Rafa
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Posts
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Posts posted by Rafa
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Re: Unders & Draws Strategy Great results to date. Would it be worthwhile splitting out your ROI into "unders" and "draws" to see if you should employ a different staking mix to maximise ROI?
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Re: Greyhound Dutching System That would be great, thanks Striker & contuinued success with this.
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Re: Greyhound Dutching System Sorry, maybe so just document your own stakes when last you got to race 5/6 without a winner. Again, this is not a lead in to a bashing, I just want to understand your staking progression and dutching where races progress without a winner.
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Re: 999 it's the each way filth Chief Dan George .... comes in :clap
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Re: Bamsie and G:G Ice Hockey Best Bet Danish Oddset Ligaen Bet 7: Herning -1 (AH) @ 1.74 5 pts What bookie is this with guys? its only 1.5 at www.bwin.com? Thanks!
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Re: Greyhound Dutching System Great thread. I was wondering if you could help me out striker with your staking; Say I have the following odds for the two dogs I'm backing for the first 6 races and got a winner with dog 2 in race 6; can you show me your stakes (& prgression of smae) please for each race? Race 1 2.1 3.2 Race 2 3.1 3.2 Race 3 5.2 2.2 Race 4 4.1 2.2 Race 5 3.1 2.0 Race 6 2.2 2.0 (winner) This is a query in relation to understanding your system, not a lead-in to criticise. Thanks.
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Re: NBL Basketball: Computer Generated Results Have you a staking plan attaching to this Ads? whats your ROI for the system? Congrats on system to date - excellent :nana
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Looks good alright, I'll be doubling it in Perpignan tb Castres outright (around 1.35).
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Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Has anyone checked to see if this would/how much this would be in profit if you only used Betfair/Betdaq (e/w, win, or place?) I can't watch this site for when Slapdash posts and it seems most of his tips are "corrected" by the relevant bookie quite quickly after he posts so the "edge" is gone when I get online.
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Re: Manager Leaving Syndrome Evens & and bit less than 3/1 for those two so - thanks Stephen. Any chance of getting the Raith odds? Assuming they are not enormous then maybe there's a case so for following a loosing trend and laying the first game loosers for their 2nd game after the boss has gone also?
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Re: The fundsmanager's strategy If $640 bet: Oakland/Cincinnati Under 39.5 +100 - WON (score: 10-27) hadn't come in what would level/$ value would your next big bet have been at?
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Re: Manager Leaving Syndrome As a potential add-on to the system ... I looked at the next result for all the teams that had LOST their first game after sacking their Manager (i.e. those teams that were loosers for our system BUTonly for the 2006/2007 season - starting with Bet 12 infact). There's 12 games in this sample; 3 of which went on to win their second game after loosing their manager. 2 of them managed to get a draw. So it'd be P12 W3 D2 L7 for this sample. I guess at that stage it'd be a question of what odds did the 3 winners come in at; if anyone can dig back into Betfair or elsewhere, the 3 "winning games" were; Bet 12 Follow-on Bet : Stranraer vs RAITH 1-4 Bet 13 Follow-on Bet : WBA vs Leeds 4-2 Bet 19 Follow-on Bet : Birmingham vs Norwich 0-1 I'd imagine even those 3 winners would have given us enough odds to be up in overall terms (average odds of just 3/1 would see us breakeven). Interesting enough (am sure its just a co-incidence but all three winning "2nd" games were from the Championship). For those of you that watch "goals scored"; 6 of the 12 were over 2.5 goals per game; 6 were under. In fact 4 of the games had 4 goals or more. Maybe a sign of players going for broke to score/impress & taking more risks than normal? Great thread this :cheers
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Re: Manager Leaving Syndrome
Of the 14 "wins" for the system; ten have been at home, 4 away.This is going well david, just had a quick look at the results and it looks like if the team is playing at home in the next game, the better chance of winning. Hull have a tough match at Plymouth next, see how they get on. Good stuff! -
Re: Manager Leaving Syndrome Alan Pardew at West Ham (got to feel for the guy - bit of a shite decision after getting them to last years Cup Final).
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Re: NBL Basketball - Round 12 (Dec. 6th to Dec. 10th) Do you have a return on investment for your picks? the strike rate is very impressive obviously, but ROI is king to show how you are truly performing. If say 70% of your picks are heavy odds on your ROI would show the true performance of your system. Excellent strike results so far, thanks very much for posting.
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Great calls DAC as always. Anyone looking at Munster today, be careful. Cardiff are VERY up for this match & Munster without Flannery away from Thomond are not shoe-ins by any means. The lineout is crucial to us and without Jerry Flannery it only functions at 60%.
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... I fancy Leicester to win in Bourgoin tonight, they always do enough when their backs are to the wall; I've backed them outright, taken a positive view that that'll def come in and backed 80% of the (assumed) profits on that on them covering the handicap. I've done this before to good effect. If the form/motivated team wins well both bets come in, if they just fall over the line with the win & fail to make the handicap, the first bet over-covers the handicap bet so you're still up. I know there's a "double" loss potential but I like to think of it as betting on the handicap with insurance. Only a large upset finishes the bet off totally. Re: your two DAC; 50pts is a LOT to cover for any team, once the bonus point is won the motivation to stay going for more can be missing especially if there's bigger cames on the horizon. The Scottish bet looks good and am on the same, nothing in the game for Norbonne and rugby is the wrong sport to be playing if you're not 100% motivated.
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Why not put your Hein Cup selections on your blog also DAC? You are going well there also.
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Re: Henieken Cup Betting Thread... Week 3 of this great comp coming up ..... For what its worth there are 1000's of Munster fans travelling to Cardiff for the match with the Blues. It'll be one of if not the largest travelling support for an away group game in the competition. The crowd could literally be only 60/40 Blues/Munster. Munsters Irish players are on a high; Foley & Flannery are out for Munster but we still should have enough to give a serious account of ourselves. Cullen scored against Connacht and looks very very fit, Mafi looked good also so we have a few options finally appearing in the back division. Sheahan is a serious weaklink in the front row & thats in all areas, scrummaging, line-up, in the tight and loose but Quinlan coming into the back row with Leamy moving to 8 lessens the loss of Foley considerably. We have ourselves in pole position in this group and this really is the crunch game to put ourselves in grade A slot to top it outright. I can't see beyond Munster winning it in a tight one. As for the other game in the group, its a must-win for Leicester (aren't they all) but when Leicester in the past have needed a win they've got it and you would have thought this would be no different. As for Munsters nearest and dearest, expect Agen to give a decent account of themselves vs Leinster (or maybe thats just wishful thinking on my behalf!).
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Re: Champions League Winner 2006/7 25/1 on Liverpool is good. They should definitely tighten in from this. They are on track to win their group, if they get a decent draw in the next round they will be able to be layed at that stage. Saying that if Gerrard & Carragher find form, home & away they are capable of beating anyone & progressing. Valenica & Lyon are the two teams that none of the so-called "big" teams will want to draw later on. I think Arsenal showed that CSKA will be dumped out by a decent team that takes its chances.
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Re: Home Football Drip Be way more selective with your picks. Even someone that lives & breathes the Bundesliga would struggle to make cash with that many selections. One good bet every day/every 2nd day/every week is better than a splatter gun approach of 5/6 per day. To have properly researched and analyised the amount of games you are backing you'd want to have a shed load of time on your hands.
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Re: Hockey system Looking good Staffy :ok
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Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)... ################################################################# Tuesday's Sides: 1) Hou, 2) Min, 3) Ind, 4) Sea, 5) GS, 6) Atl Totals: 1) Atl un, 2) Ind ov, 3) Sea ov, 4) Hou un, 5) Min un, 6) GS un ################################################################# Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above... ################################################################# Does this mean you are backing the above Brewers & have 12 bets going in? are the the matchups straight or on handicaps? Can you do a summary after each night? Something like; P/L on the night; P/L overall; Number of wins/losses ROI etc etc that kind of thing as people (I think) are finding the thread hard to follow - which is obviously a pity as your results look very impressive :ok
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Re: Czech Republic - Gambrinus Liga (Nov 4-6) Will this be a tight affair? Under 2.5 goals on betfair is at 1.65? I'm thinking of laying the draw/0-0 correct score, is this advisable? These 2 have been involved in five 0-0 scorelines already this season - is it best avoided? could it be another 0-0?
Longshot-Favourite Bias - Rugby
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Longshot-Favourite Bias - Rugby Newport have big injuries, that may not be a shoe-in - see DAC's excellent Magners League thread.