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Faramund

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Everything posted by Faramund

  1. Hi everyone! I'm working on a new system at the moment which involves heavy favourites. Im aiming for selections between $1.15 and $1.30. What sports have people found the favourites do better in? Also if not betting just head to head what markets in sports have you had more success on with short priced favourites? Thanks in advance guys!
  2. Hi Bart, thanks heaps for the reply, very useful stuff! Hopefully i should have most of the basics of poker handled, but i am worried about more complex things like straddles that i wont react to properly. Are there any common changes from basic play that i should try to make myself aware of?
  3. Not sure if this is posted in the right spot, apologies if it Isn't! So I have an interest in poker, i enjoy playing it socially with friends and even watching it occasionally on TV when i can, but I've never played it at a venue competitively. There are reasonably small tournaments in my town, which from what i understand are satellites to regional and bigger ones. My questions are how much do you think players at the tables are willing to accept new players who might not fully understand all the rules? How could i get better before i went to one of these tournaments? The buy ins are like $10 up to around $50 locally so i mean i get that it is still very amateur but i don't want to go and be an annoyance or look stupid in front of the strangers. Any advice or tips are much appreciated. How did you start playing? and when did you feel confident to go to public tournaments? Thanks
  4. Win - 17.00 units. Bet 2 Event - NRL North Qld v Souths Bet - North Qld Odds - 1.48 Stake - 117.00 units
  5. Bet 1 Event - Oldham Athletic v Middlesbrough Capital Cup Bet - Middlesbrough to Score Odds - $1.17 Stake - 100.00 units
  6. Starting with 100 Stakes, see how far i can take this. Baby steps to start with, lets try to get to 500 Stakes and then take out the initial investment. The bets will be in any event that interests me. Australian sports will be included heavily. Australian time zone, but rotating work times means my bets will be random in nature im afraid! Me and a few mates are doing these bets with a local betting outlet, so the odds aren't fantastic, but it is a lot easier for us logistically than betting with several different online accounts in order to ensure the best odds. Wish me luck! Current Stakes - 100.00
  7. Re: Stats Based Betting System Thank you for your reply! Sorry i wasn't clear, the numbers are just the odds Basically i was working on betting results for favourites under 1.5 odds in 5 major football leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and Liga BBVA) i took historical data of last year, which had average odds from around 20ish bookmakers to give me accurate odds. With flat betting stakes, the system gave a 39.85% return on investment, and this data included a rough patch of 8 losses in 11 matches. During the season however this return went as high as 77%. Of the 417 games across these leagues that met the odds criteria, 326 of them paid out, a 78% result. Most of these were home favourites, with their winning percentage coming in at 80%, and away favourites slightly lower at 69%. A stronger wagering system may be able to take advantage of this than simple flat stakes. I do not have the strongest knowledge of football, being non-European, without my investigation i have very limited exposure to football news, particularly outside of the occasional EPL scores. Now with some application of knowledge, even simple stuff like being wary of Man Utd until they sort out their formation and playing group will let me avoid some riskier bets, but largely the system would be left as a number crunching excercise , withthe risks being spread across many bets. I understand that this isnt fool-proof, but the price set by a bookmaker is essentially based on supply and demand for the bet, and the demand is driven by people who have more knowledge than me betting on it. Due to being really quite busy i havnt been able to do any paper runs on the current season, this is the first chance i have had to visit this since the off season. Hope that cleared it up a bit! Thanks for your feedback!
  8. Hi all, just looking for some discussion on purely stats based systems. A system I have in mind of building takes its cues primarily from economic principles and analysis of markets and translating it to betting markets. Obviously the prices given by a bookmaker are a reflection of information known by the market. Using the market prices delivered by bookmakers, the numbers will contain information such as form, players in or out of teams, table positions etc. While there are clearly risks with not applying a level of knowledge and reasoning to your bets, has anyone had any success with betting purely based on numbers, and a wagering system based on the risk that the odds convey. Very curious to see whether this can be applied with no or little knowledge of a given sport or league. I know that there are risks with long droughts of results, and when favourites lose, but a sound wagering system might be able to control these risks. Thanks.
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