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Valiant Thor

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Everything posted by Valiant Thor

  1. I came to a similar conclusion but using paired comparisons linear algebra (remember simultaneous equations at school) rather than collinearity from 7 races which I'm not a lover of to say the least. If you can find it out there in the ether somewhere, read the 37 Circles of Hell this will change your mind about the way you look at trend analysis.
  2. @ 9/2 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money
  3. Dont think I'll be playing in this race , there's only about 5 horses from the 16 that shouldn't win it whatever happens,( but its racing so you never know )
  4. Staked 100pts Returned 157.36pts (11.24pts @ 10/1 as some odds had changed between posting and placing bets)
  5. 4 races worth rating @ Donny 12.55 Revich 7pts ew @ 17 Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12 1.30 No bets 2.05 Chamade 12pts ew @ 10 Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12 3.15 Torcello 7pts ew @ 17 Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29 100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG 1 winner profit 3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )
  6. WEEK 8 UPDATE (The less said the better ) Only 5 winners from the total selections 35.7% The NAP , NB & a selected bet all missed the spread Selected bets & Naps in the red While all selections & NB cling on to a profit .
  7. Out of all the 5 runners Lord Sparky was the one I most expected to at least place Bad day at the office with a loss of 30.74pts
  8. I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge. Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place. At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices. But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets. Then a
  9. Byron Flyer just missed out on the 4 places paid as did Mister Malarkey on the 5 places paid Valtor seemed to make a bad landing 3 or 4 out dropping away quickly after that With Teqany a NR I got an ew single on Regal Encore which virtually returns my stake on the races so no harm done .
  10. WEEK 8 ( sorry its late 1 game played but it wasnt a bet so no harm done )
  11. IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky 4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well 20pts staked Update Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
  12. We compare ratings .. so heres mine for you (its a no bet race for me) Using RPR TR I get Hope D o C doesn't get mugged like your last couple G'Luck D o C a NR now
  13. Results Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly. Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue . My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigatin
  14. Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?. As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house. Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thoug
  15. mugged again Illes Memories missed the break so there was no danger there, winner wasnt even on he radar
  16. 6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott That didn't go according to plan 5pts ew Lady Pendragon 8/1 in the last @ Kemp
  17. Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch 6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott Out of the 4 from Kempton Lady Pendragon ew is the best option in the lucky last But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.
  18. Picked a couple of strange races there Richard If I was playing the Nott'm race I would be dutching my 2 selections for the win Bit of a difference of opinion in the Kemp race Id be taking Illies Memories ew @ 6/1 ATM No bet for me in either race . G'Luck with your selections
  19. Thanks to Cross Fire a NR 28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose) Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run
  20. If GS hadn't have been a green rated (downgraded to orange now ) I would have backed Spectator but thats life , swings and roundabouts. Be nice if a few of my others pop in to make up for it
  21. Unlucky there Richard As soon as Spectator pulled alongside I thought game over fo GS Spectator wins @ 22/1
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