Polefka

Week 2 is already over for me, i close the book for the week and i only take one bet this week and i think it was a smart decision as the tournaments went really strange, also AO qualies were really tough although i didn't follow that closely as i was too busy with my job including a two day travel to London till yesterday.
WEEK 2
WON: 1
VOID: 0
LOST: 0
STAKED: 4
BACK: 7.42
BALANCE: +3.42
YIELD: 85.5%
 
Overall
WON: 18
VOID: 0
LOST: 21
STAKED: 135
BACK: 162.3
BALANCE: +27.3
YIELD: 20%
 
Good luck everyone for the last three days of the week and keep up the good work in here guys.
Next week we'll have a big big amount of work to do ...i am already taking my first bets, i hope we have a good discussion over in the Open topic.

ATP Doha
Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.26 Pinnacle 3/10
Both Wawrinka and Bautista played very well in their opening matches, winning comfortably without losing a set. Obviously Wawrinka had the tougher opponents with Khachanov and Jarry but i think this is a different matchup these days. Wawrinka is playing better and better after his knee injury and apparently he is in good shape but after watching his first two matches i think he is still a bit rusty in terms of movement. He isn't moving that well to be honest, and i think Bautista is a tough matchup if you have some issues with moving around the court as the Spaniard knows how to let his opponents run around and using & creating angles with his groundstrokes. I personally think RBA is massively underrated on the circuit but he dropped out of Top 20 last year so maybe he is also declining but he looked better at the end of the season and he is always starting strong into the new season. He looks in great shape and i have still some concerns about Wawrinka and matchups where he has to move a lot. Both Khachanov and Jarry are static ballbasher, those guys aren't moving a lot and their strokes are predictable too so i think today we'll see the real level of Wawrinka. I think Bautista should be prized even around 1.9 at least but maybe he is even the favorite here. Odds >2.2 are good enough to try.

OK Minnesota won 5-2

Thanks for the mention @StevieDay1983 and agreed on Boro, they have been reliable for me this season.
 
Glad my definite picks all came through last week.
 
 
Middlesbrough - West Ham
 
Aitor Karanka has instilled some impressive defensive discipline in his side with 40% of their home games ending in a clean sheet as well and 60% U2.5.
 
Based off what I have seen of Boro, they can defend well and also have problems scoring. Negredo's goals this season have been quite lucky, Traore has no final product and I see their main threat as Ramirez.
 
West Ham are in a transitioning phase and have had some difficult away fixtures in the past 6, with the exception of Swansea.
 
The previous fixture between these 2 ended in 1-1.
 
I personally will go with U2.5 @ 1.615.
 
 
 
Crystal Palace - Everton
@mindfulness , I agree with everything you said and you definitely know Palace more than I do.
Everton have had some dodgy away form recently but their battering of City at home speaks volumes of their suitability to the 3-4-2-1 formation.
I reckon if implemented, they can shut out Palace's attack. Benteke scored two goals in the FA Cup but I can't see him penetrating the Everton defence.
 
Palace lost to the Hammers (ha) last weekend and I anticipated a much closer scoreline but the game was not a complete hammering. Without Zaha, I don't see them being very effective going forward. Perhaps it's a leadership issue too?
 
Everton win @ 2.375 has value, in my opinion
 
O2.5 @ 2.05 is also a tasty price and I think this is due to their H2H games generally falling U2.5. I personally view form > H2H, any day of the week. 60% on average O2.5 for both teams. It's risky though. It comes down to Palace scoring.
 
Perhaps wait to see projected line-ups/formations; Palace played Bolton mid-week and rested a few key players but still had to come out and come back for a victory.
 
 
 
Stoke - Manchester United
 
I see United coming out for blood in this game after their abysmal performance at home (looking at you Pogba) vs Liverpool.
 
Stoke stole a point off them in the previous fixture with Joe Allen's 82nd minute equalizer and I can see the egos in the team coming together.
 
Mourinho will also have them fired up as every game now has turned into a must-win.
 
Strangely, both these sides perform better away from home.
 
United, undefeated in 12.
 
Stoke on the other hand have won their last two vs WAT and SUN but I can't see anything past a United win here and to be honest, my rationale is based mainly off United's ability instead of anything else.
 
United win @ 1.615
 
 
 
Manchester City - Spurs
 
Spurs are arguably the most in-form team in the EPL right now and it's fitting that they play City this weekend.
 
The previous fixture between these two saw Spurs absolutely dominate. I remember watching the game and not believing how well they managed to close out City. Poch is a great tactician but we shall see this weekend whether Pep will respond in kind.
 
City on the back of a 4-0 drubbing to Everton will come out with a point to prove. Nonetheless, they seem to be lacking that cohesiveness as a team and the cutting edge they used to have.
 
Spurs missing Vertonghen but I can see Aldeweireld commanding the defence well with the inclusion of Wimmer most likely. I expect a big game from Eriksen, Walker and Kane.
 
Otamendi and Stones are the definition of liability. Fernandinho, Kompany, Gundogan are a sore loss. Fernando is 50/50 as he took a knock. 
X2 @ 1.70 is a ridiculous price for me. I would back Spurs to get at least a draw.
 
Spurs win @ 3.70 is also decent -1EH @ 8.00 from my bookie is also not a bad price at all (as per @andrewcalo's suggestion)
 
Spurs win 0-2 @ 17.00 will get a small punt from me.
 
To be honest though, the bookies set the prices for a reason but I feel they have got this one wrong. Any further insight would be appreciated! I am full on the Spurs bandwagon for now.
 
 
 
Southampton – Leicester
 
I will continue to bet against Soton, despite Leicester’s abysmal form away from home.
 
This game has U2.5 written all over it as well as draw.
 
It will probably be a 0-0 or 1-1.
 
Going with the unders on this one as Mahrez, Slimani gone to AFCON and Ulloa pending a fitness test for LEI and Soton also missing Boufal due to knee injury.
 
U2.5 @ 1.65
 
X @ 3.50
 
Correct score of 0-0 @ 7.50
 
 
Chelsea – Hull
 
I can’t see past Chelsea on this one, they remain quality. I won’t bother with a write up but rather I am eyeing out only one bet and hopefully Snodgrass doesn’t ruin it!
 
Not much value in any other markets in my opinion.
 
Chelsea win to nil @ 1.70
 
 
 
WBA – Sunderland
 
Sunderland have a problem scoring goals and quite a few of them have been penalties.
 
I read somewhere that WBA have given away only 1 pen this season? I might be wrong.
 
Nonetheless, WBA at home are decent and I can’t look past them either.
 
That being said does anyone know whether Brunt, Evans or Nyom are back this weekend?
 
U2.5 @ 1.80 for me
 
Good luck fellas, I am open to anything I missed or any criticism.
I might not play all of these but these are the ones that stand out to me currently.
As mentioned earlier, the prices are a bit too correct.