** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd muttley, 3rd Burnley Joe **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st MrJol, 2nd buga00, 3rd glavintoby, 4th Boulder5111, 5th bobsyerunkle **
** November Nap's Competition Result: 1st andellio, 2nd Saddlesore, 3rd bymatrix, 4th MrJol KO Cup: DonnyFlyer, Most Winners: Astleavista**
arsenalfh got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in Frankel's Foals
My mate doesn't think they'll train on and he has a point I think. They all seem to be very precocious winning first time out and have been a bit disappointing when upped in class. In his favour a few of his have improved going up in trip which gives you hope of them improving with age.
We'll see anyway!
arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Frankel's Foals
Trouble is with anything connected to Frankel is that the pressure is on the trainer to get them ready earlier than maybe would be ideal.
Lets not forget Frankel really improved at 3 and i just hope they dont tail off too early and that some have been given time to mature properly.
Next year will be very interesting, hope to see some Nathaniel youngsters too!
arsenalfh reacted to allen29 in ipredict - Football statistical predictions
Yeah, regarding Location I have 11 location categories. But you should also use other factors, such as: what body part was used, if it was assisted or not, the method of assist, if it was a set piece or not, was the team leading or trailing, was the team even in terms of players on the pitch or in inferiority/superiority. The more context you provide, the better. You can find all of these in the text commentaries.
arsenalfh reacted to allen29 in ipredict - Football statistical predictions
Last selections +1.26 pts from 45 bets
Overall: +43.79 pts from 379 bets (11.5% yield)
Since new model: +50.66 pts from 131 bets (38.67% yield)
@arsenalfh Thanks. I get my shot locations from opta text commentary. You can get it from media services that use this data. Some options are: onefootball, espn, and bbc. Go to the live ticker tab. You will have then to use some regular expressions to extract the shot location from texts. They are not numerical coordinates, but categorical variables...but they still do a good job. And yes, I have developed my own version of XG which differs slightly from the traditional one. But XG is just one component, I use also other factors.
arsenalfh got a reaction from allen29 in ipredict - Football statistical predictions
I'm very interested in analysing sport using statistics and your work is excellent. I've messed around with xG inputting shots manually from Stat Zone into this system but it takes time and obviously there may be slight errors as I'm using my eyes to input the shot locations. Where do you get your shot location data if you don't mind me asking? And have you developed your own xG system?
Great work and best of luck for the future.
arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Monthly Nap Competition - Friday 9th Sep 2016
5.35 Down Royal - Twist Of Magic @ 13/2 Stan James
I think Twist Of Magic has been underrated a bit in this race. He was behind Joyce Compton last time but was further back than ideal running keen off a slow pace. They should go faster today and a 4lb swing in the weights gives him a chance of reversing the form. Duck Egg Blue and Noble Intention were the ones I really wanted to take on at the top of the market. The former looked as if he won a really poor race on heavy ground last time while Lyons and Keane think that the latter has been poorly treated by the handicapper according to his blog. For that reason a 10lb claimer takes the ride so he doesn't shoulder top weight and Keane switches to Twist Of Magic which is another positive for my selection.
arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Racing Post Ratings
Weight adjusted, the debut was in a Group 3 contest and was just over 8 lengths behind a horse rated 105 (OR).
Its last run was in a weak maiden and could only manage 3rd to a horse rated 77 (OR).
As far as i'm a ware the winner gets a rating and the others are weight adjusted and also adjusted for the distance beaten.
arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Monthly Nap Competition - Wednesday August 17th
6.50 Killarney - Erysimum e/w @ 12/1 BetVictor
Interesting Listed race here with Air Vice Marshall heading the betting. I can take him on though as he didn't build on his Guineas 4th when flopping in the Irish equivalent and hasn't been since. He wears a tongue tie off a 3 month break so looks as if they've had some issues with him. Assume is an inconsistent type so she's hard to recommend but I think Erysimum still looks progressive and may be able to place at least with a win not out of the question if Air Vice Marshal and Asume don't bounce back to their best.
arsenalfh reacted to robertob in Friday Racing
2.50 Wolverhampton: Tulip Dress @ 6/1 VC
Big chance for the only three year old in this race to add to his sole course and distance success. Trainer Anthony Carson does well in these type of races at the Wolverhampton Tapeta particularly this season and has found another excellent opportunity to score.
3.10 Brighton: Onehelluvatouch @ 9/1 Ladbrokes
Lightly raced three year old who caught the eye on his handicap debut at Lingfield. Overcame wide draw and made the pace, was halfway through taken on for the lead but hit the front again turning for home just to run out of steam toward the end. Better ground is likely to help here and the handicapper gives her a chance. A useful 3lb claimer is booked too. Trainer Philip Hide is very successful at Brighton, particularly with three years olds in Handicaps, so bringing this intriguing filly here looks significant.
4.40 Brighton: Port Lairge @12/1 Ladbrokes
Trainer John Gallagher does really well in Brighton Handicaps over the year and has Michael Murphy booked for the ride on four times course winner Port Lairge. Jockey and trainer have enjoyed a fruitful partnership in the last years during Murphy's time as an apprentice but there is no sign that this success will dry up any time soon. Port Lairge usually runs very well at Brighton, having been placed in half of all his runs over today's trip. Down to a workable mark, he is expected to run well.
6.40 Newmarket: Jupiter Light @ 5/2 Ladbrokes
Hot maiden but Gosden's colt stands out with Dettori booked. Well bred for this trip and expected to be ready for the job on hand right now. By Lonhro who was an excellent juvenile, out of Fantasia who was a pattern winner over 7f in her debut season - trainer Gosden often introduced successfully those types over the years.
arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Thursday Racing
5.45 Leopardstown - Lancaster Bomber e/w @ 8/1 Bet365
Some useful types in here but I think the Aidan O'Brien 2nd string is a cracking e/w bet. Donnacha O'Brien takes over in the saddle from his sister which is a plus while the faster ground should really help this War Front colt. With one run under his belt he should improve significantly given the yard and he has a great chance of placing at least.
8.35 Leopardstown - Crocodile Shoes @ 9/2 Coral
This looks a wide open affair and it's tough to rule out any of them. I like the Aidan O'Brien trained Crocodile Shoes though at the prices. The favourite Ex Patriot looks a bit exposed and A Shin Kildare couldn't win a poor Galway maiden when likely laid out for it being from the Weld yard. Crocodile Shoes should improve a ton from the experience and that should put him right in there with a chance.
arsenalfh reacted to richard-westwood in Tuesday Racing
Count of carabass 98.79
Interesting race ....huge support for the fav tithonus here at 7/4 but interesting runner in count of carabass who has same rating but looks poor on paper ....was 6th last time but average of 5 horses that beat him was 64 and he has been dropped to 47!,...as a result....odds 14/1....seems good value to me
Count of carabass 3pts ew 14/1 generally
arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Tuesday Racing
In the first race De Boss Man was a massive drifter on debut and given the fact he got a soft ride and was very slowly out of the stalls he's likely to improve a ton from his debut. O'Callaghan's are also coming on a lot for the experience so he looks the value with the 2nd favourite running no race on his debut. Lyons also throws in a potentially smart prospect but I'll stick with De Boss Man. The 2nd race is competitive and I think the market has the right horses at the top of the betting so I'll stay away.
In the 6.25 I like the favourite Future Icon. You want to be on Lynam's horses in these races and he's been improving recently. Only 4th last time but that form looks pretty strong now and this appears a weaker test while Robbie Downey taking over from Ana O'Brien is another plus. Ottilie looks too short in the 6.55 for me. He was a very good winner last time but he comes up against a 140,000gns improving Godolphin filly who had no chance when 2nd to a horse who stole the race from the front. She's similarly unexposed and may just improve more than Ottilie as a Halford horse having her 2nd run of the season.
The Listed race is tough. Rose De Pierre was really impressive when winning last time and could be anything but Flight Risk and Sruthan in particular are really rock solid Group 3 horses especially in these conditions so no bet at the prices. The 7.55 is poor. I had Korbous backed last time at his beloved Leopardstown but he couldn't get the job done in an awful race when he was backed into 11/2 from 14/1. The market seems to think he'll improve from that effort but I'm not so sure given he seems to be targeted at Leopardstown and was quite a gamble. Sapphirine is very interesting 2nd time out for Murtagh. The owners have already had success sending French horses to him with Peacehaven winning for the 2nd time today after needing his first run. Sapphirine was reportedly a keen horse in France but settled beautifully on his first start for the yard so he may have improved already and stepping back up in trip should suit. Probably my best bet of the day.
In the Group 3 I have Harlequeen backed already but at the current prices she's too short to put up as a selection. She still seems to be improving and is the clear pick on form finishing ahead of Somehow in both Oaks. Channon also seems to do really well when bringing horses over for these events in Ireland. In the final race I think the ground may be too soft for the front two in the betting. Ask Katie was last turning in at Gowran last time but stayed on to take 2nd behind a front runner who looked to have got an easy lead. She's probably better than the bare form there and that was a personal best effort on RPRs at a new trip. Unexposed over 12f and with Chris Hayes taking the ride she's the bet in a weak enough affair.
5.25 Cork - De Boss Man @ 9/4 Bet365
6.25 Cork - Future Icon @ 5/1 Boylesports
6.55 Cork - Indrahar @ 11/4 Bet365
7.55 Cork - Sapphirine @ 5/1 Paddy Power
8.55 Cork - Ask Katie e/w @ 8/1 Bet365
arsenalfh got a reaction from Hit in Monthly Nap Competition - Tuesday July 26th
7.50 Galway - Beau Satchel @ 8/1 SkyBet
Beau Satchel probably would have won the last day if he wasn't being held up so far off a slow gallop. Runs off the same mark tomorrow in the same race he won last year off 78, a 3lb higher mark. Likely being prepped for this, well drawn and looks well handicapped.