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arsenalfh

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  1. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Flat horses moving to hurdles   
    People get excited when top flat horses go jumping but the majority disappoint in reality. This is probably because they're trained to win Classics, not be improving at 6 or 7 years of age. I think Graham is right in saying that lower rated flat horses are the ones that generally improve more going jumping likely due to the fact they're not being trained to peak at 3 and are aimed to improve through handicaps for as long as possible.
    I only learned this recently but the reason flat horses stay further over jumps is because there is something about them being able to get a proper deep breath in while jumping which essentially gives them a little breather. That's why you often hear about Champion bumper horses being stayers, 2 mile flat horses stayers etc.
  2. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Flat horses moving to hurdles   
    People get excited when top flat horses go jumping but the majority disappoint in reality. This is probably because they're trained to win Classics, not be improving at 6 or 7 years of age. I think Graham is right in saying that lower rated flat horses are the ones that generally improve more going jumping likely due to the fact they're not being trained to peak at 3 and are aimed to improve through handicaps for as long as possible.
    I only learned this recently but the reason flat horses stay further over jumps is because there is something about them being able to get a proper deep breath in while jumping which essentially gives them a little breather. That's why you often hear about Champion bumper horses being stayers, 2 mile flat horses stayers etc.
  3. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Tipsterix in Monthly Naps Comp - Thursday Dec 29th   
    3.05 Leopardstown - Exactoris @ 9/1 Bet365
    He was poorly placed the last time but made up a lot of ground from the back and meets Bilko 2lbs better off giving him a good chance of reversing that form. Not sure how Clonalig House is shorter in the betting as well given how far he finished behind him the last day and Stretchingthetruth looks pretty short off that mark on what he's done. William B should do better now handicapping and is also of interest given the trainer.
  4. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Monthly Naps Comp - Thursday Dec 29th   
    3.05 Leopardstown - Exactoris @ 9/1 Bet365
    He was poorly placed the last time but made up a lot of ground from the back and meets Bilko 2lbs better off giving him a good chance of reversing that form. Not sure how Clonalig House is shorter in the betting as well given how far he finished behind him the last day and Stretchingthetruth looks pretty short off that mark on what he's done. William B should do better now handicapping and is also of interest given the trainer.
  5. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Latest Tables - December   
    In situations like these i always think its best to ask yourself it the boot was on the other foot,
    How would you feel, react? It's say's a lot about someone.
    I have said my piece to you CD in private, for the record i think you deliberately gained an unfair advantage and its not within the spirit of the competition. You are right, you have not broken any rules.
    I think have run a fair competition for over 10 years on the PL and i do not favour anyone over anyone else, but will not see this wonderful comp turn into something i'm not proud of and will act accordingly when i see someone thats not right.
    I'm happy to stand down if the majority think this tactic is ok and the last week of the competition turns into a farce every month?
    Let me know.
  6. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Monthly Naps Comp - Thursday Dec 29th   
    3.05 Leopardstown - Exactoris @ 9/1 Bet365
    He was poorly placed the last time but made up a lot of ground from the back and meets Bilko 2lbs better off giving him a good chance of reversing that form. Not sure how Clonalig House is shorter in the betting as well given how far he finished behind him the last day and Stretchingthetruth looks pretty short off that mark on what he's done. William B should do better now handicapping and is also of interest given the trainer.
  7. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to Jimmy2shoes in Cheltenham Friday - 17th March 2017   
    My Daughter has VERY VERY kindly arranged as a Christmas present for me to attend Cheltenham for the Gold Cup  
    Never been and still a little in shock I'll be there on March the 17th 
    It's been on my short bucket list for many many years 
  8. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Pointers for newbie punters   
    Price is everything. You can identify horses that are going to improve, well handicapped, have their ground and so on but if you don't understand the concept of value you'll never win long term. If you're backing an evens shot ask the question if you think this horse has a greater chance of winning than 50%. If you believe he does go for it, if not stay away. You have to ask this question for every horse you back.
  9. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from WinningAdvice in Cheltenham Wednesday - 15th March 2017   
    Betting is a long term game. You can't win all the time. Understand the concept of value.
    Then know all the horse racing basics such as ground, distance, race type and understand how they effect different horses. A lot of my betting is based on trainer angles. Know what trainers improve horses going chasing, what trainers do well in handicaps and so on. You can do the same with jockeys.
    There are some great podcasts on betting such as the Final Furlong Podcast with talk on horse racing and how to bet too. Read columns by Tony Calvin, Paul Kealy, Simon Rowlands, Kevin Blake, Tony Keenan and Rory Delargy as those guys know their stuff and you can learn a lot from them.
    And of course there are plenty of good judges on here too so don't be afraid to ask questions. 
  10. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Cheltenham Tuesday - 14th March 2017   
    Arkle Challenge Trophy
    Altior has been clipped into 2/1 from 3/1 for winning a 2 horse race today!
    I suppose he showed his well being and that he could jump but i'm sure the bookies just squeeze the prices for the sake of it.
    Next time out will be interesting and hopefully some opposition.
    The Arkle market is looking pretty weak this year i think. Min, Yorkhill and Identity Thief are next in the betting.

  11. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Cheltenham Friday - 17th March 2017   
    Gold Cup latest odds after the Betfair Chase;
    By the way Cue Card is 9/1 with Paddy Power to win both the King George and the Gold Cup therefore completing the Jumps Triple Crown.
     

     
  12. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Cheltenham Friday - 17th March 2017   
    Colin Tizzard now has the front 2 in the betting for the Gold Cup. Quite incredible.
  13. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to pulsar12 in Portugal Primeira/Segunda 2016/17   
    Cup game tonight Sporting - Praiense.
    Praiese is from 3rd division, and Sporting are big favourites, but Praiense has an excelent record of winning 8 and draw 2 from the last 10 matches.
    According to news, Sporting is expected to put 2nd line of players as you can look here http://www.zerozero.pt/news.php?id=184378
    As you see Adrien is not expected on start eleven, and many of other players are not regulars. If that eleven is confirmed, I have no problem to bet on Praiense during live match for a short timeframe(next goal, ht outcome...), because is possible that Sporting could turn around the game on late stages with key player substitutions.
    An additional note: there is recent big scandal affecting Sporting president that happened on the last game with arouca. He is accused of provoking and spitting on Arouca president face ( there is public surveilance video that proves it). I don't know how much this will affect today team performance, but in my opinion this president has been degrading Sporting in long-term, with his decisions and attitudes. Video here:
    https://youtu.be/gQW2Z8i1x9I
  14. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Jimmy2shoes in Race Of The Week : Betfair Chase   
    What a performance from Cue Card. Some horse and he obviously badly needed it. Coneygree shaped like he retained plenty of ability too travelling with the same zest as when he won the Gold Cup but was still left trailing.
    Cue Card deserved the Gold Cup last year. Hope he arrives at Cheltenham in the same form.
  15. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in National Hunt Selections - 2016/17   
    I'm very surprised My Tent Or Yours is not well odds on here given the poor opposition. He proved he retains ability when coming off a massive absence to finish 2nd in last years Champion Hurdle and goes incredibly well fresh. He also won the Betfair Hurdle on ground the times suggested was much more testing that the soft description advertised alleviating concerns about the ground. Old Guard is coming back hurdling after a disappointing time novice chasing while Ch'tibello has to find the guts of 20lbs to match the favourites form and Melodic Rendezvous is just not the same horse.
    1.50 Haydock - My Tent Or Yours @ 11/10 Bet365
    Yala Enki is a solid enough favourite in these conditions after being dropped a few pounds and seems to go well off a break. However the price looks about right now and I'm keen to take on the next few in the market. Two Taffs needs to step up, Westren Warrior seems to have stalled in his development and the ground is too testing for Caid Du Berlais. The one that sticks out is the lightly raced Western Cape, an 85k purchase with just 5 runs over hurdles. He was only beaten a neck on his reappearance and winner of that has franked the form and the move to these Fixed Brush obstacles which are based on the French style hurdles could bring more improvement for this former pointer.
    2.25 Haydock - Western Cape @ 18/1 Betway
    Cue Card was disappointing in the Charlie Hall and although he should come on for that I just don't think he's the same horse that ran to an RPR of 180 three times last year. He didn't run with the same zest this time and was fading at the finish unlike when winning pretty comfortably last year. Coneygree is coming back from a bad injury and again can be taken on as he may not be the same. Seeyouatmidnight is on the up but has to improve a lot and you have to be slightly dubious of the form of his last run. Has potential but a short price to make the considerable step up here. I like old boy Silviniaco Conti at the prices. He needs the run and improved a lot from his reappearance last year in this race. I expect him to come on significantly from that and he has a really good record around Haydock posting RPRs of 168, 175, 169 and 173. He's a lot harder to predict these days but he showed at Ascot last year that he still has bundles of ability and if he can post a rating somewhere within those scores he should be bang there with a fair chance in my opinion of Cue Card and Coneygree not running to there best.
    3.00 Haydock (Betfair Chase) - Silviniaco Conti @ 8/1 Bet365
    Disappointing turn out for such a big pot over at Ascot where Vaniteux tops the betting. He's a worthy favourite with the Arkle where he was set to finish 2nd before unseating working out well. He does have an absence to overcome and Some Buckle with fitness on side looks the value play. His jumping hasn't been the best and he blundered badly when going really well last time at Aintree but before that his jumping was excellent and looked much improved. It was no surprise to see him jump so well up to that point after moving to Tom George who is such a good trainer of a chaser and I'm willing to give him another chance as he looks well handicapped off 139.
    3.15 Ascot - Some Buckle @ 6/1 Betfair
  16. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in National Hunt Selections - 2016/17   
    Going to throw my selections up here so I can link my write ups on Twitter and so on. Fingers crossed for a profitable season. 
  17. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from luckypants in Latest Tables - November   
    30 people in profit. Fantastic stuff. 
  18. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from gbettle in Latest Tables - November   
    30 people in profit. Fantastic stuff. 
  19. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from pulsar12 in Portugal Primeira/Segunda 2016/17   
    I have Portuguese family that are all Portistas so I went over to the Classico. Went to the game when I was young in Antas but and the game lived up to all expectations. Great football, unbelievable atmosphere and drama at the end. Unfortunately Porto couldn't hold out. Would definitely recommend any football fan going over for the game at some point and there's plenty to do in both Porto and Lisbon which are both beautiful cities.
    Porto are a funny team. They've looked fantastic at times this season including in the Classico but also completely rubbish going forward. Maybe it's because their attack is very young but if it's just the case of the team needing time to gel I think they can push Benfica for the title.
  20. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Race Of The Week : Betfair Chase   
    Cue Card was disappointing in the Charlie Hall and although he should come on for that I don't know if he'll improve much. I would have thought Tizzard would have had him fairly fit first time out just like he did last year. Short price when there's a chance he's not the same horse. Same goes for Coneygree coming back from a bad injury. Lots of rain in the forecast which goes against Irish Cavalier and Menorah. Gods Own looks as good as ever but he'll have to improve stepping up in trip which he may well do. He stayed on well over 2m 4f at Aintree and after all he was a pointer but any rain will be against him and he jumps right which is a negative particularly stepping up in trip. He'll give away more ground as he has to jump more fences. Outlander, Roi Des Francs and Vezelay look exposed in this class.
    That leaves Seeyouatmidnight and Silviniaco Conti. Both won't mind the rain and I don't think we've seen the best of Seeyouatmidnight yet as he's still lightly raced over fences and probably lost his way a bit towards the end of last season. However he does have a bit to find here so I'm more inclined to side with the old boy Silviniaco Conti at the prices. He needed a run over hurdles last year to get him fit and would have likely needed his reappearance so I expect him to improve from Down Royal. He's a lot harder to predict these days but he showed at Ascot last year that he still has bundles of ability and if there is anyone you want training a horse like this it's Paul Nicholls. He'll likely be the value for me on the day.
  21. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Tipsterix in Monthly Nap Comp - Friday Nov 11th   
    2.05 Cheltenham - O O Seven @ 6/1 Betfair
  22. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to allen29 in ipredict - Football statistical predictions   
    Nope! There was some maintenance and took longer than expected and I didn't have as much time as I hoped to work on it. I'm almost there, should take 1-2 more days until I can make new predictions.
  23. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in Frankel's Foals   
    My mate doesn't think they'll train on and he has a point I think. They all seem to be very precocious winning first time out and have been a bit disappointing when upped in class. In his favour a few of his have improved going up in trip which gives you hope of them improving with age.
    We'll see anyway!
  24. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in The Little Nuggets Thread   
    Watch out for Henry De Bromhead horses having their first run over hurdles or fences. He has more winners than the odds imply at SP over a big sample so it's worth keeping an eye out for horses with that sort of profile. Looks a good angle.
  25. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Following the money?   
    Well if you're beating the Betfair SP you might have a chance of making some money as that value is the most accurate measure of a horse's true chance of winning. However following the money to select a horse that is going to shorten further doesn't sound like a very effective method. Especially when industry prices will already be shorter than the exchange markets close to the off so it will be incredibly hard to tell if the horse will shorten further. I doubt this method would be profitable in the long run but you could give it a go.
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