Valiant Thor

Yes the 2 smallest

Its not as straight forward as it seems at first glance proceed with caution
Id concentrate on the most valuable race of the day as a trial to see how it pans out (paper test)
Today's is the 2.00 at Wincanton
    rating Odds TOTAL Selections 127 The Kings Writ  0 9 9   125 Poppa Poutine  2 6.5 8.5 x 125 Oscar Robertson  2 3.75 5.75 x 122 Truckin Away  5 13 18   120 Ede'iffs Elton  7 4 11   120 Favori De Sivola  7 6.5 13.5   116 Putdecashonthedash  11 9.5 20.5                                                                                                                                                                                              

Its not as straight forward as it seems at first glance proceed with caution
Id concentrate on the most valuable race of the day as a trial to see how it pans out (paper test)
Today's is the 2.00 at Wincanton
    rating Odds TOTAL Selections 127 The Kings Writ  0 9 9   125 Poppa Poutine  2 6.5 8.5 x 125 Oscar Robertson  2 3.75 5.75 x 122 Truckin Away  5 13 18   120 Ede'iffs Elton  7 4 11   120 Favori De Sivola  7 6.5 13.5   116 Putdecashonthedash  11 9.5 20.5                                                                                                                                                                                              

Correct
The race was won by Intricate Web @ 10/1

no they are the discarded horses
The ratings go from
Smallest (best)
Largest (worst)

This is the quick way how Bowers would reduced a race down to half the field

OR is a weighting method in handicaps ,in flat racing there should be a  14lb difference between top/bottom weight anything over 14lb is out of the handicap.
***THIS IS ONLY AN EXAMPLE OF LINEAR WEIGHTING AND NOT THE CORRECT WIN RATIOS***
 
Say top OR wins 33% of its races .. so  0 = 33%
1lb less wins 28% of its races so -1 = 28%
Etc Etc
If you take the top weight as 0 then -1 every lb below  top weight provides your rating anything greater than -14 is out of the hcp so classed as -14
the win % gives you your expected break even price
Take Todays 5.30 @ Kemp


The above Its pretty self explanatory .
the red circled number on the top row is the sum of the win%'s  which should then be divided into the win % of each horse to make overall % of all runners to1.
1 would then be divided by the new %'s to give the Min Odds
Divide the min odds by 1+your REALISTIC profit margin Range (mim/max) and there is the price you should be looking for
IE
Arousing  .33/1.03 = .32 = MIN Odds  =3.12 if your min req edge is 15% then you would multiply 3.12* 1.15 =3.58 so anything above 3.58 would give you your required profit
as it happens it won @ 4.00 happy days
All you need to do is find the correct Win% per pound for each rating and there you have it
ATB
VT

This is the quick way how Bowers would reduced a race down to half the field

This is the quick way how Bowers would reduced a race down to half the field

OR is a weighting method in handicaps ,in flat racing there should be a  14lb difference between top/bottom weight anything over 14lb is out of the handicap.
***THIS IS ONLY AN EXAMPLE OF LINEAR WEIGHTING AND NOT THE CORRECT WIN RATIOS***
 
Say top OR wins 33% of its races .. so  0 = 33%
1lb less wins 28% of its races so -1 = 28%
Etc Etc
If you take the top weight as 0 then -1 every lb below  top weight provides your rating anything greater than -14 is out of the hcp so classed as -14
the win % gives you your expected break even price
Take Todays 5.30 @ Kemp


The above Its pretty self explanatory .
the red circled number on the top row is the sum of the win%'s  which should then be divided into the win % of each horse to make overall % of all runners to1.
1 would then be divided by the new %'s to give the Min Odds
Divide the min odds by 1+your REALISTIC profit margin Range (mim/max) and there is the price you should be looking for
IE
Arousing  .33/1.03 = .32 = MIN Odds  =3.12 if your min req edge is 15% then you would multiply 3.12* 1.15 =3.58 so anything above 3.58 would give you your required profit
as it happens it won @ 4.00 happy days
All you need to do is find the correct Win% per pound for each rating and there you have it
ATB
VT

OR is a weighting method in handicaps ,in flat racing there should be a  14lb difference between top/bottom weight anything over 14lb is out of the handicap.
***THIS IS ONLY AN EXAMPLE OF LINEAR WEIGHTING AND NOT THE CORRECT WIN RATIOS***
 
Say top OR wins 33% of its races .. so  0 = 33%
1lb less wins 28% of its races so -1 = 28%
Etc Etc
If you take the top weight as 0 then -1 every lb below  top weight provides your rating anything greater than -14 is out of the hcp so classed as -14
the win % gives you your expected break even price
Take Todays 5.30 @ Kemp


The above Its pretty self explanatory .
the red circled number on the top row is the sum of the win%'s  which should then be divided into the win % of each horse to make overall % of all runners to1.
1 would then be divided by the new %'s to give the Min Odds
Divide the min odds by 1+your REALISTIC profit margin Range (mim/max) and there is the price you should be looking for
IE
Arousing  .33/1.03 = .32 = MIN Odds  =3.12 if your min req edge is 15% then you would multiply 3.12* 1.15 =3.58 so anything above 3.58 would give you your required profit
as it happens it won @ 4.00 happy days
All you need to do is find the correct Win% per pound for each rating and there you have it
ATB
VT

He used linear weighting,
using the %age win chance of the weight carried by the runners as a rating

He used linear weighting,
using the %age win chance of the weight carried by the runners as a rating

PAGES 8 to 17 could give you some ideas

ATB
VT

PAGES 8 to 17 could give you some ideas

ATB
VT

PAGES 8 to 17 could give you some ideas

ATB
VT

PAGES 8 to 17 could give you some ideas

ATB
VT

Sp is the best indicator of W.O.M / public opinion  , The closer to 1.00 the more accurate the market confidence.
This leads to the problem of finding EV as you never know what the sp is until the off.
Therefore its good practice to price the races up yourself with an achievable profit margin built in (15% ish), the more accurate your pricing is the better chance of making a profit , only then taking a bet on if it is equal to or better than your expected price.

Sp is the best indicator of W.O.M / public opinion  , The closer to 1.00 the more accurate the market confidence.
This leads to the problem of finding EV as you never know what the sp is until the off.
Therefore its good practice to price the races up yourself with an achievable profit margin built in (15% ish), the more accurate your pricing is the better chance of making a profit , only then taking a bet on if it is equal to or better than your expected price.

Sp is the best indicator of W.O.M / public opinion  , The closer to 1.00 the more accurate the market confidence.
This leads to the problem of finding EV as you never know what the sp is until the off.
Therefore its good practice to price the races up yourself with an achievable profit margin built in (15% ish), the more accurate your pricing is the better chance of making a profit , only then taking a bet on if it is equal to or better than your expected price.

Sp is the best indicator of W.O.M / public opinion  , The closer to 1.00 the more accurate the market confidence.
This leads to the problem of finding EV as you never know what the sp is until the off.
Therefore its good practice to price the races up yourself with an achievable profit margin built in (15% ish), the more accurate your pricing is the better chance of making a profit , only then taking a bet on if it is equal to or better than your expected price.

I've bought the book @Valiant Thor you mentioned. I think this suits well. Thanks for the tip!

There's not that much wrong with Poisson, does what it says on the tin so to speak
Its just people tend to take its result as "carved in stone" and are surprised when everything doesn't turn out hunky dory.
That's why models should be checked with other methods (chi etc) for validity
Zero Inflated poison is a better model for football IMO as it takes into account the additional amount of 0 goals that occur
maybe that model would be better suited to AGS as there's more times they have 0 goals than 1+ goals
G'luck
VT

Thanks for the replies. I'll have a look at that. I embarked on a data gathering exercise (now up to around 1100 players) of players within certain price parameters. That's turned into the system I'm currently trying out in "Systems and Strategy". Basically I'm using the spread prices to arrive at "fair" and "back" (fair +10% edge) odds. It does involve the use of the dreaded possion but one has to start somewhere!

For some reason it keeps posting itself while Im writing the rough draft ....strange
Above should be correct now @harry_rag
Ps
I didnt find any references to a CGS model in any books I have, sorry