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Valiant Thor

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Reputation Activity

  1. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from justice in Racing Chat - Saturday 7th November   
    4 races worth rating @ Donny


    12.55
    Revich 7pts ew @ 17
    Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
    1.30
    No bets
    2.05
    Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
    Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
    3.15
    Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
    Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
    100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
    1 winner profit
    3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )
  2. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 7th November   
    4 races worth rating @ Donny


    12.55
    Revich 7pts ew @ 17
    Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
    1.30
    No bets
    2.05
    Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
    Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
    3.15
    Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
    Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
    100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
    1 winner profit
    3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )
  3. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Sunday 1st November   
    I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge.
    Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place.
    At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected
    Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices.
    But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets.
    Then again it could all go belly up but no risk no reward.
    100pts staked Skybet

  4. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October   
    IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
    So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
    4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
    20pts staked
    Update
    Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
  5. Thanks
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from BBBC in Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October   
    IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
    So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
    4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
    20pts staked
    Update
    Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
  6. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October   
    IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
    So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
    4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
    20pts staked
    Update
    Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
  7. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October   
    IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
    So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
    4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
    20pts staked
    Update
    Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
  8. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Friday 30th Oct   
    We compare ratings .. so heres mine for you (its a no bet race for me)

    Using RPR TR I get

    Hope D o C doesn't get mugged like your last couple
    G'Luck
    D o C a NR now
  9. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 31st October   
    IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
    So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
    4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
    20pts staked
    Update
    Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
  10. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Results


    Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
    Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
    My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
    I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown )
    ATB
    VT
  11. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Zico10 in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Results


    Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
    Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
    My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
    I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown )
    ATB
    VT
  12. Thanks
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Results


    Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
    Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
    My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
    I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown )
    ATB
    VT
  13. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Results


    Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
    Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
    My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
    I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown )
    ATB
    VT
  14. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from The Equaliser in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
    As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
    Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
    Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
    Here are all today's qualifiers

    Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
    Therefore....
    At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark
  15. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
    As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
    Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
    Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
    Here are all today's qualifiers

    Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
    Therefore....
    At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark
  16. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from yossa6133 in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
    As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
    Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
    Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
    Here are all today's qualifiers

    Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
    Therefore....
    At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark
  17. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
    As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
    Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
    Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
    Here are all today's qualifiers

    Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
    Therefore....
    At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark
  18. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Zico10 in Racing Chat - 29th October   
    Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
    As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
    Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
    Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
    Here are all today's qualifiers

    Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
    Therefore....
    At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark
  19. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Wednesday 28th October   
    Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch
    6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
    Out of the 4 from Kempton  Lady Pendragon  ew is the best option in the lucky last
    But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.
  20. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Wednesday 28th October   
    Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch
    6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
    Out of the 4 from Kempton  Lady Pendragon  ew is the best option in the lucky last
    But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.
  21. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Wednesday 28th October   
    Picked a couple of strange races there Richard
    If I was playing the Nott'm race I  would be dutching my 2 selections for the win
    Bit of a difference of opinion in the Kemp race Id be taking Illies Memories ew @ 6/1
    ATM No bet for me in either race .
    G'Luck with your selections
  22. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from Wildgarden in Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th October   
    Thanks to Cross Fire a NR  28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose)
    Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run
  23. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from vikki37 in Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th October   
    Thanks to Cross Fire a NR  28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose)
    Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run
  24. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th October   
    Thanks to Cross Fire a NR  28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose)
    Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run
  25. Like
    Valiant Thor got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th October   
    Unlucky there Richard
    As soon as Spectator pulled alongside I thought game over fo GS

    Spectator wins @ 22/1
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