Jazzer Isaac

Most 180s of the week - Michael van Gerwen @ 5/6. 5 points. Betfred.
I won't bore you with the sums but this is way, way over on PL performance this season.
A lot of the excess probability is held in Lewis' price, which I think is under due to his 9 last week. MvG beats him comfortably over summed 2 game samples and beats the field >90% when 2 plays 1 matchwise.
Biggest bet I've had since the World Matchplay. 
Definitely a price worth having. Hopefully Michael does the business.

Monday
Justin Pipe vs Steve Beaton
The double-in format, the set format and the short length of first round matches make this stage of the tournament difficult to price accurately. But I think you may be getting a decent bet on this.
I was disappointed when these two drew each other – both haven't been playing to their abilities recently and I was looking at two losses had they not drawn each other.
Steve Beaton is a player on a bad run. The last match he won on TV was in November 2013 and the one before that was December 2012. Despite having some bad luck with the draw over the past year, he hasn't backed up his run of losses with any particularly good perfomances. I backed against him with 5 points at the last big tournament in July and have him marked to lose should he qualify for any of the major tournaments in the coming months.
Beaton is the weakest player in this field in my opinion. He got to this tournament with £24750 earned in the pro-tour events over the past year – the cut-off was £22750 and he accrued more money than 7 other qualifiers. But an analysis of where this money was earned is telling: by reaching the final of a European Tour event in late 2014, he earned himself seeding in the first 6 European Tour events of 2015, guaranteeing 6 automatic second round places and importantly 6 £1500-minimum cheques. Effectively, he won £9000 of that £22750 prize money for turning up at the venue. Beaton qualified for only 1 of the other 3 European events this season, and since that run to the final he has only won 4 times in 27 matches against top 32 players.
Justin Pipe has won only one match on TV since December 2013, but he has maintained a steady top 16 ranking through his off-camera performances. I don't expect his poor TV run to continue in the long term, he is too good of a player and in the worst case scenario, he will eventually draw someone who can't deal with his throwing pace. As I said though, had he drawn any top 16 player here, I would have him down to lose this one. As it is, I have this as a 4/6 Pipe 6/4 Beaton match.
The double-in format of this tournament is not conducive to 180 hitting. I did some research to gauge how much of an effect it had, but quickly realised that the key sample I was collecting would be too small (in the time available) to draw any definite conclusions from. I decided to formulate an upper bound on the effectiveness instead:
-You can not score a 180 on your checking-in turn. 
-The average checking-in turn in this format is about 80 (call this 60 for bound reasons). 
-I estimate the number of 180s hit with a starting score between 501-441 at this level (this is the sample that I realised would take too long to fully collect) is about a sixth of the total 180s hit (with almost all of this number coming from a spike at 501 and a much smaller hump at 444-441).
So with a fair bit of noise, it can be assumed that you will get at most 5/6ths of the return you'd expect from a standard start match of the same number of legs on average.
-Pipe has averaged 1 180 per 5.3 standard start legs over the past year.
-Beaton has averaged 1 180 per 6.2 standard start legs over the past year.
You're expecting 1 180 per 2.9 standard start legs in a match between these two.
-There are 10.0 legs per first round match in this tournament.
And 2.8 goes into 10.0 3.4 times. Apply the bounded double-in 'filter' and I think I've got a bet – apply it in real terms and it becomes even better.
Obviously by this point the variance on my calculations was like a bucking horse trying to throw me away from putting my cash down, but I liked these instinctively when I saw them and the statistics somewhat suggest my thoughts were right.
-u3.5 180s @ 4/6. 2 points. Coral. 
-u2.5 180s @ 7/5. 1 points. Betfair.
-u1.5 180s @ 19/5. 1 point. Betfair.

+16.33 points. Can't complain about that!