Valiant Thor
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Posts posted by Valiant Thor
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33 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
Just had a quick look. Are they not just showing the odds without the divisor, e.g. 6/1 as 6 rather than the decimal odds of 7? (I saw one summary that heralded a particular horse at 6/1 as a "highlight" and showed it as 6 in the results). So a loser is shown as returning -1 (or 2 where appropriate) and a 6/1 winner is showing +6. So on that basis the results are correct but the price is expressed in an unusual way.
I have no skin in the game (or insight) as to whether he's shaman or charlatan but I'm not convinced the results are actually wrong.
What does it say @ the top of the table , If I see decimal advised odds that is what they are advised at.( Sort of a giveaway is it not)
Or could it be Stake minus 1 etc etc etc , if you want to go down that route ?
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3 hours ago, Pirate53 said:
Which is what I said. The 9/1 was shown as 9 not 10 (I checked this particular price before I posted, though must admit I didn't check every one) Hence when it won it was shown as 9pts won. This is what happened, but the error was not showing the decimal price as 10. He did indeed tip it at 9/1 and it won 9pts. It therefore is the table that is incorrect as I said, not HT's fault. As you can see I'm perfectly able to 'Do the maths'.
The lack of availability of prices as the Caan Berry vid is a different kettle of fish, which I completely agree with and was not my point at all.
Just where is this mythical 9/1 as all the odds in the table are decimal.
So if you can do the math as you say why is the Monthly profit 17pts when it should be 1pt
as posted on the table . (note the word profit not return)
Do the math
Or is that just an error .
Seems this error Has been going on since the tables were put up, cant have Sir Hugh looking like the usual crap tipster can we .
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On 11/18/2022 at 12:13 PM, Pirate53 said:
Not sure what point the OP or VT are making. In the table the odds are advised as a decimal version of the original fractional odds. Not decimal odds as we know.
For example 9/1 is shown as 9 with 9 returned, not 10 with 9 returned. The fault is with ATR for a crap table, not HT.
I follow several tipsters and the prices always bomb. Wait til the off and most rebound.
The point is the stake is added to the winnings then the total winnings are classed as that.
decimal odds 6 wins is 6 returned not 6 profit which is included at the end of the month profit.
The actual profit for that month was 1 pt not 17 as stated .
Go through all the other months exactly the same , conning the stupid
Do the maths
- MCLARKE and Nigwilliam
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A bit of due diligence should be taken before following
Shystersmy bad 'tipsters' I meant.
They fluff up there records (no surprise there then) thats if they even bother to update them (how difficult can that be 'cough cough')Ive highlighted what no one seems to have noticed about Sir Hugh's results (more fluffing than on a gangbang porno)
He claims 17 points in Feb 2021 Hmmmmmm
Answers on a postcard to Alltipstersareshysters.com
NB
The pic above is just a sample of Feb 2021 results the full results for feb are HERE -
Harrys Hero 8.18pts @ 3.25
Exquisitely 11.82pts @ 2.25
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Friday
Divine Libra 7.91pts @ 2.75
Pocket the Packet 12.09pts @ 1.8
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7 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
Paramamount 12pts win
Cornicello 8pts win
20pts staked 30pts returned 50% yield
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Paramamount 12pts win
Cornicello 8pts win
- The Equaliser and MCLARKE
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6 minutes ago, harry_rag said:
I use Libre Office. Not sure where that sits on the bloatiness spectrum but I can recommend it as someone who started out using Excel at work and wanted a free option at home.
Libre Office is the better of the 2
I am an engineer only use what you need
If I was using either Id put them on a pen drive and use when needed keep the free space on my puter.
Your talking to someone with a modified 2 terabyte 4k firestick (no buffering and need for a cache cleaner for me)
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2 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:
Can i add a recomendation here, hope you dont mind, I use the free "open office from apache" its similar to ms office and it opens word and excel files too. does the job just as well as MS Office for non of the cost in my opinion.
I mentioned wps spreadsheet purely as its less bloated software and I dont know how much space he has on his device.
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37 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:
I’ll have to look into that then because although I enjoy the notepad , it can become tiresome .
Bit of advice, you can take it or leave it,
Learn how to use excel first rather than programming (python is usually the preferred language)
Only learn what you need (there's no point filling your head how to do stuff you wont use,if you need certain formulas later learn them then )
DON'T BUY Excel for Dummies, Excel in 24 hrs , Beginners guides to Excel etc etc ,
Get an Excel for Kids book ( pref 10-12 age group) you'll learn most of what you need a lot quicker ( the basics)
Try WPS OFFICE SPREADSHEET if you dont have excel (looks and works similar to excel, not as good but a good enough starting point)
Its worth the effort
G'Luck
VT
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2 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
I’m not clued up with computers. Would be nice to be able to have it done for me though. Can you set it up to rate races how you rate them?
Whatever calculations you can do with a pen & paper you can do with a computer a lot quicker
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21 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Wise Words
There is a lot of well-conducted research showing that flexible thinkers make better predictions than rigid thinkers. It started with academic Philip Tetlock’s study between 1984 and 2005 into expert political and economic judgements. He found that experts with dogmatic beliefs made worse predictions than experts without dogmatic beliefs.
Isn't that a tad contradictory as he must have used rigid diagnostics (dogmatic beliefs) to come up with his conclusion therefore making his own predictions less accurate.
More bullshit for the masses
- MCLARKE and alexcaruso808
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8 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:Couple I think are overpriced today
@ sky bet both 4 places
£10 ew Double
Lennys spirit 5th @ 16/1
Peachy Carneham 4th
Close but no cigar
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Couple I think are overpriced today
@ sky bet both 4 places
£10 ew Double
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Had it priced up last night as a 5/1 shot and backed it at @ 10/1
win or lose a nice bit of value ( now 9/2 2nd fav
so I wasn't too far out ) dont need many to come in like that to make a profit 
- yossa6133, black rabbit, MCLARKE and 1 other
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9 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
No.
I am purely looking at odds on shots and seeing if I can make a profit by backing them at early prices on BET365.
I am only using the forecast odds as a short cut to find selections, other than that the forecast odds play no part in this exercise.
So basically a random selection (Darwin eat your heart out)
Then I'd be surprised if you make a profit
Ps
If its any consolation I dont think Darwins ideas stand up to much either ?
ATB
VT
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10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
But does it create an edge for those who do back odds on ?
Of course it does if your maths are better than the crowds
From what I can see your looking @ forecast odds on selections and then trying to find the value rather than pricing up the days races & finding your odds on shots (if any) then looking for any value opportunities in the markets.
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5 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Some people would not back the 10/11 shot, even if it had a positive edge.
Thats there problem
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I dont see what the problem with backing odds on or longshots +ev is the same whatever you decide
Say X =1000 over time
You bet X amount on odds on @ expected odds and end up 1040 your 4%+ev
You Bet X amount on 10/1 shots @ expected odds and end up 1040 your 4% +ev
Spend more time accurately pricing up a race rather than trying to let the forecast do it for you as all the forecast is is WOM - bookies vig
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19 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
So why would you not back the 10/11 shot ?
you asked what was the difference between 10/11 and 1/1
which I took to be the edge between the 2
on book prices would be .052 %
But you swap between book then betfair so you'd most probable get 11/10ish on BF so around 10%
19 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:You could have a 15% edge on a 10/11 shot and a 5% edge on a 1/1 shot.
I find it more informative if you start with the full question rather than adding on bits as you go.
To answer the Q
You should back both if you have any sense as they are +EV
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1 hour ago, Bang on said:
What owner would want to pay all of the bills and then see his/her horse win... in someone elses colours ?
HORSE PRIZE LAST 3 RACES PRIZE MONEY SYSTEM 25.7K > 15K 11K 8K YAASER 25.7K > 4K 3K 4K ZABBIE 13.3K > 4K 4K 5K JUAN LES PINS 25.7K > 8K 3K 5K MATTICE 27K > 8K 6K 8K SCAMPI 25.7K > 4K 10K 6K PLEDGE OF HONOUR 27K > 4K 3K 4K I have no idea ? ?? SIGH
Hugh cannot be serious!! Can He?
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
"Well it doesn't say "decimal" odds!" .............Pedantic eh
Try reading about Occums Razor
Your explanation fits
So does Stake minus 1 (so why would this not be correct)
So do several other math equations you could concoct
No other site I have known or do know does it either way like that .