Rafa
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Posts posted by Rafa
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Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... 0.5 of a point out on the Steelers game bring it down, shite luck. Keep going, there's a lot of interest in this thread.
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Re: International Rules: Ireland vs Australia Its not a sport. Its a joke. Each code should stick to their own. Its been like this every game since it started. 82,000 went yesterday to watch the fights not the game; a player was unconscious on the pitch for 5 minutes; it was a disgrace. The best thing for all would be to cancel it full stop.
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Re: Home Football Drip Maybe you should give credit to the guy that actually invented the Rising Floor staking plan?
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Re: Rockymogs Lay System I think you are not being selective enough in your picks. This system will work.
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Re: odd/even total goals. SINGLES. +30% yield. 43 bets. Probably a very obvious question but do you track all your boxes through Excel or if not how so (would it be possible to e-mail out a version of one)? Is the system dependant on getting 1.85 in odds?
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Re: Clearing The Debt!!! Not wanting to bump in on anyone's thread here but if you include horses in your selections you haven't a chance of getting 31 in a row. I've seen this done with one sport only so far - NBA. Short priced home fav vs tired poorer away teams; average odds were 1.1; the guy turned $500 into $5,000 over the season. He was very selective with bets. I think its possible laying away teams in soccer and maybe rugby if selective. Again, getting odds of around 1.1 - 1.15. Thats just my 2p worth, feel free to ignore but I'd be confident that if you stay picking horses and have loads of selections you'll end up adding lots of £20 to your account. Just as a matter of interest why not try this; 6 * 1.2 bets triples a bank. So if you were to start with say £50, you could make £150; bank say £75 of that & and go again. It would put less pressure on you than trying to make 31 in a row. Best of luck.
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Re: The trek begins, From Week 1 On... You are still well up :ok overall.
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Good results DAC. I was up on the weekend thank God but lost on Wasps & Biarritz handicaps yesterday which brought me back, very disappointing - however I did back my own men Munster with 4.5 when I saw Paul Burke and Leo Cullen were selected; Burke was 3rd choice outhalf at Munster and Cullen was never a fear for our pack previously; when I saw the rain on top of it I thought we'd a chance with a few points. A few mates of mine travelled and all the feedback was that the team were very focused and deteremined. I backed us at +16.5 also for a bit of cover though :ok. Wasps were disappointing overall but I couldn't believe Biarritz letting Northampton back in for the score to beat my handicap by 0.5 of a point - sickening. Great call on Cardiff, I followed you in on that one :nana
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Re: Drip Mk2 Happy Gooner - this is the 2/3 similar post I've seen you make. You sound desperate and this is NOT a time to start lumping on anything & everything someone recommends. Sounds like you need a break from punting for a few days; why not take the weekend off and come back fresh for the fight Monday rather than pressuring yourself to make back any losses asap. Take it from me, it works :ok
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Re: Betting large on heavily stacked in-running events I've done it, its very dangerous, period. You don't enjoy the bets because the levels are high & the risk reward usually just doesn't match. I've seen 1.01's lose in tennis, soccer and horse racing. I've also layed 1.05's with good success. Take the opposite view just for 1 week. Look for odds which are artifically low and lay them; the amount of matches where a team gets cut to 1.15 or below after scoring first early on is unreal; unless they score again you have the rest of the game to wait for an equaliser or to trade out if you lay them at this point; now put that the other way, you've just backed heavy at 1.15, you are now planking it, the market has been cut artifically low and now even though your team are still winning the market will not cut lower until much more time has elapsed. Same thing happens in tennis, player 1 wins the first set; his opponents odds rocket out; he is well capable of breaking in the second set/winning the second set you think (ignore the actual outcome), so you back player 2 & wait for the break and trade out to equalise profit as the two players come back to parity in the market. Betfair may be unreal for value for outsiders, but generally speaking IR fav's are always artifically low. Just as one final thought ... statistically about 22% of all goals scored in a match are in the last 15 mins ..... I've had "under 2.5 goal" bets that were trading at 1.05 get stuffed after 3 goals in the last 20 - its unreal what you see happen when you least expect it (& you've cash on it). Best of luck in any case, but its not for me. I'm with WFTE on this one, I'll take my titbits added on the bank, slow and steady daily or weekly or whatever, the "big kill" bets may come off 9/10 but when they don't you're finished.
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Re: Greyhound Dutching System
Hi, good thread, very interesting. Without wanting to sound like a broken record here, what were your stakes at for this race i.e. Race 5?Result T3 Won Race 5 [3-1] Stop Betting with a Profit of £30:clap -
Re: Euro Ice Hockey Leagues: (16-23/10) Great picks Bamse81 :nana
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Re: Nhl 17/10/06 Colorado @ Toronto under 6.5 goals 1.56 Betfair. 3 of 4 of Toronto's home games this season have been "unders" & Colorado's only away game was an "under" so this should be solid. Toronto's last home game was a big over vs Calgary but I think that was more of a one-off given the opponent.
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Re: Nhl 17/10/06 Colorado @ Toronto under 6.5 goals 1.56 Betfair. 3 of 4 of Toronto's home games this season have been "unders" & Colorado's only away game was an "under" so this should be solid. Toronto's last home game was a big over vs Calgary but I think that was more of a one-off given the opponent.
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Re: Manager Leaving Syndrome Maybe Pitmaster & some of the guys across the world that follow other leagues could track this in a seperate thread?
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Re: Drip Mk2 Getting near Vegas now!
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Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Info like the Bayonne info is priceless DAC :ok
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Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 I know the same DAC, we are always slow starters. It suited us last year to go to Sale first in the HEC & again this year its perfect to play Leicester away early & then at home late on when we are in full cry. Everyone in Munster expected Leinster to beat us two weeks ago; they wanted to win it to prove something to themselves; Munster wanted a good warmup game for Leicester. The Leinster celebrations at the end were comical to be honest, as for the verbal abuse we took from the Leinster fans; it was like nothing I've experienced at at rugby ground; we just laughed at them & sang "champiooooooooonaaaaaassssssss". Ulster will surprise many this year in the HEC, they are in a tough group but no one will beat them easily. I expect them to beat Toulouse in Ravenhill. Will you continue this in the HEC?
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Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Correct me if I'm wrong here Slapdash but I assume I'm correct in saying that if you had also backed all your selections on an exchange you'd also be in profit but not quite as much?? Reason I'm saying this is because there's an obvious link between your posts and prices moving at the traditional bookies so would people still have "value" backing your selections at the exchanges if the prices have gone with the traditional bookies when they login? I know I'm stating the obvious here but what a great thread. Congrats.
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Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Excellent punting again DAC. Munster were terrible, as bad as I can ever remember them. As for Leinster, I think nights & results like this will be the reason why they'll always far just short in the HEC.
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Re: 1% 'Steady Drip' Getting close to doubling the bank ...... :hope :)
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Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Flannery is a long term injury DAC, he won't be back for months. I don't like the handicap myself but I think we'll start strong and make a few changes in the second half if we're clear. Its a mis-conception that Munsters backs are not capable of racking up points (just ask Sale!), its just that the forwards can be so dominant on their day that the backs see less of the ball than other teams. On the flip side Leinsters backs get so much ball because their pack is not physical enough. Virtually all Munster people I know backed Leinster to win in Toulouse last year - the game was tailor made for them, conversely if Perpignan had played Leinster and Toulouse had played Munster it could have been an all-French semi rather than an all-Irish one.
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Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Munster HT/FT at 1.42 on Betfair looks good to me.
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Re: Magners Celtic League Betting Thread 2006/7 Like you said DAC, if there was no HEC next weekend it should be more of a shoe-in but saying that the season is still early and most teams will want to field strong teams to get match fitness back and ensure that the backs & forwards "moves" are clicking. Its a big margin away from home but I think the last 20 mins should see Leinster stretch clear. As for my own team, Munster, we will be playing a full strength team ahead of the Leicester game & are at home in Thomond tonight (its a sellout). I haven't seen the handicaps yet but unless they're massive Munster should be well up to put on a few points ahead of the Welford Road trip.
Home Football Drip
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Home Football Drip His staking methodology increases ROI for positive even stakes betting. In my book thats something worth being appreciative of. Well done with your picks so far & good luck with this.