to get off their shoulder.
This is a massive opportunity for Wolves though. If they win this game then it will be four consecutive wins in the Premier League. The last time they achieved four wins in a row in the top flight was back in January, 1972. Wolves will also be the 27th team that Klopp has faced in the Premier League. He has earned at least one victory against all of the other 26 sides.
I'm backing this to be an exciting game with both teams attacking each other. Wolves showed against Manchester City that they can cause problems for the big teams. They've ridden the sticky patch and I can see this being a tough one for Liverpool. I think Klopp's side might squeeze a win out here but it won't be easy. 2-1 away win if I was pushed for a correct score.
BTTS @ 2.00 with William Hill
Anytime Scorer: Mohamed Salah @ 1.95 with Betway
@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @yossa6133, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, @thfc, @Dboston, @Dr. Florida192, @money44, @1moregoal, @ggm31v, @EuroDream, and @AndreBR, what are you guys looking to bet this weekend?

Nottingham vs QPR
QPR has never won at City Ground - Lost 16, draw 11.
Record may continue to hold as Nottingham continues to push to reach the top 6 for a chance for promotion

Wolverhampton vs Liverpool
Hmm...A top-table team extremely on form against an average mid-table team
Noted that Wolves so far only lost once to top table teams:
25/8 Wolves 1-1 Man City
22/9 Man Utd 1-1 Wolves
04/11 Wolves 2-3 Tottenham
12/11 Arsenal 1-1 Wolves
06/12 Wolves 2-1 Chelsea
 
 
Here's some other stats I checked:
Wolves have won 3 in a row in all competitions - The last time they won 4 in a row was back in Apr'18
Wolves have not win 3 consecutive home match since 2017
Wolves have not record consecutive wins in all competitions against Liverpool since 1980
Wolves lost 0-3 in their last 2 home matches against Liverpool (2011, 2012) - The last time they lost 3 consecutive matches at Molineux against Liverpool was in the 1970s (1976, 1978, 1979)

There's no added value for Palace here. Markets are giving the home side a 60.6% chance of winning and that looks in the right region to me, perhaps a little generous if anything.
ELO ratings favour Palace but I keep telling people that certain teams attacking performances do not translate into goals due to poor chance conversion. Palace's poor chance conversion to revert to the mean? THEY DON'T HAVE ANY STRIKERS!!! They've scored 2 home goals all season for a reason.
Key goal metrics give Burnley half a goal advantage for this game.
Looking at the spirit level of both teams I feel Palace are in the better moment but does that justify the price on Palace? I am skeptical.
It's a match which is highly unpredictable and awkward to analyse. If you put a gun to my head I would back Burnley +1.0 AH but really it should be a no bet scenario for most people.
If you back Palace I will cheer you on but I cannot get involved with the home side myself @ 1.65.

Trivia:
Mourinho has not lost his 1st league game of the season since the days with Porto (10W 5D)
EPL has seen 5 consecutive seasons of TG odd in the last 5 league openers
Leicester has seen 5 consecutive seasons of over 2.5 in their 1st match of the season
 
 

Yes...
His stats with West Brom (EPL games)
DLDLLDDLWDLLLLLLL - 1W 5D 11L, 12 scored and 28 conceded
His string of EPL losing streak starts from 1/10/2016 Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace
DLLLLLLWDLL - 1W 2D 8L, 18 scored and 25 scored
I worry for West Brom if they are relegated back and Pardew is still at the helm

It is ridiculous, yes. It is not like as if Everton is at the bottom of the league table. Or has Man City been overrated by degree too much based on their good form this season ?
Thanks