newjack

England vs Croatia
Vast majority seems to be on England and Under. I beg to differ. Croatia is not what it was without Rakitic and Mandzukic, having lost a lot of firepower with those two they're still a good team and @7 is just crazy.
Not gonna go into too much details here so here are the bets:
Over 2,5 @ 2.08 1,5u
Croatia ML @ 7 0,5u
Croatia +1 @ 1.95 1u

I really love what @StefanBB wrote. Turkey in my opinion is gonna be a tough nut to crack and they do prefer offense vs defense. On the other hand Italy is no longer "get goal park the bus" kind of a team and is quite efficient in front of a goal. Only problem is they don't concede much. Given the fact that this is the opener I'm really leaning on overs. I do believe the Italy will win as they're the "dark horse" of the tournament but Turkey won't go down without a fight.
Turkey on avg scores 2.2 goals and concedes 1.5, BTTS occured 60% of the time while failing to score 20% of the time and kept a clean sheet 30% of the time in the last 10 matches.
Italy scores on avg 2,6 goals but concedes 0,1. They failed to score 10% of the time but managed to keep CS 90% of the time in last 10 matches.
The odds on Over 2,5 are at 2,3 and probability for o2,5 is at 50%. Prediction is 1:2 in favor of Italy.
 
 

I really love what @StefanBB wrote. Turkey in my opinion is gonna be a tough nut to crack and they do prefer offense vs defense. On the other hand Italy is no longer "get goal park the bus" kind of a team and is quite efficient in front of a goal. Only problem is they don't concede much. Given the fact that this is the opener I'm really leaning on overs. I do believe the Italy will win as they're the "dark horse" of the tournament but Turkey won't go down without a fight.
Turkey on avg scores 2.2 goals and concedes 1.5, BTTS occured 60% of the time while failing to score 20% of the time and kept a clean sheet 30% of the time in the last 10 matches.
Italy scores on avg 2,6 goals but concedes 0,1. They failed to score 10% of the time but managed to keep CS 90% of the time in last 10 matches.
The odds on Over 2,5 are at 2,3 and probability for o2,5 is at 50%. Prediction is 1:2 in favor of Italy.
 
 

Man this season is really wierd. I havent been posting much but thats mostly because i cant make heads and tails of whats what. 
One thing i noticed is there are alot of pens awarded, in fact avg odds on pen os 2.75 to 3.75, match dependant. Every week we get pen in probably 5/10 matches. See where im going with this?
 

Also fancy Eve to beat ManU, safer bet here would be bts + 0,25 at 1.9, high probability of that hitting. Also fancy Sheff to +1,1,5 and straight out ml for small stakes. I think they can hold chelsea back, was evident vs man city. 
Slightly leaning to leeds, like their style, but as thfc mentioned i don't see palace here as dogs, will stay away from this one., 

Afaik Lovren is out, Firminho is sick but will likely play, Gomey out, Dyk out, that backline looks awful however the good thing pool has going for them is that Bayern's defense this season has been attrocious to say the least. On avg they concede 1.2 goals. They've conceded a goal in last 6 bundesliga matches, 2 against augsburg and herta. They are slowly grinding but i reckon pool will be a very difficult fixture for them and here's why: They're used to pressing footie, holding the ball, attacking and creating chances. And Liverpool simply won't allow it, at best you're looking at 50/50 possesion imo even in spite of liverpool's missing defenders and most probably Fabinho or henderson will play in Lovren's position. I can't see LP not conceding here, but it's also hard to see them not winning at home so imo o2,5&bts or LP&o2,5 might be something to seriously consider.

tough matchups tbf, i think i'm staying away.

whats with all the complications lately? just looking at some statistics you can tell what is what, i don't wanna sound arrogant or cocky but why bother with low end of the table? it's completely random and basically anything can happen. For that matter upper league table offers some nice fixtures for overs. Assuming Spurs will play poorly based of 1 cup match that they won? come on. Spurs racked 14 goals in previous 4 matches. Since Sol UTD in last 5 matches racked 16 goals. Both have tendency to concieve a goal and both average 1,5+ goals per game. Relying on h2h is irrelevant at this point because Man U's play style is different. Spurs will want to welcome this new attacking crazyness and counter of it. Last meeting was 0:3 at the ol' trafford, i bet Utd will want to get points here, i doubt they'll be happy with a draw especially if gunners botch the match vs west ham. Spurs also can afford to drop points.
Like i said 2nd game i liked was Pool to win to nil (at the time i said it it was at 2.10, now it's 1.95, I expect to drop to 1.9 come match day). pool on avg concedes 0,64 goals per game when away (that % went slightly up because of city matchup). I can't see Brighton scoring. Liverpool control the match start to finish. Win 0:1 or 0:2 most probable.
Arsenal - Westham
Goals goals goals. Previous matches between West Ham United and Arsenal have averaged 3.64 goals while BTTS has happened 64% of the time  Arsenal hasn't kept a clean sheet when away this season on avg conceding 2,1 goals while scoring 2,2 (when away). Ham scores 1,5 goals on avg at home while conceding 1,6 goals. Kept clean sheet 9% of the time, arsenal 0%. Super easy bet here.
Last but not least
Everton - Bournemouth
The teams that usually cuck me in this one, but again i can't predict a winner in this one because both teams are hot/cold at times. Just looking at h2h:
Previous matches between Everton and AFC Bournemouth have averaged 3.88 goals while BTTS has happened 75% of the time.  This season Bournemouth on avg scores 1,2 goals when away and concedes 2,3 goals. Everton at home scores 1,64 goals and concedes 1,45 goals. Both have kept clean sheets in 20% range while failing to score is also low. (9% Eve). So again I go for goals.
Ty and good night

whats with all the complications lately? just looking at some statistics you can tell what is what, i don't wanna sound arrogant or cocky but why bother with low end of the table? it's completely random and basically anything can happen. For that matter upper league table offers some nice fixtures for overs. Assuming Spurs will play poorly based of 1 cup match that they won? come on. Spurs racked 14 goals in previous 4 matches. Since Sol UTD in last 5 matches racked 16 goals. Both have tendency to concieve a goal and both average 1,5+ goals per game. Relying on h2h is irrelevant at this point because Man U's play style is different. Spurs will want to welcome this new attacking crazyness and counter of it. Last meeting was 0:3 at the ol' trafford, i bet Utd will want to get points here, i doubt they'll be happy with a draw especially if gunners botch the match vs west ham. Spurs also can afford to drop points.
Like i said 2nd game i liked was Pool to win to nil (at the time i said it it was at 2.10, now it's 1.95, I expect to drop to 1.9 come match day). pool on avg concedes 0,64 goals per game when away (that % went slightly up because of city matchup). I can't see Brighton scoring. Liverpool control the match start to finish. Win 0:1 or 0:2 most probable.
Arsenal - Westham
Goals goals goals. Previous matches between West Ham United and Arsenal have averaged 3.64 goals while BTTS has happened 64% of the time  Arsenal hasn't kept a clean sheet when away this season on avg conceding 2,1 goals while scoring 2,2 (when away). Ham scores 1,5 goals on avg at home while conceding 1,6 goals. Kept clean sheet 9% of the time, arsenal 0%. Super easy bet here.
Last but not least
Everton - Bournemouth
The teams that usually cuck me in this one, but again i can't predict a winner in this one because both teams are hot/cold at times. Just looking at h2h:
Previous matches between Everton and AFC Bournemouth have averaged 3.88 goals while BTTS has happened 75% of the time.  This season Bournemouth on avg scores 1,2 goals when away and concedes 2,3 goals. Everton at home scores 1,64 goals and concedes 1,45 goals. Both have kept clean sheets in 20% range while failing to score is also low. (9% Eve). So again I go for goals.
Ty and good night

I think odds on pool are too high. They dropped a bit last few day but game day i'm seeing them closer to 3 or possibly even sub 3. Yes City is a tough opponent but i cant help but feel value on +0,5 pool currently sitting at 1.9

I have some fun correct score bets on liverpool match:
3:0, 4:0, 5:0 so hopefully your prediction of under 2,5 doesn't come true @StevieDay1983

was so close to an epic day oh well

was so close to an epic day oh well

was so close to an epic day oh well

The only thing from keeping me from Bournemouth ML is the fact that Wolves are playing at home which is of huge significance. I really love Bourne and I do fancy backing +0,5 here at 1.85 and a touch on ML however before doing so let's look at this season's stats for both teams:
Wolves:
Scored on avg 1.25 goals at home, conceded 1.38, BTTS happened in 50% of their matches, kept a clean sheet 25% of the time at home.
Bournemouth:
Scored on avg 1.57 goals when away, conceded 1.71 goals, BTTS happened 43% of the time and they kept a clean sheet 29% of the time.
This stats don't exactly encourage an away win, i'd be more inclined into BTS however BTS is priced at 1.69 which is too low for me. Given the fact that WIlson is back i expect a tad heavier Bourne up front and given the fact that both teams can't keep a clean sheet often and conceed 1+ goal on avg and score 1+ i can see a value on Over 2,5 at 1.9 or even better over 2,5&Bts at 2.20.
I do feel we gonna see a winner here.
Other game I like for today is Palace - Leicester. A simple away win at 2.8. With Zaha and Benteke out I don't feel palace has any sort of attack going for them and with recent loss vs spurs they'll be looking for a bounce back (Leicester). With Vardy fit to play again i think they got this. If you're on a scared side i'd go Leicester 0 at 1.96.
Could be value to bet on Man City at home vs Everton. I'm not a fan of big handicaps on big teams as they usually don't cover them however in this case with the loss to Chelsea and Liverpool taking 1st (yeeey) they NEED 3 pts badly and with UCL done till feb they can focus on EPL. Aguero is fit to play and what better way to display dominance is trashing a decent team at home? I watched Eve vs Watford and in all honesty Watford deserved a win there. They worked whole game for it and it should be 2:1 Watford. I don't think Eve can compete with City especially if they decide to press them hard. Just not enough fire power, yet.
 
BOL to all

was so close to an epic day oh well

was so close to an epic day oh well

Gotta factor in Liverpool's tuesday cruicial game for napoli. IMO they'll do like they did vs Burnley, rotate players if they can score great if not bring in late players for a 1:2,0:1 type result, would not back liveprool here, if anything Bournemouth at home has been very good this year, i'd much rather back them or draw.

Couple of games i like but it all seems so risky lately
Chelsea - City - Very tempted to back city at evens however there's not a lot of teams who can play back at them and win this season, Chelsea is one of them. I read a couple of days back from a Chelsea fan here on the forum that they've had tremendous run of luck and that it will eventually run out. It did vs Wolves, but question is can they win or draw vs city? Hard to say, will definitely be looking into it.
Bournemouth - Liverpool - Def a difficult match to cap. On paper Liverpool is strong, but like Chelsea so did Live had an amazing run of games and Bourne is not at all a bad opponent. Given recent performances of liverpool and given the must win match on tuesday vs Napoli i'd consider backing Bourne +0,5. I feel like Klopp might try and rest some players as well.

What happened to liverpool this year? Result wise we're better yeah but offensively we suck major ass. I know something's got to give but playing like we're playing we can't expect results for long. Rn i feel utterly bored watching liverpool play.

Saturday's games? Don't like anything all that much.
I see potentially value on Man U at 2 away to Shampton. Can't see united not winning this but we know what kind of floppers they can be.
Leicester - Watford that's the other match i kind of like. It's a close call, but i can see 2:1/1:2 type result in this one. So o2,5 at evens seems fair.
Won't touch others today.

for some reason i read you're betting wolves to win to nil vs arsenal and i thought that you must be drunk but then re-read it and it all makes sense now

am i the only one that fancies chelsea at spurs at 2.50? seems like an insane price however spurs do like to show up against the bigs

Interesting Matchups, hardly any value but i'll give it a try.
Man U - Juventus - Interesting match with interesting odds. Contrary to popular opinion this is an over game for me. United this season in premier league kept clean sheet once while conceded 16 goals and scored 15 goals in 9 matches. These are pretty alarming numbers against a team whose striker is Ronaldo who exceeds in UCL matches. I'm leaning towards Juventus to win this one however this are the kind of matches where Man U play their best right now, against tough opponents. We've seen it this week vs Chelsea and we'll probably see it again. I do think that united will score here. Juventus is more of a defensive juggernut on the other side, conceeding 0.67 goals per match on the average but scoring 2.11 goals per match. So as always it's rough to place a bet on UCL, but i'm gonna try it with 3 bets on this match, two of which will be really small stake, one will be normal.
Ronaldo to score anytime @2.10 Bet365
Correct Score 2:2 at 15 Bet365
Over2,5&BTS at 2.40 Bet365 (normal stake)
I do feel like draw is a very possible outcome in this match, i'm just hoping for more high scoring game than your usual 0:0, 1:1 type match. Juve would be satisfied with a point at the Old trafford.
Ajax - Benfica
This is another match i like for this card. Ajax averages 2.78 goals per match that is in scoring, and conceeding less than 0,5 goals per game. On the average in Eredivisie we see 3.22 goals per game when ajax plays. I wouldn't eliminate benfica just yet as they can show up to play. Rather than backing Ajax to win, i'll back Ajax TT over 1,5 at 1.80 which is nearly same odds than backing ajax outright. They've played a wonderful game vs Bayern and should win it, but the football gods just weren't there. I can see them scoring 2 goals in this home fixture. So i'll back that which is IMO a safer option.
Ajax TT over 1.5 at 1.80 Bet365
 
 
 

What a fucking horrible saturday jesus christ. I've loved EPL throughout the years but it's getting less and less popular in my book