delfino

Qinwen Zheng (+7.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.70 with Pinnacle
Obviously I don't expect to see an upset here, but this is getting ridiculous given that this is a Grand Slam, that Zheng beat a (limited) Halep, and that Swiatek didn't have the best of days against Kovinic. Zheng can play attacking tennis and produce some neat serves, she's the new generation of Chinese players and has absolutely nothing to lose here. 

I have him taking a set against tsitsipas, but seeing how random clay matches are he'll somehow get straight setted by the greek. He 100% has the game to trouble tsitsipas , but we ll see , he s still young and unexperienced but seems to have a solid mentality

Does anyone on the ATP tour has a serve, worse than Schwartzman's? (Ymer's doesn't count)

Tsitsipas cruised against the very weak Ymer. The Swedish was absolutely useless, and i wonder why some of you picked him to beat Tsitsipas.
For me, Tsitsipas MAIN weakness is his father. I noticed ZERO progress for the last three years. Truly, Tsitsipas was BETTER in year 2019 than now.
If he doesn't get rid of his idiot father, no more progress is ahead for him. His idiot father, is the curse of Tsitsipas.

Martina Trevisan to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 2.12 with Pinnacle
Not quite sure what to make of the odds here. Sasnovich is good, of course, but Trevisan is the most in-form player (aside from Swiatek) on the tour right now and she hasn't spent that much time on the courts here for fatigue to play a role in my opinion. And do I think she's the better clay courter of the two? Most definitely. For my worth, the odds should be the other way around here.

Jessica Pegula to beat Tamara Zidansek at 1.38 with Unibet
Despite nearly choking away a 6-1 5-1 lead, Pegula was pretty awesome against Kalinina, the match was intense from start to finish, bar the first set. Zidansek looks undercooked coming into this and hasn't beaten a player of Pegula's level all year long.

Got very lucky there. Vika was a set and a break ahead and served for the match in the third. I'll take it though, especially as I'm down for the tournament so far.

I think he's just been inspired at a big tournament in a match that nobody gave him a chance in. You can swing much more freely - a bit like Kolar is doing against Tsitsipas right now. Speaking of Tsitsipas, he has very little chance of winning this tournament. His backhand is such a weakness and on top of that he'd need to overcome fatigue to get very far now. I'm not even sure he'll go as far as his ranking.

Quiet day today with only the treble and one outright in action. The treble just about came in, but it wasn't looking good when Sinner, who was the shortest leg, lost the first set and then headed towards even money at the start of the second when facing break points. Thankfully he managed to save those points and then break before serving out the set from 0-40. After that he won the third set without much fuss, before going a break behind in the forth after failing to hold from 40-15. Carballes Baena then repeated that trick to hand the break back and then Sinner held after saving a break point before Carballes Baena outdid his previous service game by getting broken from 40-0. That seemed to break the Spaniard's resistance as a relatively easy hold from Sinner followed, before Carballes Baena had to save a load of break points to keep the deficit to just one break. Sinner then held serve in another nervy game where he had to recover from 0-30, which left Carballes Baena needing to hold serve to stay in the match. He got to 30-0 before losing four points in a row to hand victory to Sinner. Based on that performance, Sinner is going home as soon as he meets a better clay court player than Carballes Baena - he just doesn't have nous to win on clay at this level yet.
The outright of mine that was in action was Tsitsipas, and I'm not going to add too much to what I wrote earlier whilst he was playing his match. It's going to be very difficult for him to go much further, both because of fatigue and also because his return game just isn't there right now. For as well as Kolar played - and he did play really well - creating only twelve break points and taking just three of those points across four sets isn't good enough, particularly when you compare it to someone like Alcaraz who although wasteful created nearly twice as many break points during the first four sets of his match against Ramos-Vinolas. That lack of cutting edge on return is what led to three tie-breaks and such a long match and it doesn't matter who you're playing against, your chances of winning a set diminish at the tie-break stage. Tsitsipas won the second set breaker, lost the third and should have lost the forth. On another day he'd have been taken to five sets and maybe even have lost the match because of his inability to break.

yeah, sadly there are 0 improvements in tsitsipas's game , I wouldn t say his topspin bh is weak but his defense on that side is prety pathetic..dunno how someone as talented as him can t slice properly or use the dropshot better/more

His backhand is just a weak shot. He needs to do something about it, otherwise he's hit his peak. When you combine his backhand with his poor return game, he actually deserves a lot of credit for having got a far as he's got. His serve and forehand are able a lot of the time to compensate for those deficiencies, although I wouldn't say either were great just now and that combined with Kolar raising his level is probably why it ended up being such a close match. Tsitsipas definitely got away with one there, it should have gone to a final set and I don't know if Tsitsipas would have won that.

Iga is super! Bravo Iga, i love you till the eternity.
Let's see if there will be any one to stop Iga winning all WTA as adult against children. 
Iga is a miracle! 

Just a boosted treble for me today and a couple more outright bets. The treble consists of Ruud, Medvedev and Sinner all to win which has been boosted to nearly even money. Ruud and Sinner should be easy winners and so the wildcard is Medvedev who doesn't have the best record on clay but even considering that this seems worth taking, particularly as he was talking positively after his first round match. I don't think he'll find it easy against Djere, who's a very competent clay court player who pushed Djokovic hard on the surface recently, but I do think he'll get the win although probably with a dropped set along the way.
In the outrights, I'm adding to my position on Alcaraz as his price has drifted. Most likely the drift is due to him struggling so badly as such a big favourite against Ramos-Vinolas and also because of the potential impact of accumulated fatigue. In normal circumstances I'd agree that so much energy spent on the court against an opponent who was supposed to have been beaten easily would be a bad thing, but in this case I think it might do more good than harm. Coming into this tournament there was a question mark about how Alcaraz would cope in longer matches, and having just played and won the longest match of his career and having done it from two sets to one down that question has been answered. I think it'll give Alcaraz a big boost to know that he can go the distance and find a way to win when not at his best and staring down the barrel of defeat, which is what all the best players are able to do if needed.
I've also added to my bet on Tsitsipas as he's also drifted slightly which is probably to do with easy wins for both Djokovic and Nadal. He plays today and should get a win in straight sets, which should help to offset his exertions against Musetti in the last round.
 
10pts Ruud (vs. Ruusuvuori) x Medvedev (vs. Djere) x Sinner (vs. Carballes Baena) @ 1.94 365
20pts Alcaraz to win ATP French Open @ 4.14 Betfair Exchange
15pts Tsitsipas to win ATP French Open @ 7.27 Betfair Exchange
 

Holger Noedskov Rune to beat Denis Shapovalov at 2.2 with bet365
Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.66 with bet365
Elise Mertens to beat Mari Bouzkova at 1.9 with bet365
Rune aspires to become an established force on clay, and I think that he proceeds slowly and methodically in the right direction. He's a young guy with plenty of ambition. Sure, someone may argue that he's still mentally fragile, but so is his opponent. As far as the game is concerned, I expect Rune to expose and exploit Shapovalov's bh which remains unreliable and weak after so many years; I believe his game is ideal only for grass.
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Ruusuvuori and Humbert were considered as hot prospects for the future a few years ago, when they were dominant forces in the ATP Challenger Tour. Both have failed to live up to the expectations of the global tennis community so far. I think the Frenchman thrives on a very specific type of hardcourt (Tokyo Olympics). His game seems to be inadequate, especially on clay. Ruusuvuori possesses more firepower and builds the point better than Ugo on slow surfaces... 
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I cannot understand why Mertens isn't a clear favorite against Bouzkova to be honest. Personally I evaluate her as a much better player than Mari, on all aspects of the game (serve, fh, bh, retrieving skills, creating angles, footwork etc).
 
Good luck.

Only 3 low priced matches today;
5/24/2022  de Minaur v H Gaston             A de Minaur   0.16 5/24/2022  Collins v Tomova             Collins   0.12 5/24/2022  Pegula v Q Wang             Pegula, Jessica 0.2 Collins is very good on clay and I expect her to win easily. I would be going for the Collins win and under 18.5 games which is even money on bet365. I will also take in form Claire Lui to win against Zidansek and take these two as a double (2.0*1.8) -1 = 2.6 to 1.
In another upset I think Mayer Sherif beats Marta Kostyuk. Kostyuk all over the place, inconsistent, with the Ukrainian war occupying her mind at the moment.
Looking at how Wang has been beaten on clay, the serve is definitely weak. Will also take Pegula -5 handicap.
 
 

Moutet just looks as fresh as a daisy, and he has the crowd on his side.

Seems that Thiem is lost in space at the moment. I don't know what to expect from him in future. Perhaps a new Del Porto case? 
Nadal won his first Roland Garros title in 2005 at the age of 19. Alcaraz is 19 years old!
If Tsitsipas don't get rid of his mug father, no chance to make any progress. I agree that he hasn't improve his game in the last 3 years. He is moving backwards instead of forwards.
I can not understand why he dosn't fire for ever a father that destroys him with his ugly and rude behavior.
For me Alcaraz/Swiatek to win in ATP and WTA respectively. 

This is gonna be a long tournament. Can't get past the 1st leg of the 1st bet. And Schwartzman getting bagel'ed in 2nd set , and Altmaier losing his serve 16 times

Iga Swiatek @10/11 bet365  to lift the WTA trophy.
Who else? No one in my eyes

I think there a a few matches worth taking today.
Djoko looks very good. Only issue is a mental one, where he loses a little focus ... but as for hitting the ball, he looks great. For me the key matchup is backhand cross court, where the Tsitsipas (1 handed) backhand will not hold up. Djoko too consistent, patient, powerful and accurate here. Just for fun, go and find a youtube video of Djoko doing backhand rotations with a medicine ball (https://www.facebook.com/TennisLegendOfficial/videos/novak-djokovic-medecine-ball-workout/10153373516061806/). Holy cow ... Crazy strong, I get tired from watching him. Djoko will pound him into the ground there, and will win a relatively close match.
Jabeur is on borrowed time in this tournament. Should have been beaten by Sakkari, and even yesterday Kasatkina was serving at 5-4 deciding set. Kasatkina gave it away dropping serve twice in a row and losing 7-5 in the decider. Jabeur probably quite tired, after two 3 setters in a row, while Swiatek comes into this match fresh, after a 6-1 6-2 demolition of Sabalenka. For me this match is an absolute no-contest. Swiatek will move better, serve better, hit the ball better, and be stronger mentally and fresher physically. First set is probably crucial, but when Swiatek wins it, there is NO WAY that Jabeur can come back (of course the odds will be miniscule).
I don't like the starting -5.5 handicap, but if/when Swiatek wins the 1st set, the 2nd may just be one way traffic (so maybe an inplay bet here). I would be going Swiatek in 2 sets (1.5).
As mentioned before I see Claire Lui is in the final of the WTA in Paris, played Haddad Maia. I am happy with a smallish bet on her winning here (at odds of even money).
I'll take her as a single and Djoko and Swiatek as a double.
I'm off to play tennis (8.30 am kickoff). 4 tough sets of doubles, then some breakfast with the guys. Weather looks perfect. Great morning ahead ?
 

I like both stefanos and novak, but from what I ve seen untill now, djokovic just has the clearly higher level(IMO tsitsipas is worse this year on clay than he was last year plus that he seemed so drained at the end of the zverev match).novak's ball striking seems to be at it's best again and I just can t see tsistsipas hanging with him consistently in rallies. It's just djokovic's focus that needs to hold up and get that win.

If Djoko plays like this he is basically unbeatable. Got everything. Serve is soo good when he needs it. His ability to hit that two handed backhand is amazing, and his court coverage is incredible.
Just gotta see the French open draw, and if him and Alcaraz are in different main sections you can call it for the final. Even for the 1st 4 rounds you can probably take Djoko/Alcaraz/Swiatek as a treble in every round, and come the quarters they will all be in the draw. Each of them are unbelievably difficult to beat.
 

I think WAW has the name, and Djere has the power these days. 

I think WAW has the name, and Djere has the power these days. 

Contrasting opinions are just what I like to see. Gives a more rounded appraisal of a match and helps to better inform any bet that might be taken.