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Rafa

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Posts posted by Rafa

    LAY 0 - 0 Football Strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: LAY 0 - 0 Football Strategy Re: laying a 3-3 or the like when its 0-0 at half-time, I'd have thought that you'd be laying in the region of €2,000 to win your €10 at that stage ..... thats not something I'd like to leave myself open to regardless of the probabilities of the same.

    LAY 0 - 0 Football Strategy

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: LAY 0 - 0 Football Strategy The "get-out" clause is crucial - here's my thoughts on it for what they're worth - I've looked at this myself a bit ..... Given that your loss when you get out is your origanal stake (equalised across all variables) & given that you expect that to occur at around half-time in games, do you know statistically how many games are still 0-0 at or approaching half-time? My thinking here is that you may be better off statistically waiting for say the 60 min mark for a goal to be scored if there's a disproportionate amount of goals scored in the first 15 mins after half-time compared with the drop in odds during the same period i.e. the risk of lettin the liability grow is outweighed by the goals scored in this period. I have some historic information on this & will see if I can dig it out. Re: laying each score as you go along I think this is good again providing you strictly use the get out loss equaliser. In this instance I'd say keep to the "halving of the odds" get out point. Also I wouldn't get greedy on this, given a 'general' average of slightly > 2 goals per game on average I'd be very slow to do this for any goals after a 2nd goes in & certainly not after a third goes in. Plus, you may need to wait for 2-3 mins after a goal goes in to let the market settle before laying the next goal - there will always be temporary distortion in place for a few mins after a goal goes in. Overall I think its a :ok, once you get your hands on the stats in question & once you have the discipline to get out at the appointed time (for part 2 I'd place the back bet as I place the lay bet to ensure I don't miss my get-out point). For what its worth I've seen the two sides of this - the undisciplined said where a guy wiped his bank out totally doing this & myself who's made a few quid here and there doing it. Good luck.

    Martingale Can it work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Martingale Can it work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So generally speaking, each losing bet triggered a 1 unit increase in your stake? I think some of the comments above are still valid - essentially you've taken a profitable system and increased its overall profit gain by increasing your stake i.e. a system of ratchet staking. It wouldn't have turned a losing system into a winning one but it did turn a winning one into a more profitable one than by using fixed stakes. Given the strike rates you got you've done really well.

    Martingale Can it work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Martingale Can it work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have looked at Martingale for the >2.5 goals market in the football. Starting with a bank of 1,000 units & starting betting/backing >2.5 goals at 5 units (odds >=2.0). I've never hit the loosing sequence (of 8) required to wreck my bank but I do realise that it is certainly possibly/probable at some stage. There is only a 0.5% increase of bank for each winning bet. Obviously if you are in game 4/5 of a loosing streak your bet to increase your bank by 0.5% is only returning around 3-4% of stake. I used it to increase my bank by 100 units. Nothing more. Is it suicide betting? possibly - to a novice punter? definitely. You'll find that you get no real satisfaction from these Martingale type punts; its bigger stress & bigger risk for smaller gains.

    Drip Mk2

    in Glory Hunters

    Posted

    Re: Drip Mk2 I've have tried this system myself and it does work to a point, so far you really are excelling at it; as I see it there's 2 problems with it; 1. Your loosing bets are always at your highest level (as they are working on a % of your bank) & 2. You can end up focusing on what bet level will get you to the next "target" rather than what bet is right. Overall though I think it is a good system discipline wise if you can stick with it. I know someone that turned the £1k initial bank into the £37k; infact he went beyond it to nearly £50k before he cashed out, so the very best of luck :ok

    Backing to Place

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Backing to Place Thanks Slapdash. Am behind a firewall in my office and it stops access to the likes of Betfair. I've asked in PL does anyone know a way around it but at the moment it doesn't seem like it. I know I can use the phone betting but my bank needs a bit of beefing up before I can back numerous horses a day at £50 a pop. Its like everything if you could get a few winning days together at the start you'd be fine but if you hit a loosing streak at the start thats your bank screwed (usually just as the purple patch comes).

    Backing to Place

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Can anyone recommend the best bookie to back online for a place only bets (can't get access to exchanges so I'm limited to "regular" bookies)? I presently use Totesport but some of their payouts/odds are an f-ing joke. A SP of 12/1 place bet yesterday paid less than 1/7 of the odds. That is a common occurence. Thanks.

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