RussP

Cheers Phil, much appreciated. Firstly, looking for a weak favourite is my starting point. If I can't get the fav beat, I leave the race alone. Beyond that, I'm looking for the usual stuff but start with handicap mark and class. Then I delve into recent form & look for excuses for poor(ish) form; I say poorish because, at the prices, it's more than likely there's been some poor recent form. I consider things like trip, trainer/jockey form, ground and draw. Another angle is also the shape of the race (ie. pace & whether front runners will be suited) and type of course (ie. form on stiff or easy tracks). RPR are usually a decent benchmark too. I'd say the main principles I stick to are around class and mark. I'm sure people don't realise how much difference a 2lb swing in mark can make. It's massive and there are winners to be found by focusing on that. Horses at the top of the handicap generally do better than people think; that's because many have been in poor form but are now dropping in class and dropping in mark. That's a double positive if you can find valid reasons for average form. The other thing to then look at in previous statistics; for example, do they have a class ceiling? Value & price is probably my last consideration which some may find odd. I'm looking for the winner, end of, irrespective of price. That said, if the price is too short (ie. 5/1 or shorter), I'd leave it alone. It's more a gut feel. I feel I can hit a 15%+ strike rate of winners and 35%/40% of placed runners so provided I average 7/1, I'll remain in profit. Whether Mon Brav was 12's, 10's or even 9's, I'd likely still have been on. I'm not a big fan of 3yo handicaps as they have all sorts of unexposed types and I'm crap with guesswork. Facts are my game which is why I focus on all age handicaps. So, whilst I agree with those progessing from maidens to handicaps, I'll leave that to the more expert eye. Regarding Donny Rover, headgear was one of the last things I considered. All the other factors (mark, class, form) pointed to a big run; headgear was looked at last and I agree that it might make the difference too. Appreciate your kind words, I certainly need a winner after a terrible weekend undoing much of last week's good stuff. Have a good Royal Ascot mate, I'll likely be sticking to the smaller meetings.

Cheers Phil, much appreciated. Firstly, looking for a weak favourite is my starting point. If I can't get the fav beat, I leave the race alone. Beyond that, I'm looking for the usual stuff but start with handicap mark and class. Then I delve into recent form & look for excuses for poor(ish) form; I say poorish because, at the prices, it's more than likely there's been some poor recent form. I consider things like trip, trainer/jockey form, ground and draw. Another angle is also the shape of the race (ie. pace & whether front runners will be suited) and type of course (ie. form on stiff or easy tracks). RPR are usually a decent benchmark too. I'd say the main principles I stick to are around class and mark. I'm sure people don't realise how much difference a 2lb swing in mark can make. It's massive and there are winners to be found by focusing on that. Horses at the top of the handicap generally do better than people think; that's because many have been in poor form but are now dropping in class and dropping in mark. That's a double positive if you can find valid reasons for average form. The other thing to then look at in previous statistics; for example, do they have a class ceiling? Value & price is probably my last consideration which some may find odd. I'm looking for the winner, end of, irrespective of price. That said, if the price is too short (ie. 5/1 or shorter), I'd leave it alone. It's more a gut feel. I feel I can hit a 15%+ strike rate of winners and 35%/40% of placed runners so provided I average 7/1, I'll remain in profit. Whether Mon Brav was 12's, 10's or even 9's, I'd likely still have been on. I'm not a big fan of 3yo handicaps as they have all sorts of unexposed types and I'm crap with guesswork. Facts are my game which is why I focus on all age handicaps. So, whilst I agree with those progessing from maidens to handicaps, I'll leave that to the more expert eye. Regarding Donny Rover, headgear was one of the last things I considered. All the other factors (mark, class, form) pointed to a big run; headgear was looked at last and I agree that it might make the difference too. Appreciate your kind words, I certainly need a winner after a terrible weekend undoing much of last week's good stuff. Have a good Royal Ascot mate, I'll likely be sticking to the smaller meetings.

4.50 Doncaster There's now a non runner leaving us with 11 to sort through for this Class 4, 1m handicap. First thing to look for is a weak favourite and I think we've got one here in top weight Derulo. As with the 2nd fav Thornaby Nash, both animals have been raised in mark without winning lto. That's enough for me to bypass. Teds Brother (8/1 William Hill) - I backed this one last week when it was taken out at Newcastle but most things still stand. Is steadily coming down the weights and is now racing off 66, a mark lower than his last 3 wins. Goes well at this track with 2 wins from 6 starts. I worry a little over the class ceiling in that its never won in a Class 4 but this is a poor event for the grade as only 1 horse (rated 77) stops this being a Class 5 anyway. Has never won first time up or over any distance other than 7f or 1m. Won off 72 last season but anything above that has proved troublesome. Off just 66 today. This season, he needed his reappearance as always and then has recorded 2 decent efforts. The first, when 4th of 7 off 2lb lower, was a good run considering he was very keen early doors and didn't get a clear run at a crucial point. Then he was 7th of 15 off the same mark, running much better than finishing position suggests as he was drawn badly and race wasn't run to suit (held up when prominent types held sway). nterestingly, that run when 7th has turned out fantastically; the horses that finished 2nd, 3rd, 5th have run 4 times since between them and won them all. The one finishing 14th also won its only race since and only 2 others have run again (the 8th and 9th), and finished 4th and 2nd. So the form of that race is 7 runs since, 5 wins, a 2nd and a 4th!!! Both of those runs were in this grade. Will absolutely love the ground that has now turned soft and the firm ground was apparently the reason for its withdrawal. Has so much in his favour and should go well with a proper jockey now on top.