Valiant Thor

Its tested on 10yrs data
 Yes, 1 days poor results can be put down to statistical variance , but only if derived from the same model, ATM I dont know if it was variance or due to dropping  Runners from the model.
Its not the point about 1 days data its that I made a change in the way the data was read ,making any change can effect the output when modelling ,when I ran it through LazyPredict it gave different models for with and without Runners which points toward that being a possible problem.
How LazyPredict selects the model to use

Ran a couple of tests this morning to see if I could suss why it performed so badly yesterday
I noticed that when I dropped Runners to clean up the printout I also dropped it from being evaluated from the main dataset as well
Running a tests through both Dabl & LazyPredict  showed I should run it through different models if dropping Runners from the dataset
so Ive turned it back on in the dataset and see how it goes. ( a bit trial & error atm but has to be done)
lets see how today's fare (at least there's only 6 that can lose today)
22/05/2022 11:15:15 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 0 14.30 Nottingham Dark Shift  9-0 4.06 2.87 1 15.40 Nottingham Four Adaay  9-3 5.58 3.00 2 16.10 Nottingham Hackberry  8-9 3.82 8.00 3 17.05 York Mostawaa  9-0 8.88 21.00 4 17.35 York Hyperfocus  8-10 10.38 23.00 5 18.05 York Evaluation  9-5 9.04 8.50  
 

Putting tomorrows up now as Im out early doors and for most of the day tomorrrow
Lucky 13 selections
20/05/2022 23:38:58 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 0 13.40 York Northern Express  9-2 6.04 6.00 1 14.00 Haydock Haveyoumissedme  8-9 6.90 12.00 2 14.28 Musselburgh Uccello  8-9 3.21 5.00 3 14.50 Goodwood Secret Shadow  8-4 5.54 5.50 4 14.55 York Look Out Louis  8-13 5.55 6.50 5 15.38 Musselburgh Vindobala  8-13 5.32 4.33 6 16.20 Haydock Justcallmepete  9-11 6.39 3.50 7 16.35 Goodwood Sir Henry Cotton  9-2 6.04 5.50 8 16.48 Musselburgh Aquamas  9-9 9.83 3.00 9 16.55 Haydock Uncle Jumbo  8-13 4.95 23.00 10 17.15 York Tamaska  9-4 9.89 5.50 11 17.23 Musselburgh The Gloaming  9-10 4.28 4.50 12 19.15 Lingfield Latent Heat  10-3 6.08 11.00  

Well today went down like a lead balloon ☹️
12 runners 12 losers 1 nr 
21/05/2022 20:38:40
Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit cum_ep cum_sp 0 13.40 York Northern Express  9-2 6.04 6.00 l 4.33 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 14.00 Haydock Haveyoumissedme  8-9 6.90 12.00 l 6.5 -1 -1 -2 -2 2 14.28 Musselburgh Uccello  8-9 3.21 5.00 l 7.5 -1 -1 -3 -3 3 14.50 Goodwood Secret Shadow  8-4 5.54 5.50 l 5.5 -1 -1 -4 -4 4 14.55 York Look Out Louis  8-13 5.55 6.50 l 5.5 -1 -1 -5 -5 5 15.38 Musselburgh Vindobala  8-13 5.32 4.33 l 3 -1 -1 -6 -6 6 16.20 Haydock Justcallmepete  9-11 6.39 3.50 nr nr 0 0 0 0 7 16.35 Goodwood Sir Henry Cotton  9-2 6.04 5.50 l 4.33 -1 -1 -1 -7 8 16.48 Musselburgh Aquamas  9-9 9.83 3.00 l 3.25 -1 -1 -2 -8 9 16.55 Haydock Uncle Jumbo  8-13 4.95 23.00 l 15 -1 -1 -3 -9 10 17.15 York Tamaska  9-4 9.89 5.50 l 4.33 -1 -1 -4 -10 11 17.23 Musselburgh The Gloaming  9-10 4.28 4.50 l 3.75 -1 -1 -5 -11 12 19.15 Lingfield Latent Heat  10-3 6.08 11.00 l 17 -1 -1 -6 -12 P&L Update
21/05/2022 20:41:00 date selections winners strikerate return cum_ret yield cum_yield 0 2022-05-18 9 3 0.33 3.50 3.50 0.39 0.39 1 2022-05-19 14 3 0.21 -1.00 2.50 -0.07 0.11 2 2022-05-20 11 2 0.18 0.75 3.25 0.07 0.10 3 2022-05-21 12 0 0.00 -12.00 -8.75 -1.00 -0.19  

Well today went down like a lead balloon ☹️
12 runners 12 losers 1 nr 
21/05/2022 20:38:40
Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit cum_ep cum_sp 0 13.40 York Northern Express  9-2 6.04 6.00 l 4.33 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 14.00 Haydock Haveyoumissedme  8-9 6.90 12.00 l 6.5 -1 -1 -2 -2 2 14.28 Musselburgh Uccello  8-9 3.21 5.00 l 7.5 -1 -1 -3 -3 3 14.50 Goodwood Secret Shadow  8-4 5.54 5.50 l 5.5 -1 -1 -4 -4 4 14.55 York Look Out Louis  8-13 5.55 6.50 l 5.5 -1 -1 -5 -5 5 15.38 Musselburgh Vindobala  8-13 5.32 4.33 l 3 -1 -1 -6 -6 6 16.20 Haydock Justcallmepete  9-11 6.39 3.50 nr nr 0 0 0 0 7 16.35 Goodwood Sir Henry Cotton  9-2 6.04 5.50 l 4.33 -1 -1 -1 -7 8 16.48 Musselburgh Aquamas  9-9 9.83 3.00 l 3.25 -1 -1 -2 -8 9 16.55 Haydock Uncle Jumbo  8-13 4.95 23.00 l 15 -1 -1 -3 -9 10 17.15 York Tamaska  9-4 9.89 5.50 l 4.33 -1 -1 -4 -10 11 17.23 Musselburgh The Gloaming  9-10 4.28 4.50 l 3.75 -1 -1 -5 -11 12 19.15 Lingfield Latent Heat  10-3 6.08 11.00 l 17 -1 -1 -6 -12 P&L Update
21/05/2022 20:41:00 date selections winners strikerate return cum_ret yield cum_yield 0 2022-05-18 9 3 0.33 3.50 3.50 0.39 0.39 1 2022-05-19 14 3 0.21 -1.00 2.50 -0.07 0.11 2 2022-05-20 11 2 0.18 0.75 3.25 0.07 0.10 3 2022-05-21 12 0 0.00 -12.00 -8.75 -1.00 -0.19  

Putting tomorrows up now as Im out early doors and for most of the day tomorrrow
Lucky 13 selections
20/05/2022 23:38:58 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 0 13.40 York Northern Express  9-2 6.04 6.00 1 14.00 Haydock Haveyoumissedme  8-9 6.90 12.00 2 14.28 Musselburgh Uccello  8-9 3.21 5.00 3 14.50 Goodwood Secret Shadow  8-4 5.54 5.50 4 14.55 York Look Out Louis  8-13 5.55 6.50 5 15.38 Musselburgh Vindobala  8-13 5.32 4.33 6 16.20 Haydock Justcallmepete  9-11 6.39 3.50 7 16.35 Goodwood Sir Henry Cotton  9-2 6.04 5.50 8 16.48 Musselburgh Aquamas  9-9 9.83 3.00 9 16.55 Haydock Uncle Jumbo  8-13 4.95 23.00 10 17.15 York Tamaska  9-4 9.89 5.50 11 17.23 Musselburgh The Gloaming  9-10 4.28 4.50 12 19.15 Lingfield Latent Heat  10-3 6.08 11.00  

Putting tomorrows up now as Im out early doors and for most of the day tomorrrow
Lucky 13 selections
20/05/2022 23:38:58 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 0 13.40 York Northern Express  9-2 6.04 6.00 1 14.00 Haydock Haveyoumissedme  8-9 6.90 12.00 2 14.28 Musselburgh Uccello  8-9 3.21 5.00 3 14.50 Goodwood Secret Shadow  8-4 5.54 5.50 4 14.55 York Look Out Louis  8-13 5.55 6.50 5 15.38 Musselburgh Vindobala  8-13 5.32 4.33 6 16.20 Haydock Justcallmepete  9-11 6.39 3.50 7 16.35 Goodwood Sir Henry Cotton  9-2 6.04 5.50 8 16.48 Musselburgh Aquamas  9-9 9.83 3.00 9 16.55 Haydock Uncle Jumbo  8-13 4.95 23.00 10 17.15 York Tamaska  9-4 9.89 5.50 11 17.23 Musselburgh The Gloaming  9-10 4.28 4.50 12 19.15 Lingfield Latent Heat  10-3 6.08 11.00  

0/05/2022 21:07:05 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit cum_ep cum_sp 0 13.10 Bath Papas Girl  9-4 5.77 8.00 l 9.0 -1.00 -1.0 -1.00 -1.0 1 13.20 Haydock Ziggy  9-7 4.06 3.75 w 2.5 2.75 1.5 1.75 0.5 2 13.35 Goodwood Lawful Command  9-6 4.17 8.00 w 5.5 7.00 4.5 8.75 5.0 3 13.45 Bath Quarter Blue  9-2 4.11 5.00 l 8.0 -1.00 -1.0 7.75 4.0 4 14.55 Bath Sarah's Verse  9-6 5.12 6.00 l 4.0 -1.00 -1.0 6.75 3.0 5 15.30 Bath Coronation Cottage  9-4 4.79 13.00 l 15.0 -1.00 -1.0 5.75 2.0 6 16.30 Goodwood Diamond Bay  9-9 8.00 7.50 l 16.0 -1.00 -1.0 4.75 1.0 7 17.10 Bath Local Bay  9-8 7.83 5.50 l 19.0 -1.00 -1.0 3.75 0.0 8 18.28 Catterick Hellenista  9-1 5.61 6.50 l 9.0 -1.00 -1.0 2.75 -1.0 9 19.03 Catterick John Kirkup  9-8 3.04 10.00 l 8.0 -1.00 -1.0 1.75 -2.0 10 20.43 Catterick Mr Trevor  8-9 3.04 7.50 l 7.5 -1.00 -1.0 0.75 -3.0 After a promising start the wheels came off ☹️
Close calls with Sarahs Verse 3/1, Coronation Cottage 14/1 & Hellenista 8/1 but no cigar.
Have to settle for 0.75pts profit on the day ?

The story so far
Returns
20/05/2022 21:42:17 date selections winners strikerate return cum_ret yield cum_yield 0 2022-05-18 9 3 0.33 3.50 3.50 0.39 0.39 1 2022-05-19 14 3 0.21 -1.00 2.50 -0.07 0.11 2 2022-05-20 11 2 0.18 0.75 3.25 0.07 0.10      
 

The story so far
Returns
20/05/2022 21:42:17 date selections winners strikerate return cum_ret yield cum_yield 0 2022-05-18 9 3 0.33 3.50 3.50 0.39 0.39 1 2022-05-19 14 3 0.21 -1.00 2.50 -0.07 0.11 2 2022-05-20 11 2 0.18 0.75 3.25 0.07 0.10      
 

0/05/2022 21:07:05 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit cum_ep cum_sp 0 13.10 Bath Papas Girl  9-4 5.77 8.00 l 9.0 -1.00 -1.0 -1.00 -1.0 1 13.20 Haydock Ziggy  9-7 4.06 3.75 w 2.5 2.75 1.5 1.75 0.5 2 13.35 Goodwood Lawful Command  9-6 4.17 8.00 w 5.5 7.00 4.5 8.75 5.0 3 13.45 Bath Quarter Blue  9-2 4.11 5.00 l 8.0 -1.00 -1.0 7.75 4.0 4 14.55 Bath Sarah's Verse  9-6 5.12 6.00 l 4.0 -1.00 -1.0 6.75 3.0 5 15.30 Bath Coronation Cottage  9-4 4.79 13.00 l 15.0 -1.00 -1.0 5.75 2.0 6 16.30 Goodwood Diamond Bay  9-9 8.00 7.50 l 16.0 -1.00 -1.0 4.75 1.0 7 17.10 Bath Local Bay  9-8 7.83 5.50 l 19.0 -1.00 -1.0 3.75 0.0 8 18.28 Catterick Hellenista  9-1 5.61 6.50 l 9.0 -1.00 -1.0 2.75 -1.0 9 19.03 Catterick John Kirkup  9-8 3.04 10.00 l 8.0 -1.00 -1.0 1.75 -2.0 10 20.43 Catterick Mr Trevor  8-9 3.04 7.50 l 7.5 -1.00 -1.0 0.75 -3.0 After a promising start the wheels came off ☹️
Close calls with Sarahs Verse 3/1, Coronation Cottage 14/1 & Hellenista 8/1 but no cigar.
Have to settle for 0.75pts profit on the day ?

Nearly a profit to early prices already
Still 8 to go
20/05/2022 13:52:19 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit 0 13.10 Bath Papas Girl  9-4 5.77 8.00 l 9.0 -1.00 -1.0 1 13.20 Haydock Ziggy  9-7 4.06 3.75 w 2.5 2.75 1.5 2 13.35 Goodwood Lawful Command  9-6 4.17 8.00 w 5.5 7.00 4.5

2.20 @ Wolv  Giewont Backed all day down to 3/1  (10/1 @ 8.04 this morning when put up
That will do me 
Just discovered a problem with the concatenated data with this race , ignore the above ( Im a self taught programmer so sh*t happens sometimes,well a lot of the time actually )
Seems the odds/runners have got reversed on this runner  EP was 8 and runners was 10 so something got mixed up in the sorting somewhere along the lines ☹️
Will have to have a look at that after racing '
Will count Giewont @ sp 3/1 for this race .
Geiwonts ep odds at closing 18/05/2022 was 8.00 up till 9.00 where it started to get backed

Nearly a profit to early prices already
Still 8 to go
20/05/2022 13:52:19 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit 0 13.10 Bath Papas Girl  9-4 5.77 8.00 l 9.0 -1.00 -1.0 1 13.20 Haydock Ziggy  9-7 4.06 3.75 w 2.5 2.75 1.5 2 13.35 Goodwood Lawful Command  9-6 4.17 8.00 w 5.5 7.00 4.5

Nearly a profit to early prices already
Still 8 to go
20/05/2022 13:52:19 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit sp_Profit 0 13.10 Bath Papas Girl  9-4 5.77 8.00 l 9.0 -1.00 -1.0 1 13.20 Haydock Ziggy  9-7 4.06 3.75 w 2.5 2.75 1.5 2 13.35 Goodwood Lawful Command  9-6 4.17 8.00 w 5.5 7.00 4.5

Had a tinker last night & were with the new slimline view today.
The date is in the top left corner rather than before every horse along with time data is collected, not bothering with runners as they constantly change due to withdrawals and pretty useless anyway and only for an estimation of race size. B365 should be correct @ time stated in top left.

11 to go @ today
Lets see what happens .

Had a tinker last night & were with the new slimline view today.
The date is in the top left corner rather than before every horse along with time data is collected, not bothering with runners as they constantly change due to withdrawals and pretty useless anyway and only for an estimation of race size. B365 should be correct @ time stated in top left.

11 to go @ today
Lets see what happens .

Had a tinker last night & were with the new slimline view today.
The date is in the top left corner rather than before every horse along with time data is collected, not bothering with runners as they constantly change due to withdrawals and pretty useless anyway and only for an estimation of race size. B365 should be correct @ time stated in top left.

11 to go @ today
Lets see what happens .

Had a tinker last night & were with the new slimline view today.
The date is in the top left corner rather than before every horse along with time data is collected, not bothering with runners as they constantly change due to withdrawals and pretty useless anyway and only for an estimation of race size. B365 should be correct @ time stated in top left.

11 to go @ today
Lets see what happens .

1 pt loss on the day from 14 bets , with a 21% sr, A few close calls especially Dors Toyboy  but if only's don't make a profit ☹️
If the correct odds for Geiwont would have been posted instead of taking sp , we'd be looking @ at 3 pts profit but hey ho

1 pt loss on the day from 14 bets , with a 21% sr, A few close calls especially Dors Toyboy  but if only's don't make a profit ☹️
If the correct odds for Geiwont would have been posted instead of taking sp , we'd be looking @ at 3 pts profit but hey ho

I use the same as everyone else does ,horse, jockey,trainer , runners , course  etc etc .
a bot just reads the output data for the race & puts the bet on without me having to do anything its the algorithm that sorts the data from the database that does the work.
What Im trying to do atm is build an algorithm to price up Hcp races and select a horse that fits the bill within a reasonable  tolerence +/-, but its hard due to the nature of Hcp races thats why Ive stayed away from them. but im bored so thought Id have another crack at it , keeps me busy.
The problem is in handicaps most are inconsistent lower grade garbage , where some are 'not really trying' to get the hcp mark down, ,most runners are usually ridden by lower class jocks, apprentices or Luke Morris ?
etc. They aim them for gambles rather than racing to form due to crap prize money,
Where as top grade races (nonHcp) are running for prestige not to make a few quid .
 

2.20 @ Wolv  Giewont Backed all day down to 3/1  (10/1 @ 8.04 this morning when put up
That will do me 
Just discovered a problem with the concatenated data with this race , ignore the above ( Im a self taught programmer so sh*t happens sometimes,well a lot of the time actually )
Seems the odds/runners have got reversed on this runner  EP was 8 and runners was 10 so something got mixed up in the sorting somewhere along the lines ☹️
Will have to have a look at that after racing '
Will count Giewont @ sp 3/1 for this race .
Geiwonts ep odds at closing 18/05/2022 was 8.00 up till 9.00 where it started to get backed

Todays selections looks like about 3 or 4 needed for a profit/break even~
All prices/runners correct @ time of collected data (Timestamped)

 

Better than expected for starters 3 from 9    33% sr
3.5pts profit from 9pts staked 38.8% yield from B365 odds available @ time of posting.