footballeye
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Posts posted by footballeye
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Re: Russia > Sogaz Russian Championship > 2014/15
No value at these odds in my view. Zenit played Ural three times before with all games ending 2-1 to Zenit, with the St.Petersburg team eventually prevailing only in the last 20 minutes of each game. On Saturday Ural will probably defend in numbers and Zenit often has a problem scoring against defensive sides. Also, the hosts have an upcoming EL game in midweek and they will keep it in mind. A win by a one goal magin is going to be OK for Zenit. I see more value in Ural (+1.5) at 2.34 maraphonbetZenit St Petersburg - Ural Handicap Zenit (-1) @ 1,36 -
Re: Ligue 2 > December 12th - 15th
Reading the excellent preview above and looking at the odds I can see over 4 for the AW and about evens for the HW (and falling). Isn't there value in backing Sochaux or/and a draw? And can anyone explain why the odds on Niort are falling?Niort – Sochaux Sochaux are unbeaten in 12 ligue games and have yet to suffer defeat away from home this season. They suffered a shock loss to Strasbourg in the cup on Monday night, but it’s quite possible of a rebound tonight. I don’t expect this to be much of a classic. Niort are only a mediocre side who tend to struggle scoring goals. This one smells of a draw, maybe even a 0-0. Chances are likely to be at a premium and it’s not the sort of fixture that really interests me from a betting point of view. Prediction: Niort 0-0 Sochaux NO BET -
Re: AS Monaco v Zenit Saint-Petersburg > Tuesday December 9th Monaco needs a draw in this game, to qualify for the playoffs. Obviously they will not be pushing forward too much until/unless they are a goal down. Monaco only conceded 1(!) goal in 5 previous group matches, and scored only 2. All their previous matches in this group ended under 1.5 goals. Zenit needs a win here and with at least the 3rd place in the group (EL qualification) already secured they have nothing to lose. So they will have to attack. Zenit mostly relies on individual skills and creativity of its stars for goals, which makes the results less predictable. While as a Zenit supporter I hope for the opposite, realistically I don't think they will manage more than one goal here, if any at all. OTOH I don't think the visitors will open up too much and will be vulnerable to counter attacks. One of the things the current Zenit team can do really well is defending their goal and especially intercepting the opposition's fast breaks in the middle of the pitch -- DM Javi Garcia is crucial for that and his return from injury in last Satursday's league game was a very good news for the Petersburgers. The visitors have no injury concerns. Striker Kerzhakov was not included in the squad for the trip to Monaco and there's a conflict between him and Villas-Boas but this is not a problem because Rondon is a better striker and would play anyway. With reliable defense, 4 of the 5 previous Zenit matches in this group ended under 2.5 goals, and I don't expect this trend to change in Monaco. An underish game is an obvious expectation here, with a possible score of 0-0, 1-1, or maybe 0-1. The odds favor Monaco slightly but I don't see how this is justified. They somehow beat group leaders Leverkusen twice but from what I read they probably didn't deserve the 3 points in either fixture. Monaco only managed one point in two games against Benfica. I think they should not be favourites here and view this encounter as a match of two equal teams. The odds of over 3 for a draw look generous, especially considering the fact that the hosts need only one point to progress, so there may be value in betting on a draw.
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Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Benfica > Wednesday November 26th
Sorry, the paragraph marks disappeared somehow, and the forum doesn't allow me to edit my own message.... -
Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Benfica > Wednesday November 26th Before Zenit's previous CL fixture (Zenit-Leverkusen) I wrote about the hosts' improved defense which is not allowing the opposition to create many scoring chances, especially at Petrovsky. While I wasn't totally incorrect and Leverkusen was allowed only one real chance to score, they somehow netted two goals, the other one came from a free kick which initially didn't look particularly dangerous.My expectations for the Zenit-Benfica game are similar: Zenit's improved defense with Garay and DM Javi Garcia should not allow the visitors to create much near the Zenit area, especially because Benfica are no better than Bayer. The current squad plays very cautiously at the back, in particular not allowing the opposition chances for fast counter attacks. At the other end, the individual skills of Hulk and Danny should help in creating maybe 2 or 3 opportunities for Rondon. Kerzhakov reportedly picked up an injury in training and will not play, I view this as a blessing in disguise after his terrible performance against Leverkusen...well, he probably wouldn't have played tomorrow anyway even if he was fit, because Rondon is so much more effective. Zenit played a league game last Saturday beating Kuban 1-0 at home without overextending themselves. They probably had in mind the upcoming Benfica fixture (which is a must win) and Villas-Boas left Danny on the bench to give him some rest.So, my prediction is Zenit to win in a low scoring game, the odds of 2.02 @marathonbet for the home win look good enough and I also see the odds going down a bit. Zenit to win to nil or under 2.5 are the other options to consider.A word of caution though:The current Zenit squad has a collection of very good players and a good coach. However, their results are inconsistent. Of the recent fixtures, Zenit had a couple of games when the team played very well (CSKA away and Leverkusen at home), three horrible ones (Terek at home, Tula at home, Leverkusen away), and an OK home game versus Kuban. This inconsistency has a reason. Most of the team's attacking play goes through Danny and/or Hulk. These guys have great individual skill and on a good day can decide the match. The problem is, not all their days are good. What happens on a bad day? The team just plays terrible football and can't create anything. The AVB's reliance on the mood of his star players makes the team unreliable and the results unpredictable. While I believe that because of the importance of the tomorrow's game Zenit will be very motivated, play with great concentration, and probably win, in the long run one should be very cautious when betting on the Petersburg team in its current state.The weather forecast for the Wednesday night is -3C, no snow, the pitch is expected to be in good condition.
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Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Tuesday November 4th Before this season Zenit had signed two top-class defensive players, CD Garay and DM Javi Garcia. Now it's become obvious that these signings have significantly improved Zenit defense. Of 10 home games this season, Zenit only conceded goals in 3, keeping clean sheet 7 times. Zenit won their last league game 1-0 away against direct competitor in the title race CSKA, again not allowing any goals. When Zenit and Bayer met in Levekusen two weeks ago, the hosts totally dominated the midfield, but in these circumstances the Zenit defense did rather well by not allowing Bayer to create many clear-cut scoring chances. Of the two goals scored by the hosts one came from a shot from distance which Zenit goalkeeper probably should have saved, and the other was a header from a set piece. In their last league game away to lowly Hamburg, Leverkusen didn't manage to score at all and lost 0-1. Based on all this information, I think there's a good chance that Zenit will not concede on Tuesday. At the other end, Hulk can always make a difference with his individual skill, also Danny typically creates a couple of good attacks in every game. Also, after the terrible performance by Zenit at Leverkusen the players reportedly had their collective butt kicked by the the management in some serious way, so I expect them to be very motivated, especially because this is a must win game for the hosts. Zenit to win in a low scoring game is my expectation of this fixture, something like 1-0 or 2-0.
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Re: UEFA Champions League Qualifying > August 19th & 20th
I think that poor Zenit results in Europe in recent years mostly had to do with Spalletti's defensive tactics in the away games. Now that he's gone, with the new coach I expect to see a team that better utilizes the strengths of its quality players, hopefully.I hardly ever disagree with you Hastgill but I think I agree with Alexc myself. They should win, but they have always flattered to deceive in my opinion and given the quality they have in their squad they have always done a lot worse than what they should do in Europe. Hulk definitely only went there for money, how could he turn that deal down? What Brazilian wants to go to Russia and play in freezing cold temperatures on poor surfaces? I put Zenit on my black list last year. In saying that, they should win this game. -
Re: UEFA Champions League Qualifying > August 19th & 20th
Looks like he is. He has the team play attacking football and has a total record of something like 11wins-1draw-1loss in the Russian league so far (mostly against weak opposition though). How good he's in Europe, we'll see soon.I have to say I have been impressed with Zenit recently - Is Villas Boas a good fit there? -
Re: Champions League Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg - Tues 29th & Wed 30th July
This was in fact an away game, the return leg will be in St.Petersburg. Zenit did dominate in Cyprus but failed to convert a few good chances they had. No problem, they should win the return leg comfortably. If they don't, that'll be a true shock.Zenit are one of those sides who seem to under-perform and can be vulnerable to shock defeats or draws. But if they really dominated and they keep it up they could easily win handsomely in Cyprus I guess. I've noticed they often seem to get better results away from home. -
Re: England > Midweek > Non-league Mar 24-27 Braintree - Nuneaton Town On Thursday, Braintree is going to have to play their 6th game in 15 days. Isn't there a value in the away win in these curcumstances? I'm asking because I have no idea what football is like at this level, and how much of a factor the dense schedule is.
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Re: Ligue 2 > March 14th - 17th The last four games between Arles and Lens produced a total of 2! goals, and ended all draws: Mon 07/10/13 LI2 Arles 1 - 1 Lens Fri 11/01/13 LI2 Lens 0 - 0 Arles Fri 03/08/12 LI2 Arles 0 - 0 Lens Fri 24/02/12 LI2 Lens 0 - 0 Arles I wonder if there's value in betting on a draw here at 3.00
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Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 25th
Damn' date=' I wish I was there. FEBRUARY in St Petersburg sounds awesome ;) [/quote'] This winter is quite unusual I must say, normally it would be below zero with snow on the ground. And yes, today was the first time this month that I saw the sun :) -
Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 25th
It's +3C now, clear and no wind. There was some sun during the day. So no concerns about the weather or the pitch condition. The temperature has been above zero for the most of February, with some light rain. The pitch of Petrovsky should be OK.Edit: Any news on the weather/pitch conditions for this match? -
Re: Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Borussia Dortmund > Tuesday February 25th So far, Spalletti's Zenit has won all their home games at the playoff stages of CL and EL: 24/02/11 EL Zenit 3 - 1 Young Boys 17/03/11 EL Zenit 2 - 0 Twente 15/02/12 CL Zenit 3 - 2 Benfica 14/02/13 EL Zenit 2 - 0 Liverpool 14/03/13 EL Zenit 1 - 0 Basel These results basically demonstrate that playing after long winter break is not a problem for this team. I expect Zenit to win on Tuesday and odds over 4 on home win look a great value to me. Zenit has no injury problems, except that the situation with Shirokov is unclear: he had an injury but also a conflict with the coach and might leave the club altogether; in any case he won't play against Dortmund. In attack, Hulk and Arshavin are world class players and their motivation will be as high as never as both will want to use every chance to impress the coaches of their respective national teams in view of the summer World Cup. The newly acquired striker Rondon should be an improvement over Kerzhakov. Speaking of Dortmund, I watched their cup game at mediocre Frankfurt and they did not impress, winning by a single goal scored from a corner. I didn't see their last league game at Hamburg but judging by the result (0-3 defeat) they weren't shining particularly brightly either. Dortmund's injury problems surely won't add any optimism to the Dortmund supporters. Especially the guests' defence doesn't look unpenetrable. Spalletti's Zenit has often struggled against the defensive-minded sides who put 10 men behind the ball trying to keep clean sheet at Petrovsky. However German teams are not like that, they play genuine football, which is why I expect Zenit to score a couple of times on Tuesday, possibly conceding once on the counter attack. Probable Zenit lineup: Lodygin - Ansaldi, Hubocan, Lombaerts, Criscito - Witsel, Fayzulin, Hulk, Shatov, Arshavin (Danny), Rondon (I posted a similar lineup on the other forum a couple of days ago but now I think it had too much skew towards attack; now I'm not sure Spalletti will want to play Arshavin and Danny at the same time) Expected result: 2-1
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Re: Serie A > January 11th - 13th Bologna have just replaced their coach in midweek, the newly appointed Ballardini might help the players find some new motivation, and they're playing at home. That is I'm not saying Lazio can't win, just saying anything can happen in this game.
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Re: FK Austria Wien v Zenit Saint-Petersburg > Wednesday December 11th Zenit ended all their group matches under 2.5 goals except the away loss at Atletico. Austria ended 3 group matches out of 5 under 2.5 goals (the other two were two losses to Atletico). I don't see why the Wednesday's game would be any different, especially knowing Spalletti's cautious approach to Zenit's away fixtures in Europe. Under 2.5 @2.20 fonbet (better odds can probably be found elsewhere).
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Re: England > FA Cup > Tuesday 3rd - Sunday 8th December
What about the weather? I read there's a severe storm hitting Northern Europe today. Might be difficult to score many goals if there's strong wind in Gateshead.4pts Gateshead vs Oxford - Over 2.5 goals 10/11 William Hill
UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 19th
in Europa League Predictions
Posted
Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday March 19th Torino - Zenit What to expect in the return leg? Zenit is not in the greatest condition at the moment. They were not convincing in the first leg where they didn’t create much in the attack even having a one man advantage for more than an hour. The two goals were scored with a help of lucky rebounds, and rolling the ball around near the opponents’ box doesn’t count for domination for me. Zenit did even worse in the league last Sunday when they failed to beat outsider Torpedo, albeit on a pitch which was hardly playable. The visitors will have one important missing on Thursday: DM Javi Garcia is unavailable through suspesion. He always plays in front of the defense, with the other two central midfielders normally located higher up the pitch, closer to the attack. In particular, Witsel supports Zenit attack much better since the arrival of Javi Garcia. In the absense of JG though, Witsel will be playing in the defensive midfielder role alongside the second DM (probably Tymoshchuk), so basically two people will be filling Javi Garcia’s place. Only one central midfielder will be supporting the attack, and this will lower Zenit’s attacking potential. But that should be fine, because with the comfortable 2-0 advantage from the first leg the Petersburgers won’t really need to attack. Their aim will be to defend and to prevent Torino from scoring twice. Speaking of defense, central defender Lombaerts has recovered from his injury and came on as a sub on Sunday, so he might play in Turin, which would be a defensive improvement for Zenit. I didn’t see any Torino home games lately, only watched their away fixtures in Florence and in St.Petersburg. I’m curious if they are able to score goals. The result of their last home game versus Lazio (0-2) suggests that they aren’t. In the first leg in St.Pete they created absolutely nothing in attack. In Florence they did some good counter attacking but Zenit most likely will take defensive approach on Thursday and probably won’t get caught on counters here. So how is Torino going to score? Is Bruno Peres going to play? He looks the most impressive player at Torino at the moment and can make a difference. Also they have Quagliarella who is very inventive and can create a goal out of nowhere, for himself or for Maxi Lopez who is a rather reliable finisher. Actually Quagliarella is one of my favorite Italian players, with all his crazy goals. He already scored against Zenit in this tournament back in 2009 playing for Udinese. I somehow believe Torino will have enough attacking power to score a goal or maybe a couple. After all, they have nothing to lose and will be forced to go forward. Overall, with such a good handicap from the first leg I definitely expect Zenit to progress to the next round even if they lose the second leg, which I think is very possible. Torino DNB at 2.20 offered by marathonbet looks good, especially because it's OK for Zenit to lose by one goal, or even by two goals if they score themselves.