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Valiant Thor

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Reputation Activity

  1. Sad
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 26th Sept   
    Sigh........ 7th ūüôĄ
  2. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Tedthewolf in Racing Chat - Saturday 26th Sept   
    Sly bet dont like me, neither do PP or else Id have used them, so I have to use whats available .If it had been a decent bet I'd use my lads account but for the sake of £10ew
    not worth bothering.
     
  3. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 26th Sept   
    Just the one selection for me 10pts ew  18/1 Unibet 6 places

  4. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 26th Sept   
    Just the one selection for me 10pts ew  18/1 Unibet 6 places

  5. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from nenad986 in Racing Chat - Saturday 26th Sept   
    Just the one selection for me 10pts ew  18/1 Unibet 6 places

  6. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Sunday Sept 20th   
    The 3 flat green tops (extra place races) got some reasonable priced placed horses but the twig hoppers failed to deliver which is no surprise really and just reinforces why I dont take much interest in twig hoppers
    In hindsight, taking the rated flat runners with a positive edge in an ew Trixie would have produced a nice payout (mainly thanks to the 50/1 shot ) but overall Im pleased with the outcome,it will be interesting to see how the parameters get adjusted now its run some live data.

    Will put the other results up if Hamilton eventually finishes before it gets dark

    Of the other Hcaps only 3 had a positive edge 1 placed @ 20/1 (extra place with skybet) the other 2 lost @ 7/1 & 15/2
    4 winners but non had a positive edge.
    Off to watch my NFL bets make some money
  7. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Sunday Sept 20th   
    The 3 flat green tops (extra place races) got some reasonable priced placed horses but the twig hoppers failed to deliver which is no surprise really and just reinforces why I dont take much interest in twig hoppers
    In hindsight, taking the rated flat runners with a positive edge in an ew Trixie would have produced a nice payout (mainly thanks to the 50/1 shot ) but overall Im pleased with the outcome,it will be interesting to see how the parameters get adjusted now its run some live data.

    Will put the other results up if Hamilton eventually finishes before it gets dark

    Of the other Hcaps only 3 had a positive edge 1 placed @ 20/1 (extra place with skybet) the other 2 lost @ 7/1 & 15/2
    4 winners but non had a positive edge.
    Off to watch my NFL bets make some money
  8. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Sunday Sept 20th   
    Laoise 50/1 second in the 2.05 Ham (green top) looks promising
  9. Thanks
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Sunday Sept 20th   
    Been spending most of my time on Kaggle lately and and Ive been quite impressed with the ease of use and results from XGBoost which seems to be the go to ML tool atm so Ive had a little play fired in some parameters and¬† given it a whirl on the 8+ runner hcaps to see how it fares today ūüôŹ.
    Ive incorporated an expected price algo in to give some idea of an expected edge if any against the horses price, +/- 10% of book price would be a reasonable expectation of the horses ratings accuracy at this early stage ( ie if Exp Odds is say 5.00 but price is 21 (320% edge) it does not mean massive value as the difference in odds is more likely due to missing data rather than a cock up by the bookies ūüėČ)
    Anyway Ive stuck them up for the maiden trial and see how they fare (Green tops are the extra place races which are the ones I'm mainly interested in for a possible future betting medium)
    All top rated are normalised to return max of 100 for ease of calculation with my pricing algo (Could just as easy be set to anything but 100 suits as its the Datum used for all of my other stuff ).

  10. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Sportwetten in VT's NFL Selections   
    WEEK 2


    7 selections this week

    **Best overall odds from 1 book @ time of posting, better odds may be available from selected books**

     
  11. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from harry_rag in VT's NFL Selections   
    WEEK 2


    7 selections this week

    **Best overall odds from 1 book @ time of posting, better odds may be available from selected books**

     
  12. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from MCLARKE in Latest Table - September 2020   
    IMO
    The definition of a good punter is one that starts with 100 and tries to win 10
    The definition of a bad punter is one that starts with 10 and expects to win 100
    The 'Tortoise and the Hare' springs to mind
  13. Like
    Valiant Thor reacted to BillyHills in Naps - Wednesday September 16th   
    I'm guessing its Dubai Outlaw
  14. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Latest Table - September 2020   
    IMO
    The definition of a good punter is one that starts with 100 and tries to win 10
    The definition of a bad punter is one that starts with 10 and expects to win 100
    The 'Tortoise and the Hare' springs to mind
  15. Like
    Valiant Thor reacted to MCLARKE in Latest Table - September 2020   
    Over the last 5 years there have been 16 horses that have started at shorter than 1/20 and they have all won.
  16. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Sportwetten in VT's NFL Selections   
    UPDATE WEEK 1




    1 push and 2 from 3 on the remaining selected bets. ( SF49's won but 4 short of the spread )
    A push for the NAP and an easy victory for the NB.



    Not a bad start to the season with a 64% sr on all selections (eat your heart out Teddy Covers )
  17. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in VT's NFL Selections   
    UPDATE WEEK 1




    1 push and 2 from 3 on the remaining selected bets. ( SF49's won but 4 short of the spread )
    A push for the NAP and an easy victory for the NB.



    Not a bad start to the season with a 64% sr on all selections (eat your heart out Teddy Covers )
  18. Like
    Valiant Thor reacted to Trotter in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    You can store your ratings on the RP but you have be a subscribed member
    Basically you input the rating for the winner and the site works out the ratings for the beaten horses then stores every rating on the horse's form page
    When I used to do my own speed ratings I did them manually then entered them on the RP site for storage and future reference
     
     
     
  19. Thanks
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Villa Chris in GENERAL RACING CHIT CHAT   
    I think @BillyHills uses horseracebase to come up with his ratings.
    You used to be able to do your own ratings on Racing Post I think dont know if you still can.
    Most who do there own use Access/Excel to create them
  20. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Sportwetten in VT's NFL Selections   
    EXPECTED  BOOKS           Week Date US Time Home Away H-Spread H-Spread ODDS selection BET W/L   1 Sep-10 8:20PM Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans -10.00 -9.00 1.91 Kansas City Chiefs -9 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts 5.00 7.50 1.91 Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 1:00PM New England Patriots Miami Dolphins -21.50 -10.00 2.20 New England Patriots -10 @ 2.2 BET   NAP 1 Sep-13 1:00PM Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers -2.00 -2.50 1.91 Green Bay Packers  2.5 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Detroit Lions Chicago Bears 4.50 -2.50 1.90 Chicago Bears  2.5 @ 1.9 BET     1 Sep-13 1:00PM Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns -16.00 -7.50 1.95 Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ 1.95 BET   NB 1 Sep-13 1:00PM Washington Football Team Philadelphia Eagles 10.50 6.00 1.95 Philadelphia Eagles  -6 @ 1.95       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Carolina Panthers Las Vegas Raiders 0.00 3.00 1.90 Carolina Panthers 3 @ 1.9       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Atlanta Falcons Seattle Seahawks 2.50 -1.00 1.86 Seattle Seahawks  1 @ 1.86       1 Sep-13 1:00PM Buffalo Bills New York Jets -8.50 -6.50 1.91 Buffalo Bills -6.5 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 4:05PM Cincinnati Bengals Los Angeles Chargers 6.50 3.00 1.83 Los Angeles Chargers  -3 @ 1.83       1 Sep-13 4:25PM San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals -15.00 -7.50 2.00 San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @ 2 BET     1 Sep-13 4:25PM New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.50 -8.00 1.91 Tampa Bay Buccaneers  8 @ 1.91       1 Sep-13 8:20PM Los Angeles Rams Dallas Cowboys 1.00 2.00 1.95 Los Angeles Rams 2 @ 1.95       1 Sep-14 7:15PM New York Giants Pittsburgh Steelers 8.00 6.00 1.91 Pittsburgh Steelers  -6 @ 1.91       1 Sep-14 10:10PM Denver Broncos Tennessee Titans 7.00 3.00 1.91 Tennessee Titans  -3 @ 1.91                            
    SELECTIONS                       New England Patriots -10 @ 2.2 BET NAP
    Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ 1.9 5 BET NB
    Chicago Bears  2.5 @ 1.9 BET
    San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @ 2 BET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
  21. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Thriftysolo in Quick System   
    Never in doubt
  22. Sad
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Monday Sept 7th   
    Giacomo 30.95 @ 4.33........Backed into 3/1 fav ......4th 
    El Astronaute 22.35 @ 6.....Backed into 4/1 ............4th
    Dhabyah 46.70 @ 2.87........Backed into 10/11 fav....2nd by a SH

    Bad day @ Blackrock
    This is exactly why I prefer to let my Algo on Betfair do my betting for me (its better at it than me that's for sure )
    1 bet 1 winner, Id have made 100pts more profit today and not even had to waste my time looking at the ATR site this morning

     
  23. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Monday Sept 7th   
    I dont get BOG with most firms unless my lad puts it on his account but as he's at work these are the best prices I'll get, regardless whether I wait till 10am or whatever time BOG kicks in.
    Giacomo 30.95 @ 4.33
    El Astronaute 22.35 @ 6
    Dhabyah 46.70 @ 2.87
    100pts staked
    1 winner returns 134pts ish
     
  24. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - Monday Sept 7th   
    I dont get BOG with most firms unless my lad puts it on his account but as he's at work these are the best prices I'll get, regardless whether I wait till 10am or whatever time BOG kicks in.
    Giacomo 30.95 @ 4.33
    El Astronaute 22.35 @ 6
    Dhabyah 46.70 @ 2.87
    100pts staked
    1 winner returns 134pts ish
     
  25. Thanks
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Sunday Sept 6th   
    1.10 Font COURTANBOULD 44 @ 3.00
    2.45 Font ORCHESTRAL RAIN 56 @ 2.37
    Staked 100
    Returned 132
    Profit 32
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