Rafa
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Posts posted by Rafa
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Re: Profitable Lay System Just one of those days Danny - I think it shows the real strength of your system that even after such a wallop you are still up for this month - thats amazing.
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Re: Profitable Lay System Shared Account came in at 6.2
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Re: Profitable Lay System Shared Account has just come in at 6.2 ...... back to earth with a bang today Danny - I knew I'd curse it -
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Re: Profitable Lay System I'm well due for a losing day soon, and thought Yenaled had me beat. The lay gods were shining!....temporarily? .... I think your prediction has fallen today Danny; Henry Hell at 15's on Betfair & Catch the Perk at 6.2 came in ......
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Re: One lay for Tuesday Do you have an ROI for the year to date with your system Don?
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Re: The Big 5 System Have you stopped posting P-Rockshark? If so, its a pity, I enjoyed this thread.
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Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Exceptional thread this by anyone's standards - well done. Just one quick question Slapdash ..... am I right in saying that you are looking for the edge in the early bookies' prices as against Betfairs prices which you are taking to be more "realtime" early on in the day? and thereby getting on horses that are tightening in in the market (possibly due to knowledge/good word on the day etc etc). Thanks in advance. Did I read somewhere that this is purely a system and you don't really follow the horses??
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Re: HT/FT betting,could it be profitable? I like the lay HT/FT of draw/draw in this market; usually about 5.0 for a game with a warm home favourite.
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Re: Tuesday Bankers Has anyone looked at an ROI/points return for the daily threads since its inception? it would appear to be well up.
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Re: The Big 5 System
Looks good - can you back test this from the start of the thread Traf - would be a more representative sample.Since this system was restarted 8 games ago, I have followed it myself, albeit with a smaller stake. However, I am dutching the stakes to guarantee an equal return from each scoreline, as the lower scores ie 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 seem to be more common results. PR has returned 978 from 800 staked: a profit of 178= 22.25% Dutching has returned 1006.13 from 800 staked: this increases the yield up to 25.77%. -
Re: Top Savings Over 2.5 Madness
Please don't put pressure on people to post; there has been excellent threads that have ended because people felt others may have been backing hugely on their selections.waiting the next tips ;) -
Re: PitMaster - Asian Handicap Strategy Great progress so far Pitmaster. Was just wondering bookie/exchange do you use? I've looked around a bit & can't find the asian markets for the selections?
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Re: "Place" Query Sorry, was rushing when I put that up!! 1/3 for that is of course correct not 1/2 as I noted. Anyway, I'm working on the basis of laying to place at 1/3 the outright win "back" odds & backing to place at 1/4 of the outright "win" odds to make it a tight review, any price values in additional to this will only increase the unit profit.
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Does anyone have an average/idea of what the "lay" price for a place is on Betfair compared to the outright win price? I know its tighter than the bookies 1/5 or 1/4 but I've noted 1/2 in some places which seems very odd i.e. outright win at 4.0; lay place at 2.0; I'm completing some back testing on a system and just want the odds to be a reasonable average. Thanks.
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Re: Bye-Bye Seeds: A Tennis System Looks very good. Like Mr.Intensitys its using the big odds deficits in tennis compared to the statistical results. I like this a lot.
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Re: chelsea, manu, liverpool Interesting, I'll keep an eye on this for sure.
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Re: Lay the Tipsters Hi Alun, I haven't completed any statistical work on this as I'm not a big horse racing punter but I did trial a simple system about 2 months ago where I layed all fav's daily to place (those less than 3/1). It was well in profit for my sample (only 4 weeks). Maybe there would be value in this also using your system?
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Re: The Big 5 System Personally I think there is nothing wrong with PR keeping his selection criteria to himself. He may have found a niche in the market that he is willing to share with us all, for that he is to be commended. That in itself is very fair. He posts well in advance of the games. So where is the issue?? If he spams re: a subscription service then delete his access - simple as that. If not and you don't like how he's completing his thread then don't come into the thread. Why come in just to pick holes in it? He's giving his selections in advance of games, keeping track of all losses aswell as winners so where's the big hassle? Keep on trucking PR as far as I'm concerned, if you want more detail before putting your own cash down and it doesn't come to your satisfaction then don't back the selections - surely thats the obvious thing to do rather than coming in, calling for info, then giving out stick because you don't get what you asked for. If I was him I wouldn't bother posting at this stage, the attitude of some in here (& I know I am only very new to this forum but am definitely not new to the betting scene) is questionable. I thought this was an open forum, maybe not it seems.
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Re: Lay the crappy New Manager markets Laying everyone below 3.0 has got to be a winner in the long run. I know someone that does this at the 2.0 market level but thats a bit too close to the mark for me. I got burned on this market when Hughes became manager of Blackburn (the inside track I received reported from a Blackburn Director that Advocaat had been verbally offered it and had accepted) - I lumped on and became toast, so anything I make back on this market will be gratefully received.
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Re: Golf, the open Will be looking to Lay Woods - still erratic with the driver and he won't get away with it in Hoylake. Davis Love looks a good one to back & lay. Harrington won't be a million miles away either for the same trick.
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Re: The Big 5 System Well if he is I think its fair to say that its obvious to everyone what he's doing so there's no genius in it?? I was dubious about this at the start but overall I have to say congrats to you PR - I know its in a tournie where the fav's overall are doing well but fair dues, it is working. Has to be said - excellent input by Thunderfoot.
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Re: Laying Odds On Shots I have a system of laying fav's in certain races to place. Its been in monthly profit since it started. What I've learned (& I'm by no means a racing punter) is that you need to put in filters to make the picks more systematic e.g. number of runners, length of race, incl/excl AW, out of form yard etc etc. If you retrace your loosers from your paper trades and see if there's any "trends" that a filter may knock them out for you as possible selections - you may be amazed at what falls out. Like I said above, my system is to lay to place, that way I find it keeps my pay-outs bigger and my wins proportionally larger also. Best of luck in any case.
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Re: Martingale Can it work!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What was your stake for the Swiss match?
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Re: LAY 0 - 0 Football Strategy Ok - layed 0-0 in the Argie & Holland games to good effect; also layed at 1-0 for 50% of my initial lay so two good games there BUT I layed the 0-0 in the late game & got called away early into the game - couldn't trade out and lost all my earlier profits + another multiple of that so am down heavily on the day. Its my own fault and let it be a lesson to anyone going down this route. On a related issue ... I contacted Betfair to see is there anyway to put up an unmatched bet to trade out into a loosing position to avoid the above happening again ... i.e. I lay a score, say 2-2 for €10 at 20.0 (its presently available to back at 19.0) but as I won't be watching the game while at my PC/phone, I now also want to put in a "back" bet of €20 on the market for a 2-2 scoreline but only when the price drops to 10.0 (to equalise out my losses) ..... Betfair said I can't do it .... does anyone in here know of a program that will run along side betfair & execute a trade for a pre-determined amount at a pre-determined odd/offer? i.e. will execute a trade of backing the 2-2 scoreline for €20 when that market hits the 10.0 mark?
Slapdash systems 2006
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The last time I got asked this I got referred back to page 1 of the thread but I'm not sure the answer is there so here goes again ..... (if anyone has the patience to answer!) am I right in saying we are backing e/w on the basis that Betfairs prices are more "accurate" early on than the bookies and it is this "edge" that we are essentially backing to come in enough times to keep us in profit overall ??? ie. in some ways backing price takers with possible "inside" info on betfair (or catching early gambles) and backing them at the higher "non-adjusted" bookie market??? Thanks! Rafa.