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Valiant Thor

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Everything posted by Valiant Thor

  1. Might as well stick these up as Ive rated them (have you rated any of these races Richard?) As Ive made the effort to rate them seems a waste not to back them 14 * 1pt ew doubles @ sp 28pts staked on the yellow highlighted extra place races
  2. Im not interested how a horse ran in the past or who it beat and didnt beat, Im only interested in how it will run on average against the others today The "value" as you put it is not based on the books price per say , Its based on the numerical differences in the ratings (Z-score) so the more accurate the ratings the more accurate the price , as long as every horse is rateable then the z-score (std dev, mean ,blah blah blah etc etc) tells you how they should fare on average against one another in that race that then changed from a %age to odds gives an indication of how the different horses
  3. Yes ,I'll be rating it. Wont be till Sat though as ground on the day is taken into consideration and at this time of year it can turn in the blink of an eye so nearer the race the better plus ratings alter with withdrawals etc etc
  4. This is one of the races Ive done as well I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not). I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark. Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place. GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of t
  5. WEEK 7 Roundup 8 form 14 (57%) again for selections this week Some great games to watch but unfortunately the NAP & NB bets had a blowout,though the SAINTS did manage to win their game ( Cowboys..dear oh dear..how bad) All selections still in profit Selected bets clinging on to profit NAPS go into the red NB Still in profit ATB VT
  6. Jollys Cracked it came 5th (En Meme Temps 6th) EW Doubles 24pts staked 76.04 returned 52.04pts profit (233.5% ROI)
  7. I havent backed PoP Still got the doubles running
  8. Point of Principle moves up to 3rd now Caius a NR after race re-rated
  9. Ive put in the odds I got from sky as the previous were best odds available at assorted books Thats part 1 sorted (Imperial Presence party pooper ) CAIUS MARCIUS a NR now so get a ew single on NUTS WELL and the other 2 placed horses. 1 of the last 2 come in as well ( greed is good )
  10. When our rating matched on the flat the selections combined weren't a million miles out I dont bother with twig hopping that much but Ive done these 2 races as a comparison Seems we both have OLDGRANGEWOOD & CAIUS MARCIUS possible ew double ?????? I put Fizzy Feet as my nap of the day in the comp not because its my best bet of the day, but just I couldn't be bothered looking through the card Now Ive rated the above might as well do cross card 1pt ew doubles 5 places skybet seeing as Ive made the effort cross card EW doubles 24pts staked skybet
  11. All selections are computer generated from a basic program I wrote years ago that does it all automatically, all I do is post the selections. No injuries / suspensions etc are taken into account just number crunching. I personally just dutch bet the NAP & NB every week and any profit (if any) I make at the end of season lump 50% of it on the prediction for the super bowl Last season ended with 2.38pts profit on the season (14% ROI) That gave 1.19pts going on the Chiefs -1.5 @ 1.9 which returned 2.26pts Giving the total of 3.45pts profit on the season ( 20% ROI) G'Luck whate
  12. WEEK 7 SELECTIONS NAP & NB selections only again this week G'Luck whatever you back
  13. Ah BOG......... a distant memory There's more than 1 way to skin a cat, If the average of the other books is greater than your extra place race price (which they usually are), take sp instead of the price then you'll get the better price not quite BOG but usually better than the price they offer pre race on the extra place races.
  14. 8 from 14 this week (57%) Ravens spoil the party with the NAP bet losing The NB keeps giving Still in profit all round that's what counts
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