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arsenalfh

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  1. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Monthly Naps Competition, Sunday 3rd April 2016   
    4 winners
    Arsenal 20/1, Xtc 7/1, Corky 8/11, CD 2/1

  2. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to DanV89 in Sunday Racing - Inc. The Curragh   
    Well done and thanks mate I was on both of these. Mr Right travelled nicely into the race on the outside didn't he and just held on. 
  3. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Tipsterix in Monthly Naps Competition, Sunday 3rd April 2016   
    3.15 Curragh - Mr Right @ 20/1 Paddy Power
    Master Speaker has to have a good chance with Ryan Moore booked as he got no sort of run the last day and was sure to go very very close. However he's only 2lbs better off with Bubbly Bellini and 1lb better off with Club Wexford so 4/1 is short enough for me. I preferred Mr Right at 20/1. He's progressed nicely on the all weather over the winter culminating with a 2nd in a race working out well. He has to prove himself on turf but he was tried over a variety of trips last season and probably not showing much so he just looks an improved horse this time around. Still lightly raced there's still scope for improvement off 71.
  4. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Blazing Bailey in Sunday Racing - Inc. The Curragh   
    Not the best card to punt at the Curragh tomorrow but it's certainly interesting with Found returning as well as Derby mover US Army Ranger set to make his debut. Nothing stands out in the opening 2 maidens at the prices. 
    In the 3rd race Master Speaker has to have a good chance with Ryan Moore booked as he got no sort of run the last day and was sure to go very very close. However he's only 2lbs better off with Bubbly Bellini and 1lb better off with Club Wexford so 4/1 is short enough for me. I preferred Mr Right at 20/1. He's progressed nicely on the all weather over the winter culminating with a 2nd in a race working out well. He has to prove himself on turf but he was tried over a variety of trips last season and probably not showing much so he just looks an improved horse this time around. Still lightly raced there's still scope for improvement off 71.
    The Gladness Stakes looks full of horses who aren't going to run to form between Sruthan who doesn't run to his best twice in a row, the O'Brien trio who are going to need the run and Gordon Lord Byron who doesn't look to be the same horse and again will come on for the run. Of the outsiders I think Weld's Joailliere still has plenty of scope for improvement, will love the ground and the step back to 7f will suit so I'll take her against the field. I would have liked to have seen more from Onenightidreamed in the Irish Lincoln to consider him and Flight Risk is more exposed than Joailliere at a similar price. Unfortunately the ground has ruled out the promising Endless Drama.
    As much as I wanted to take on Found she handles the ground and the only one who is anywhere near to her on form is Bocca Baciata who is short enough at 7/2. I could forgive Success Days' Derby run but he was really poor in Germany off a good break and giving weight he's also not appealing.
    Cassells Rock looks well handicapped off 75 after being given what looked to be one of the softest rides of the year in a Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket with a mark of 84. He was poor on his next two runs though so he maybe he's just not that good but it's impossible to know with the Tony Martin yard. If he was trying I think he could take some beating but who knows and I don't like anything else so I'll leave the race alone.
    The concluding maiden is a cracker with the big Derby mover US Army Ranger making his debut but the Weld horse is also highly rated and has been smashed in tonight. The Coolmore second string also looks promising and there's really nothing I fancy so I'll watch with interest.
    3.15 Curragh - Mr Right @ 20/1 Paddy Power
    3.50 Curragh - Joailliere @ 10/1 William Hill
  5. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Sunday Racing - Inc. The Curragh   
    Not the best card to punt at the Curragh tomorrow but it's certainly interesting with Found returning as well as Derby mover US Army Ranger set to make his debut. Nothing stands out in the opening 2 maidens at the prices. 
    In the 3rd race Master Speaker has to have a good chance with Ryan Moore booked as he got no sort of run the last day and was sure to go very very close. However he's only 2lbs better off with Bubbly Bellini and 1lb better off with Club Wexford so 4/1 is short enough for me. I preferred Mr Right at 20/1. He's progressed nicely on the all weather over the winter culminating with a 2nd in a race working out well. He has to prove himself on turf but he was tried over a variety of trips last season and probably not showing much so he just looks an improved horse this time around. Still lightly raced there's still scope for improvement off 71.
    The Gladness Stakes looks full of horses who aren't going to run to form between Sruthan who doesn't run to his best twice in a row, the O'Brien trio who are going to need the run and Gordon Lord Byron who doesn't look to be the same horse and again will come on for the run. Of the outsiders I think Weld's Joailliere still has plenty of scope for improvement, will love the ground and the step back to 7f will suit so I'll take her against the field. I would have liked to have seen more from Onenightidreamed in the Irish Lincoln to consider him and Flight Risk is more exposed than Joailliere at a similar price. Unfortunately the ground has ruled out the promising Endless Drama.
    As much as I wanted to take on Found she handles the ground and the only one who is anywhere near to her on form is Bocca Baciata who is short enough at 7/2. I could forgive Success Days' Derby run but he was really poor in Germany off a good break and giving weight he's also not appealing.
    Cassells Rock looks well handicapped off 75 after being given what looked to be one of the softest rides of the year in a Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket with a mark of 84. He was poor on his next two runs though so he maybe he's just not that good but it's impossible to know with the Tony Martin yard. If he was trying I think he could take some beating but who knows and I don't like anything else so I'll leave the race alone.
    The concluding maiden is a cracker with the big Derby mover US Army Ranger making his debut but the Weld horse is also highly rated and has been smashed in tonight. The Coolmore second string also looks promising and there's really nothing I fancy so I'll watch with interest.
    3.15 Curragh - Mr Right @ 20/1 Paddy Power
    3.50 Curragh - Joailliere @ 10/1 William Hill
  6. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Tedthewolf in Doncaster Saturday (Inc. Lincoln H'cap )   
    Get in. Sorry for the lack of a preview!
  7. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Blazing Bailey in Doncaster Saturday (Inc. Lincoln H'cap )   
    I've taken a chance on Secret Brief, Farlow and Heavens Guest ew. You got to love the Fahey horses this time of year and I can see them all going well despite being high enough in the weights.
  8. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to Tedthewolf in Doncaster Saturday (Inc. Lincoln H'cap )   
    2.15 donny~DONNCHA 16/1 e/w  top weight has  the class to go very close looks a very decent e/w chance 5 places goes on any ground and a  mile is fine. Bottom weight BIG TIME 50/1  is way over price  can go well for Dandy with Franny booked to get the leg up!
  9. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to richard-westwood in Monday Racing   
    My ratings for this race 
    Black spot on   98.86
    Angus  98.84
    Just cause   98.79 
    I think the top two look really good value ...Angus is 11/1 best now and I think just cause could be dangerous too at 20/1 although he may be a bit novice for this so ew top two looks the best bet ...good luck 
    3pts ew Angus 11/1 sj   3pts ew black spot on 33/1 bet365
  10. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from richard-westwood in Monday Racing   
    3.00 Cork - Shanghai Beauty @ 7/1 Betfair
    Very interesting opener at Cork with 2014 Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint winner Bobby's Kitten lining up for Weld in a Listed race. Can't see any betting angles though with questions about the ground for him and who knows how much ability Gordon Lord Byron retains. The favourites look solid in the 2.25 so my only bet on the card is Shanghai Beauty. Backed this one last week at the Curragh and was a bit disappointing after being so well supported in the build up. She traveled well enough though and maybe found the 6f at the Curragh a bit stiff as her best form is over 5f and at an easy 6f at Cork. She's been dropped a further 2lbs and will love the ground so I'll give her another chance on the flat 5f course at Cork.
    3.30 Fairyhouse - Aengus e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 & Black Spot On e/w @ 33/1 Bet365
    Aengus had back problems at the end of last season and although Meade said they sorted it his poor form continued into this year. He was good the last day though in a competitive looking race so maybe he's finally over the problems and can progress especially now back up in trip. Have to say I'm surprised Black Spot On has been dropped to 119 after a string of solid efforts over hurdles which culminated in an 8L defeat by Dedigout in a Grade 2 at the Fairyhouse festival last year. He hasn't been seen over hurdles since and has flopped over fences but that's not a big surprise as a flat bred and after his run on this card last year I'm sure this has been the target for a while.
  11. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to jayalexander in Taking advantage of handicap marks   
    Thanks. I see it as a logical system and it's still very raw - lots more can be done to the criteria and I feel it would be interesting to follow the horses progress as their mark improves. Sadly I don't possess the patience to do the last bit just yet, but if you have any suggestions do let me know.
  12. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to DanV89 in Haydock Wednesday 23rd   
    Cheers for this one mate!!
  13. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Monthly Naps Comp, Wednesday 23rd March 2016   
    3.30 Haydock - Some Buckle @ 11/4 Ladbrokes
    Deadly Sting and Daveron come here off the back of wins and can possibly improve further but the form of those races hasn't worked out so you have to question whether they're on good marks. The horse I like is Paul Nicholls' Some Buckle. This Brookhouse pointer has always been a chaser in the making and has been waiting for this ground all season. He disappointed last time on his debut over fences but that was heavy ground and he has been dropped 2lbs for that. I'm sure he's better than 133 and I would be surprised if he doesn't improve significantly on his first run on spring ground for the yard.
  14. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Haydock Wednesday 23rd   
    One I like tomorrow which I posted in the Nap topic. 5/2 still very fair. Best of luck mate.
     
     
  15. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Blazing Bailey in Cheltenham Lessons   
    Also when you're getting enhanced places you nearly always beat the BSP on the place part of each way bets. That's another reason why you shouldn't be afraid to back a few in a big handicap as you can get good value on the place part of the bet as some cover.
  16. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat Thread   
    Well he recently finished 2nd over 28f so trip isnt an issue and comp has obviuosly rated that form as very strong in relation to this race ...average winner is 8 yr old though ...hes only 5 ....it would be like a 7 yr old winning the grand national ....but computer has him about 4-5 lengths clear at mo ...hes got to get in first so ill watch and see ...cant see his price falling much cos his form isnt that obvious 
  17. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from richard-westwood in Racing Chat Thread   
    Trip must be an issue. Surely 5 year olds don't want 3m 5f?
  18. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Tipsterix in Monthly Naps Comp, Sunday 20th March 2015   
    3.30 Downpatrick - The Way It Works @ 10/1 William Hill
    This one has been running around maiden hurdles at the back and could be very well treated off 95 particularly when looking at his bumper form. He won two bumpers and was thought highly enough to contest a listed bumper at Sandown and the booking of Davy Russell is a big plus. This looks a really poor race and could possibly be thrown in off this mark.
  19. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to robertob in Curragh - 20th March   
    Pretty good opening card to be honest. I'm really excited, looking forward to drive down later. Fingers crossed it stays dry. 
    Stenographer is the Bolger one who arsenal called out who cost a staggering $450.000 as a yearling. Could be the right type for this race actually, if he acts on the ground. 
    Interesting to see a first So You Think son as well. Runs in the opening maiden but shouldn't have a chance. But those SYT sons I've seen on photos from Australia all loked very much like daddy. So keen to see if Cosy Club is the same here. 
    I'm looking forward to see quite a couple of others today too: Fluff, Joailliere, Awtaad, Verbosity, Ashraf, Onenightidreamed & Embiran, to name a few. And I have a sneaky feeling Claudio Monteverdi who runs in the last for O'Brien could be a good one.
    ------------
    2.10 – 5f Maiden: Jim Bolger won this one on a number of occasions in the past, most notably with Dawn Approach. But the year before his Whip Rule was successful, and that is noteworthy because Intensely Focussed hails from the same family and is therefore not surprisingly the favourite here.

    Other individuals to keep an eye on are Terrific Feeling for trainer Michael O’Callaghan, who won this last year. This son of Sir Prancealot has a bit of speed on his side, so could go well. Kieren Fallon is on board. He’s the retained rider of the O’Callaghan yard this season. Prendergast’s Tawaleef and Weld’s Tilly Trotter can go close.

    2.40 – 6f Maiden: I’m most intrigued by Jim Bolger trained Stenographer who cost a staggering $450.000 as a yearling. Could be the right type for this race. Though it’s interesting that Richard Fahey brings over the 90 rated Paddy Power, who’s got some fine maiden form from to his name. Also an intriguing contender is The Moore Factor who finished runner-up at Galway with plenty of promise on his sole start.

    3.15 – 6f Handicap: Open enough race where favourite Laganore has excellent form in the book yet appears short enough in the betting given he drops markedly in trip and is going to race on really soft ground for the first time.Richard Fahey’s Patrick is an intriguing runner if he acts on the ground.

    For a huge price I like to call out Deeds Not Words. Bottom of the weighs, races off a nice low mark, but should enjoy the return to 6 furlongs and has won on soft ground before. Far from disgraced in his last starts at Dundalk. 20/1 is huge.

    3.50 – 1m Park Express Stakes: Fair to say Devonshire is the one to beat. She sets a high standard given her 3rd place in last years 1000 Guineas. Her win record isn’t all that positive though. In fact she never won over a mile, though the going is to her advantage.

    Joailliere hasn’t been seen since she bombed out in the Irish 1000 Guineas. However she looked very talented when winning a Gowran Park maiden on her debut and she might be the type that gets better with age.

    Such a late bloomer could be Aiden O’Brien’s Fluff as well. She’s had only one career start, as she produced a stunning turn of foot at Navan last year. She can be anything but is certainly an exciting. prospect. At 6/1 I like her a lot.

    From the bigger prices I feel you can’t fully rule out Queen Blossom. Lightly raced, she looked a scopey sort last year, who appreciates cut in the ground. She surely showed some promise in her two starts.20/1 is too big.

    4.25 – 7f Handicap: An intriguing contest with exciting Awtaad leading the betting. The son of Cape Cross looked excellent when winning a 7f maiden last season and subsequently was talked up as a potential Derby horse. In fact he has an entry for the big one in June, so it’s slightly surprising to see him starting his campaign in a handicap.

    Albeit it’s a deep one which provides a really tough test. Top weight Awtaad won’t have it all his own way here. Johnny Murtagh’s Newsman is a nice Makfi colt, whereas Ger Lyons’s Roderic O’connor gelding Mint Chai is anotherone worth mentioning.

    The biggest challenge could come from a filly though. It took Verbosity a while but the penny finally dropped at Cork in October on her handicap debut. In soft conditions she was able to produce a stunning change of gear and her revised mark is probably on the lenient side. She looks like a filly that’ll do better with age anyway. At 9/1 she’s the one I put up against the classy favourite.

    4.55 – 1m Irish Lincoln: A hot renewal where Dermot Weld’s Ashraf looks the class act. The four year old is still unexposed but looked a Group winner in the making last season. Although a mark of 97 is quite a tough task to overcome.

    There are plenty of alternatives. Cailin Mor was an impressive winner when last seen in Cork and an 6lb raise might be lenient. Then there is last years Lincoln winner Onenightidreamed. Still lightly raced, he won both his starts in 2015, including the Lincoln and followed up with a Group 3 success. He loves the soft ground but has a huge mark to overcome. Nonetheless at 11/1 he’s a tick overpriced in my book.

    Two big prices I also like are Vivat Rex and Lady Giselle. The latter one is 4lb out of the weights but is a real soft ground horse who has a pretty good record over 1m too. Vivat Rex in contrast isn’t quite sure to appreciate the going but is generally unexposed on turf and drops to a fair mark after a pipe opener at Dundalk for new connections earlier this month. Both are 40/1 shots.

    5.25 – 1m Maiden: Could we see some future stars in this field? Favourite Embiran could be one. He finished extremely eye-catchingly on his debut and sole start in 2015. Aiden O’Brien’s Bravery is not one to underestimate. He ran on well in a 7f maiden when runner-up behind Awtaad. He looked green but clearly talented that day.

    Stable mate Claudio Monteverdi was absolutely clueless on his debut last year but shaped very well in the finish and might be an even better prospect than Bravery I feel. Stellar Mass sets a good standard as he was only a lengths beaten 4th in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes last season.

  20. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from robertob in Curragh - 20th March   
    Very good card at the Curragh to start the flat season. First two races I've nothing but in the 3.15 I think Shanghai Beauty is a good bet. Had a good 2 year old campaign which probably got her a poor mark but she gradually improved throughout the year culminating in a good 3rd on her handicap debut. She's been dropped 4lbs for that surprisingly, will love the ground and Condon has his runners pretty straight first time out so 14/1 looks good. Laganore was really impressive at Leopardstown but might need this and drops down 2f in trip which doesn't look ideal. Another horse from that race Club Wexford is interesting. He lost 8L at the start but stayed on strongly and was beaten just over 3L in the end. Generously dropped 5lbs he looks on a good mark but again the drop 2f in trip doesn't look ideal.

    In the 3.50 we've got a competitive looking Group 3. Devonshire sets the standard but I think she might be exposed to more improving types. Queen Catrine is also quite smart but I reckon the ground will be too slow for her. Joailliere went off 10/1 in the 1000 Guineas on her 2nd start and the ground is ideal but she's got to step up on that and isn't much of a price although she's drifting this morning. Fluff can be taken on first time out for O'Brien so I like Glamorous Approach at 7/1. This one won a Listed race last time at Newmarket over 10f and has been talked up as an Oaks filly. She drops to a mile here but I remember Aidan saying soft ground at the Curragh is more like 10f which might be a bit of an exaggeration but it is certainly a stiff test of stamina. Bolger has his string ready first time out and has two others in here who will hopefully set a nice gallop.

    The 4.25 is a cracking handicap. Awtaad won a good looking maiden but he beat a first time out O'Brien horse who may have needed it and is short enough in a good race when he might come on for the run. Theodorico has classic entries and Bolger says he didn't like the cheekpieces last time when he narrowly won a handicap at Leopardstown. He was smashed in that day and is interesting but I just preferred Weld's Party Angel. She only won a Dundalk maiden last time but it has worked out well and she looks like she could be better than 76. We all know about Weld this time of year and 12/1 looks decent.

    In the Lincoln I like Onenightidreamed. Won this last year and improved again to win a Group 3. Probably not the best Group 3 and a bit concerning that he was only seen twice last year as a 4 year old but his trainer says he has to have it soft which might be the reason. He's still progressive and is 3 wins from 5 so looks a good play at a double figure price.

    The last maiden is another cracking race but the Weld horse looks short enough with some really promising types behind him in the betting.
    Selections:
    3.15 - Shanghai Beauty @ 14/1 William Hill
    3.50 - Glamorous Approach @ 7/1 William Hill
    4.25 - Party Angel @ 14/1 Betvictor
    4.55 - Onenightidreamed e/w @ 11/1 Betvictor
  21. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to Trotter in Curragh - 20th March   
    I also used to get excited about the opening 2yo maiden.......the first 2yo race of the season. Even so it has a good record of throwing up good horses who go on to run in group races. Dawn Approach won it in 2012
    I've just had a quick look and my eye is drawn to 'Tilly Trotter'.......
  22. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to Trotter in Curragh - 20th March   
    woah........this has crept up under the radar !
    I wasn't aware of this until just now
    A few years ago when I used to concentrate on the higher end Flat races I used to get unfeasibly excited by the Park Express Stakes (group 3)........I'd make big notes on all the runners, past trends, think about how to record info about the race and the horses that ran in it..........with the intention of doing the same for all group races
    That used to last two or three weeks until I realised how much time and work was involved, then I'd give up..........
  23. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Curragh - 20th March   
    Very good card at the Curragh to start the flat season. First two races I've nothing but in the 3.15 I think Shanghai Beauty is a good bet. Had a good 2 year old campaign which probably got her a poor mark but she gradually improved throughout the year culminating in a good 3rd on her handicap debut. She's been dropped 4lbs for that surprisingly, will love the ground and Condon has his runners pretty straight first time out so 14/1 looks good. Laganore was really impressive at Leopardstown but might need this and drops down 2f in trip which doesn't look ideal. Another horse from that race Club Wexford is interesting. He lost 8L at the start but stayed on strongly and was beaten just over 3L in the end. Generously dropped 5lbs he looks on a good mark but again the drop 2f in trip doesn't look ideal.

    In the 3.50 we've got a competitive looking Group 3. Devonshire sets the standard but I think she might be exposed to more improving types. Queen Catrine is also quite smart but I reckon the ground will be too slow for her. Joailliere went off 10/1 in the 1000 Guineas on her 2nd start and the ground is ideal but she's got to step up on that and isn't much of a price although she's drifting this morning. Fluff can be taken on first time out for O'Brien so I like Glamorous Approach at 7/1. This one won a Listed race last time at Newmarket over 10f and has been talked up as an Oaks filly. She drops to a mile here but I remember Aidan saying soft ground at the Curragh is more like 10f which might be a bit of an exaggeration but it is certainly a stiff test of stamina. Bolger has his string ready first time out and has two others in here who will hopefully set a nice gallop.

    The 4.25 is a cracking handicap. Awtaad won a good looking maiden but he beat a first time out O'Brien horse who may have needed it and is short enough in a good race when he might come on for the run. Theodorico has classic entries and Bolger says he didn't like the cheekpieces last time when he narrowly won a handicap at Leopardstown. He was smashed in that day and is interesting but I just preferred Weld's Party Angel. She only won a Dundalk maiden last time but it has worked out well and she looks like she could be better than 76. We all know about Weld this time of year and 12/1 looks decent.

    In the Lincoln I like Onenightidreamed. Won this last year and improved again to win a Group 3. Probably not the best Group 3 and a bit concerning that he was only seen twice last year as a 4 year old but his trainer says he has to have it soft which might be the reason. He's still progressive and is 3 wins from 5 so looks a good play at a double figure price.

    The last maiden is another cracking race but the Weld horse looks short enough with some really promising types behind him in the betting.
    Selections:
    3.15 - Shanghai Beauty @ 14/1 William Hill
    3.50 - Glamorous Approach @ 7/1 William Hill
    4.25 - Party Angel @ 14/1 Betvictor
    4.55 - Onenightidreamed e/w @ 11/1 Betvictor
  24. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Jimmy2shoes in Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase - Friday 18th   
    Devastated with that result as I just love Cue Card. I wasn't completely happy with him going around but he was tanking down the hill when the race was hotting up.
  25. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from richard-westwood in Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase - Friday 18th   
    I'm actually sick that Vautour didn't line up in the Gold Cup.
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