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Everything posted by bawsak

  1. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Friday Picks Iran v Iraq: 3/10
  2. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy W2, X1, L1 = +0.19 Total W19, X11, L12 = -1.59
  3. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy W5, X2, L1 = +0.26 Total W17 X10, L11 = -1.78
  4. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Thursday Picks Zambia v Tunisia: 2/1 (0.5 stake) South Korea v Uzbekistan: 4/9 China v Australia: 1/4 Rennes v Riems: 4/11
  5. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Wednesday picks Gabon v Congo: 4/9 Monaco v Evian: 2/11 Bressuire v Le Poire Sur Vie: 1/4 PSG v Bordeaux: 2/11 Gil Vicente v Maritimo: 9/20 St Mirren v Dundee Utd: 2/5 Villarreal v Getafe: 1/5 Barcelona v Ath Madrid: 1/4
  6. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy W2, X2, 1L = -0.2 Total W12, X8, L10 = -2.04
  7. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Tuesday Picks Ivory Coast v Guinea: 1/4 Middlesbrough v Cardiff: 3/10 Doncaster v Notts County: 2/5 Inverness v St Johnstone: 1/2 Nantes v Lyon: 8/11
  8. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy 3W, 1X, 1L = +0.4 Running Total 10W, 6X, 9L = -1.84
  9. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Monday Picks Sweden v Finland: 4/7 Iran v UAE: 1/2 South Africa v Algeria: 2/5 Nancy v Orleans: 2/5 Bologna v Perugia: 1/2
  10. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy W4, X2, L3 = +0.2 Running Total W7, X5, L8 = -2.24
  11. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Running Total 3W, 3D, 5L = -2.44
  12. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy one more for 3.45kick off dutch league Heracles v Excelsior: 4/11
  13. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Sunday Picks Feyenoord v Twente: 4/11 Chievo v Fiorentina : 10/21 Sevilla v Malaga: 3/1 (0.5 stake) Llagostra v Valladolid: 1/2 Mallorca v Mirandes: 21/10 (0.5 stake) Tenerife v Numancia: 8/13 Alcocron v Ponferradina: 8/15 China v North Korea: 4/11 Uzbekistan v Saudi Arabia: evens
  14. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Sorry about this. Cant work out how to edit / delete. Running total -1.44
  15. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Apologies Total= -1.42
  16. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy 2 wins, 0 losses = +1.62 Running total 3W, 3D, 4L = -1.42
  17. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Total: 1W, 4L = -3.06
  18. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Cheers mate
  19. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Altrincham 19/20 Falkirk 3/4 Dunfermline 1/2 Spezia 1/3 Ternana 4/6
  20. Re: Draw No Bet Strategy Tomorrow's picks (team backed underlined) MK Dons v Sheff Utd: 4/9 AFC Wimbledon v Carlisle: 3/5 Northampton v Dag & Red: 11/4 (0.5 stake) Australiav S.Korea: 1/2 Oman v Kuwait: 11/8
  21. Not sure if anyone has tried something similar to this before. I am going to look to find DNB value where the DNB odds are slightly out of sync with the match odds. Quite often they are out of sync by a few points which means there is value to be had either in the 1x2 or in the DNB market (it tends to be only 0-3% edge but Im going to look long term and see if it turns a profit) . For this experiment (and it is only that just now) I will presume the bookies have accurately priced up the 1x2 so the value lies with DNB. Lost? I will try and clarify. Lets take an eg Home 2.00 Draw 4.00 Away 4.00 (I know the draw would normally be under 4.00 and away over but Im keeping the maths simple) Over 100 games should be 50H, 25X, 25A, take away the 25X, we are left with 75 games, 50H and 25H. The DNB odds should reflect this and be 1.50 H, 3.00 A, therefore anything above those odds represents value. I am going level stakes anything under 3.00 and half stakes 3.00 and above.
  22. Auchinleck Talbot v Stranraer Auchinleck win 19/10 (Bwin) Auchinleck Talbot are the best Junior team in Scotland - they may even be the best non-league team (there are different organisations of non-league football in Scotland - the Juniors (SJFA) being a separate entity from Highland League, East of Scotland and South of Scotland leagues which are affiliated to the SFA . Unlike England there are no avenues for Scottish non-league clubs to enter League 2 so no matter how good they are they will remain non-league unless there is league reconstruction. Auchinleck regularly pluck part time players from league 1 and league 2 and keep players who are sought by teams in these leagues. Bottom line, Auchinleck's squad is full of players who are League 1 / top of League 2 standard so they are on a par with Sranraer. Effectively what we have here is 2 evenly matched teams where the away side is the favourite so the value lies with the home side. This could be the biggest away crowd Stranraer will face this season other than when they go to Rangers, Dunfermline or Ayr Utd and it will certainly be the most hostile. Auchinleck is a village of 3000 people but they are football mad and don't be surprised if 1/3 of the village is there today. Last week, Auchinleck missed a penalty to go 3-1 up and Stranraer grabbed a 93rd minute equaliser. The value lies with Auchinleck for me. Auchinleck to qualify is 13/10 (Stranraer are part-time pros so shouldn't have any fitness edge if there is extra-time) also at Bwin for a safer bet but I will be taking the straight win.
  23. Re: NFL week 9 picks Good shout Paddy, OT counts for the points tally, right?
  24. Re: NFL week 9 picks One thing I got wrong was Buffalo killed KC on the ground. The young QB did well to up until the 3rd quarter - 3rd & goal on the 1 for Buffalo to go 17-3 up and Smith intercepts him and takes it 100 yards for 10-10. I think my bet loses if Buffalo scores here but I suppose that is why you take the bet because you know Chiefs defence can do this. Chiefs D then comes up with fumble return for the TD to make it 20-13 early in the 4th. This defence looks impressive and vulnerable at the same time. They will come up with sacks and turnovers because they gamble but they can give up the big play - Buffalo's TD was a 59yd pass and the 3rd & goal was off the back of a 61 yard run. I just wonder how this style of defence will stand up to to Peyton Manning in 2 weeks.
  25. Kansas City @ Buffalo KC (-3.5) to win 10/11 (Paddy Power) + (most other bookies) I don't believe KC is an all round good enough team to be Superbowl contenders yet but as I have discussed here previously this pass rush is awesome. They are not an 8-0 standard team, yet I see them going to 9-0 here. If Buffalo had a healthy squad I would put this as a 50/50 game because their front 7 on defence is the strength of their team and will give KCs offence problems. It's just I see KCs defence giving Buffalo's offence far more problems. Buffalo's offensive line are not playing great which is not what you want against this team. Add to that, at QB they will either have back up Thad Lewis who has not practised all week, or more likely the much criticised 3rd string Jeff Tuel. I think Houston, Hali & co will be licking their chops. RBs Jackson & Spiller have not fully practised this week either (Spiller returning from an ankle injury) so I think they may also have problems running the ball to take some heat off the QB. I don't see the Chiefs being particularly productive on offence in this game but I think they will have enough with good starting field position and possibly some turnovers provided by the defence. Smith at QB for KC will face some heat as well but he is a master at being patient, waiting for opportunities and managing the game. I think Buffalo needs to get the lead in this game. If they don't they will have to put the game in their QBs hands at some point and when that happens I can see carnage. I am not always confident backing KC on the road as I think Arrowhead can be a big advantage for them but for the reasons above I think they could actually win this by 10+ points.
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