Valiant Thor
-
Posts
4,023 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
15
Posts posted by Valiant Thor
-
-
36 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
.great trends horse
I dont do trends road to the poor house,
Trends
OR 139>148............... Coole Cody 137
Age 7yo .......................Coole Cody 9
Or do these not count because they dont fit
Ill say it a million times trends are for fools as you are focusing on a very small group with little or no statistical significance. -
On 11/10/2020 at 4:53 PM, Valiant Thor said:
Dont think I'll be playing in this race , there's only about 5 horses from the 16 that shouldn't win it whatever happens,( but its racing so you never know )
Never in doubt
- beaker1, Villa Chris, Trotter and 1 other
-
4
-
Not neglecting this thread.
A couple of weeks ago I changed the code to only get the spreads from uk books (see week 5), I also decided to upgrade the code from python 2 to 3 whilst I was at it and seem to have messed up somewhere along the line (not a pro coder, Im self taught)
Been on it on and off for past 2 week and think I should have selections back up and running next week
Rule to self if its not broke dont mess with it
-
No bet due to my top rated being an odds on fav making it a virtual 2 place race as only 3 places being paid -
11 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Nothing ventured as they say , Ill use profit from last race
41.68pts staked for 41.68% profit if 1 wins
Protectorate 24.81pts @ 2.38 Sky
Southfield Stone 16.87pts @ 3.5 Sky
staked 41.68
Returned 59.05
profit 17.37 (41.67%)
-
Nothing ventured as they say , Ill use profit from last race
41.68pts staked for 41.68% profit if 1 wins
Protectorate 24.81pts @ 2.38 Sky
Southfield Stone 16.87pts @ 3.5 Sky -
15 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
Still @ start when posting
All dutched ew 1 placed money back if 1 places
100 pts staked
141.68 returned
41.68 profit
- vikki37 and Villa Chris
-
2
-
Still @ start when posting
All dutched ew 1 placed money back if 1 places
-
9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-
There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.
There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.
There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won.
This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.
I came to a similar conclusion but using paired comparisons linear algebra (remember simultaneous equations at school) rather than collinearity from 7 races which I'm not a lover of to say the least.
If you can find it out there in the ether somewhere, read the 37 Circles of Hell this will change your mind about the way you look at trend analysis.
-
7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Simply The Betts is the class act but could get pegged back carrying top weight.
@ 9/2 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money
-
Dont think I'll be playing in this race , there's only about 5 horses from the 16 that shouldn't win it whatever happens,( but its racing so you never know )
-
4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
4 races worth rating @ Donny
12.55
Revich 7pts ew @ 17
Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
1.30
No bets
2.05
Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
3.15
Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
1 winner profit
3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )
Staked 100pts
Returned 157.36pts (11.24pts @ 10/1 as some odds had changed between posting and placing bets)
-
4 races worth rating @ Donny
12.55
Revich 7pts ew @ 17
Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
1.30
No bets
2.05
Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
3.15
Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
1 winner profit
3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )- richard-westwood, justice and vikki37
-
3
-
WEEK 8 UPDATE (The less said the better
)
Only 5 winners from the total selections 35.7%
The NAP , NB & a selected bet all missed the spread
Selected bets & Naps in the red
While all selections & NB cling on to a profit .
-
5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge.
Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place.
At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected
Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices.
But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets.
Then again it could all go belly up but no risk no reward.
100pts staked Skybet
Out of all the 5 runners Lord Sparky was the one I most expected to at least place![:\](https://forum.punterslounge.com/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
Bad day at the office with a loss of 30.74pts
-
I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge.
Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place.
At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected
Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices.
But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets.
Then again it could all go belly up but no risk no reward.
100pts staked Skybet
-
20 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
Byron Flyer just missed out on the 4 places paid as did Mister Malarkey on the 5 places paid
Valtor seemed to make a bad landing 3 or 4 out dropping away quickly after that
With Teqany a NR I got an ew single on Regal Encore which virtually returns my stake on the races so no harm done .
-
WEEK 8 ( sorry its late 1 game played but it wasnt a bet so no harm done )
-
IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
-
9 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
We compare ratings .. so heres mine for you (its a no bet race for me)
Using RPR TR I get
Hope D o C doesn't get mugged like your last couple
G'Luck
D o C a NR now
-
12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
255 newm
Duke of kondicote 277
Mutamaded 274
Speed company 272
Close race .....Duke of kondicote has some strong form coming into this but mutamaded ran a stinker on all weather last time ...a return to turf should very much suit and looks way overpriced at 33/1 ...top 2 for me
Duke of kondicote 10pt win 3/1 bet365
Mutamaded 5pt ew 33/1 betvic
We compare ratings .. so heres mine for you (its a no bet race for me)
Using RPR TR I get
Hope D o C doesn't get mugged like your last couple
G'Luck
D o C a NR now
-
7 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
Here are all today's qualifiers
Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners) 4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable markResults
Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown )
ATB
VT
-
6.30 Chelm RESPONSE EXACT @ 4/1 B365
-
Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
Here are all today's qualifiers
Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners) 4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark- Wildgarden, Zico10, vikki37 and 2 others
-
5
Paddy Power Gold Cup
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
yep , slipped and pecked @ first fence in home straight , good sit by jock and good recovery by Coole Cody, personally thought that was game over but obviously not