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Valiant Thor
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Friday 13th May
My ratings for York today
'Expected Value' bets in yellow win only regardless of odds
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Racing chat-thurs 12th May (york day 2)
Nothing much to shout about , Bowers ratings got at least 1 placed in all races bar 1.
The problem with Bower ratings is that they are time dependent in a live market, I suppose the odds part of his ratings should be taken as near to the race start as possible .
As for my ratings I backed the yellow 'expected value' selections to win only and had a 9/1 winner but 12pts out and 10pts in is not good ( hardly do ew if , I do I usually do 20%win & 80%place of my stake on BF)
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing chat-weds 11th May (york fest)
1pt ew all 8 16pts staked
I should have stated these are derived from 'Eric Bowers' ratings not mine
These are my own ratings Ive omitted the 1.50 as its already run
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from alexcaruso808 in Racing chat-weds 11th May (york fest)
1pt ew all 8 16pts staked
I should have stated these are derived from 'Eric Bowers' ratings not mine
These are my own ratings Ive omitted the 1.50 as its already run
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing chat-weds 11th May (york fest)
1pt ew all 8 16pts staked
I should have stated these are derived from 'Eric Bowers' ratings not mine
These are my own ratings Ive omitted the 1.50 as its already run
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from black rabbit in Racing chat-weds 11th May (york fest)
1pt ew all 8 16pts staked
I should have stated these are derived from 'Eric Bowers' ratings not mine
These are my own ratings Ive omitted the 1.50 as its already run
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in Racing chat-weds 11th May (york fest)
1pt ew all 8 16pts staked
I should have stated these are derived from 'Eric Bowers' ratings not mine
These are my own ratings Ive omitted the 1.50 as its already run
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing chat-weds 11th May (york fest)
1pt ew all 8 16pts staked
I should have stated these are derived from 'Eric Bowers' ratings not mine
These are my own ratings Ive omitted the 1.50 as its already run
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing chat-weds 11th May (york fest)
1pt ew all 8 16pts staked
I should have stated these are derived from 'Eric Bowers' ratings not mine
These are my own ratings Ive omitted the 1.50 as its already run
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
close but no cigar
As I stated in the other thread, paying attention to the highest value race seems the way to go if just using the basic method.
Revolver @ 8/1 ep & 9/1 sp was in the highest value race and came 2nd so a profit ew
ATB
VT
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Relating to THIS POST there's a few "Eric Bowers" selections of interest today ?
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome
Relating to THIS POST there's a few "Eric Bowers" selections of interest today ?
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in AINTREE - TIPSTERS COMPETITION - DAY 1 SELECTIONS
1.45 Pic D'Orhy
2.20 Brazil
2.55 Clan De Obeaux
3.30 Epatante
4.05 Cat Tiger
4.40 Before Midnight
5.15 Ashroe Diamond
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March
Its not as straight forward as it seems at first glance proceed with caution
Id concentrate on the most valuable race of the day as a trial to see how it pans out (paper test)
Today's is the 2.00 at Wincanton
rating Odds TOTAL Selections 127 The Kings Writ 0 9 9 125 Poppa Poutine 2 6.5 8.5 x 125 Oscar Robertson 2 3.75 5.75 x 122 Truckin Away 5 13 18 120 Ede'iffs Elton 7 4 11 120 Favori De Sivola 7 6.5 13.5 116 Putdecashonthedash 11 9.5 20.5 -
Valiant Thor got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March
Correct
The race was won by Intricate Web @ 10/1
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March
no they are the discarded horses
The ratings go from
Smallest (best)
Largest (worst)
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March
This is the quick way how Bowers would reduced a race down to half the field
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Valiant Thor got a reaction from gbettle in Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March
OR is a weighting method in handicaps ,in flat racing there should be a 14lb difference between top/bottom weight anything over 14lb is out of the handicap.
***THIS IS ONLY AN EXAMPLE OF LINEAR WEIGHTING AND NOT THE CORRECT WIN RATIOS***
Say top OR wins 33% of its races .. so 0 = 33%
1lb less wins 28% of its races so -1 = 28%
Etc Etc
If you take the top weight as 0 then -1 every lb below top weight provides your rating anything greater than -14 is out of the hcp so classed as -14
the win % gives you your expected break even price
Take Todays 5.30 @ Kemp
The above Its pretty self explanatory .
the red circled number on the top row is the sum of the win%'s which should then be divided into the win % of each horse to make overall % of all runners to1.
1 would then be divided by the new %'s to give the Min Odds
Divide the min odds by 1+your REALISTIC profit margin Range (mim/max) and there is the price you should be looking for
IE
Arousing .33/1.03 = .32 = MIN Odds =3.12 if your min req edge is 15% then you would multiply 3.12* 1.15 =3.58 so anything above 3.58 would give you your required profit
as it happens it won @ 4.00 happy days
All you need to do is find the correct Win% per pound for each rating and there you have it
ATB
VT