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arsenalfh

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  1. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from corky in Monthly Naps Comp - Thursday June 22nd   
    6.30 Leopardstown - Theobald @ 11/4 William Hill
    The newcomers Bolger introduces at Leopardstown are usually pretty handy and Theobald is a well bred son of Teofilo with several Group 1 entries. He could take a bit of beating in an ordinary enough looking maiden.
  2. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Festival Fever   
    Royal Ascot - Day 3
    Just another update for later. The going stick reads - stand: 9.1, centre: 8.6, far: 9.0 and going by the first race the track looks fair although no one went down the middle.
    I mentioned Jamie Spencer's record on the straight course yesterday and he's just picked up the ride on Bless Him in the Britannia later over the straight mile. He's 35 actual wins to 21 expected given the odds of the horses he's ridden and is clearly a massive positive to any horse's chance on the straight course. He shaped as if the mile would suit last time despite running keen through inexperience and the bigger field may help him settle better. With Spencer jocked up he's worth a bet at the prices.
    5.00 Ascot - Bless Him 2pts e/w @ 50/1 Sportingbet
  3. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Jimmy2shoes in Festival Fever   
    Royal Ascot - Day 3
    Just another update for later. The going stick reads - stand: 9.1, centre: 8.6, far: 9.0 and going by the first race the track looks fair although no one went down the middle.
    I mentioned Jamie Spencer's record on the straight course yesterday and he's just picked up the ride on Bless Him in the Britannia later over the straight mile. He's 35 actual wins to 21 expected given the odds of the horses he's ridden and is clearly a massive positive to any horse's chance on the straight course. He shaped as if the mile would suit last time despite running keen through inexperience and the bigger field may help him settle better. With Spencer jocked up he's worth a bet at the prices.
    5.00 Ascot - Bless Him 2pts e/w @ 50/1 Sportingbet
  4. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from corky in Festival Fever   
    I usually bet on the nose but a lot of my bets here will be each-way because the bookies will be offering enhanced places and the handicaps will have 4 places at least as well. This puts massive value on the place part of the bet in a lot of cases.
    I like this statistical approach too. I used it in maiden races backing trainers that had good records with newcomers last year and it worked really well. I did well enough from my own judgement in handicaps last year but my profit in those was nearly wiped out by my bets in pattern races strangely enough.
    This season I'm almost betting exclusively through statistical angles. My 4pt bets here are backed by these angles while the 2pt bets are my own judgement.
  5. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to corky in Festival Fever   
    love this, arsenalfh, good luck, will watch with interest, even tho im on the nose better
  6. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from corky in Festival Fever   
    Frustrating day with Rain Goddess being touched off in the last by a Spencer masterclass. I forgot how well he rode the Ascot straight course and the stats back this up.
    Thought Elleval ran well from a bad draw and is one to keep an eye on in the future over a stiff mile on fast ground. No luck with the Ward two year olds but he's got another interesting contender tomorrow.
    Bets: 11
    Profit: -12.05
  7. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from corky in Festival Fever   
    Royal Ascot - Day 1
    Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have the Tuesday at Royal Ascot which is one of the best days racing around and with several firms offering enhanced places it's worth having a couple of bets.
    Ribchester looks tough to beat in the Queen Anne but is a short enough price as a free going horse drawn wide. I can't see Lightning Spear reversing the form but Mutakayyef improved markedly last year culminating in some excellent placed efforts at York behind Postponed where he was slightly hampered and also at Woodbine. He's still relatively lightly raced and looks a good each way bet at the prices with the rest of the field looking distinctly ordinary.
    The Coventry looks a tough race to solve and I have no strong opinion. Similarly in the King's Stand I won't have a bet as I have 2 ante post bets running in Signs Of Blessing and Cotai Glory. The St. James's Palace Stakes sees an interesting match up between the 2000 Guineas first and second. Barney Roy didn't seem to take with Newmarket that day struggling with the undulations and should be more at home here at Ascot. He is also lightly raced and is open to more improvement than Churchill. That being said the Ballydoyle raider is tough horse that always seems to find more when required and is a deservedly short priced favourite. However with little other competition to these two I can't resist an each way bet on Barney Roy who looks good value to finish in the first 3.
    It's hard not to love big field Ascot handicaps and the Ascot Stakes looks an intriguing contest with the top jumps trainers switching codes to have a shot at this big prize. Several look like they have chances but Thomas Hobson looks the most likely winner here for me and is a solid bet at the prices. Irish horses have an outstanding record in British flat handicaps over a mile or further winning 47 times to the 27 expected when you calculate their chance of winning using Betfair SP since 2012.
    Finally we finish with the Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum distance. From what I have seen from Wesley Ward's 2 year olds over here they are all extremely quick but don't stay further than the 5f trip. We saw Lady Aurelia struggle to hold on over 6f in France before getting beaten in the Cheveley Park and like her Acapulco also look all speed as a 2 year old. This is actually backed up in the data albeit over a small sample as Ward doesn't have a single 2 year old winner in Britain over 6f with 1.57 expected. However with 2 year olds in 5f sprints he has a spectacular record with 8 actual wins against 4.3 expected. Although Coolmore's expensive purchase Declarationofpeace has attracted support today, he might just find the Ward 2 year olds a little too precocious and with the latter's record I'll be backing both of his.
    2.30 - Mutakayyef 1pt e/w @ 13/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
    4.20 - Barney Roy 1pt e/w @ 5/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
    5.00 - Thomas Hobson 2pts e/w @ 6/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
    5.35 - Nootka Sound 4pts @ 5/1 Betfair
    5.35 - Elizabeth Darcy 4pts @ 11/1 Betfair
  8. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Festival Fever   
    Decent first day mate
     
  9. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Festival Fever   
    Royal Ascot - Day 1
    Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have the Tuesday at Royal Ascot which is one of the best days racing around and with several firms offering enhanced places it's worth having a couple of bets.
    Ribchester looks tough to beat in the Queen Anne but is a short enough price as a free going horse drawn wide. I can't see Lightning Spear reversing the form but Mutakayyef improved markedly last year culminating in some excellent placed efforts at York behind Postponed where he was slightly hampered and also at Woodbine. He's still relatively lightly raced and looks a good each way bet at the prices with the rest of the field looking distinctly ordinary.
    The Coventry looks a tough race to solve and I have no strong opinion. Similarly in the King's Stand I won't have a bet as I have 2 ante post bets running in Signs Of Blessing and Cotai Glory. The St. James's Palace Stakes sees an interesting match up between the 2000 Guineas first and second. Barney Roy didn't seem to take with Newmarket that day struggling with the undulations and should be more at home here at Ascot. He is also lightly raced and is open to more improvement than Churchill. That being said the Ballydoyle raider is tough horse that always seems to find more when required and is a deservedly short priced favourite. However with little other competition to these two I can't resist an each way bet on Barney Roy who looks good value to finish in the first 3.
    It's hard not to love big field Ascot handicaps and the Ascot Stakes looks an intriguing contest with the top jumps trainers switching codes to have a shot at this big prize. Several look like they have chances but Thomas Hobson looks the most likely winner here for me and is a solid bet at the prices. Irish horses have an outstanding record in British flat handicaps over a mile or further winning 47 times to the 27 expected when you calculate their chance of winning using Betfair SP since 2012.
    Finally we finish with the Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum distance. From what I have seen from Wesley Ward's 2 year olds over here they are all extremely quick but don't stay further than the 5f trip. We saw Lady Aurelia struggle to hold on over 6f in France before getting beaten in the Cheveley Park and like her Acapulco also look all speed as a 2 year old. This is actually backed up in the data albeit over a small sample as Ward doesn't have a single 2 year old winner in Britain over 6f with 1.57 expected. However with 2 year olds in 5f sprints he has a spectacular record with 8 actual wins against 4.3 expected. Although Coolmore's expensive purchase Declarationofpeace has attracted support today, he might just find the Ward 2 year olds a little too precocious and with the latter's record I'll be backing both of his.
    2.30 - Mutakayyef 1pt e/w @ 13/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
    4.20 - Barney Roy 1pt e/w @ 5/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
    5.00 - Thomas Hobson 2pts e/w @ 6/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
    5.35 - Nootka Sound 4pts @ 5/1 Betfair
    5.35 - Elizabeth Darcy 4pts @ 11/1 Betfair
  10. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to Sir Puntalot in Festival Fever   
    Great post.  
  11. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Sir Puntalot in Festival Fever   
    Royal Ascot - Day 1
    Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have the Tuesday at Royal Ascot which is one of the best days racing around and with several firms offering enhanced places it's worth having a couple of bets.
    Ribchester looks tough to beat in the Queen Anne but is a short enough price as a free going horse drawn wide. I can't see Lightning Spear reversing the form but Mutakayyef improved markedly last year culminating in some excellent placed efforts at York behind Postponed where he was slightly hampered and also at Woodbine. He's still relatively lightly raced and looks a good each way bet at the prices with the rest of the field looking distinctly ordinary.
    The Coventry looks a tough race to solve and I have no strong opinion. Similarly in the King's Stand I won't have a bet as I have 2 ante post bets running in Signs Of Blessing and Cotai Glory. The St. James's Palace Stakes sees an interesting match up between the 2000 Guineas first and second. Barney Roy didn't seem to take with Newmarket that day struggling with the undulations and should be more at home here at Ascot. He is also lightly raced and is open to more improvement than Churchill. That being said the Ballydoyle raider is tough horse that always seems to find more when required and is a deservedly short priced favourite. However with little other competition to these two I can't resist an each way bet on Barney Roy who looks good value to finish in the first 3.
    It's hard not to love big field Ascot handicaps and the Ascot Stakes looks an intriguing contest with the top jumps trainers switching codes to have a shot at this big prize. Several look like they have chances but Thomas Hobson looks the most likely winner here for me and is a solid bet at the prices. Irish horses have an outstanding record in British flat handicaps over a mile or further winning 47 times to the 27 expected when you calculate their chance of winning using Betfair SP since 2012.
    Finally we finish with the Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum distance. From what I have seen from Wesley Ward's 2 year olds over here they are all extremely quick but don't stay further than the 5f trip. We saw Lady Aurelia struggle to hold on over 6f in France before getting beaten in the Cheveley Park and like her Acapulco also look all speed as a 2 year old. This is actually backed up in the data albeit over a small sample as Ward doesn't have a single 2 year old winner in Britain over 6f with 1.57 expected. However with 2 year olds in 5f sprints he has a spectacular record with 8 actual wins against 4.3 expected. Although Coolmore's expensive purchase Declarationofpeace has attracted support today, he might just find the Ward 2 year olds a little too precocious and with the latter's record I'll be backing both of his.
    2.30 - Mutakayyef 1pt e/w @ 13/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
    4.20 - Barney Roy 1pt e/w @ 5/2 Bet365 (3 places, 1/4 odds)
    5.00 - Thomas Hobson 2pts e/w @ 6/1 Bet365 (4 places, 1/4 odds)
    5.35 - Nootka Sound 4pts @ 5/1 Betfair
    5.35 - Elizabeth Darcy 4pts @ 11/1 Betfair
  12. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to DanV89 in Racing Chat - Thursday June 8th   
    Had a quick look at the Haydock card today with it being my local track and the lethal combination there that is Kingscote/Dascombe.
     They have Legato (12/1) in the 2.10. Only had 4 runs so far, all maidens and starts handicap life off 66 today.
     First 3 maiden runs were over a mile, and his next run last time was over 1m 2f at Chester when hampered and then stayed on late so even though finished 7th he did hint that might be better over further.
     Handicap debut today stepping up in trip from 1m 2f to 1m 3.5f.
     Chester is obviously a tight track too so I think a fairer, galloping track like Haydock might help.
     That was quite a hot Class 3 maiden at Chester last time too with the winner of that race now rated 88.
     So the combination of the step up in trip, handicap debut, and drop in class could all point to a big run
  13. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in KO Cup Qualifying - Sat June 3rd (Deadline 2pm)   
    Sorry BH I will make sure if I'm in the comp next month to put a reminder on my phone to make selections. I've been very bad recently and understand it's completely unfair on others who want to take part.
  14. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in The Epsom Derby - Saturday June 3rd   
    Derby Preview
    This years Derby looks wide open with 11 horses within 3lbs of each other on RPRs. Cliffs of Moher and Cracksman are worthy favourites as the leading hopes from the two most powerful stables in both Ireland and Britain but they are probably short enough at the moment. Cracksman only just managed to beat Permian, who definitely has improved since then and Cliffs Of Moher's form ties in with that. The other horse priced at single figures is Eminent who ran a disappointing race in the Guineas after winning the Craven at Newmarket. He looked like he will appreciate the step up in trip but like we saw with Rhododendron in today's Oaks, stepping up half a mile is a tough ask and there are plenty of other unexposed types.
    Given the shape of the race I prefer to look at something at a bigger price. The Dante was run in a quick time and out of the bigger priced horses may be the trial to focus on. Permian finished the stronger running the final 3f in 35.4s (Timeform Sectional Debrief) beating Benbatl by 3/4L who's run seemed to peter out finishing the final 3f in 55.77s. On that basis Permian looks the better prospect stepping up the the Derby trip.
    However I think Benbatl is the one that has been overlooked by the market. He's made startling progress this season winning a maiden at Doncaster on his debut before stepping forward to run a good race in the Craven despite running keen in the early stages. Because of that he looked unlikely to be suited to the Dante test over an extended 10f at this early stage of his career but he made another big step forward to finish 2nd that day, taking after so many other sons of Dubawi who progress so well with racing.
    Although there is a light stamina doubt given the way he finished, that may have been because he still showed bits of inexperience in the early stages running a little free. If he makes another step forward tomorrow and the first time hood helps him he may actually see out the Derby trip just fine like his grand dam who was narrowly beaten in the Oaks.
    Back to the hood, interestingly his trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a terrific record when his horses run with that piece of headgear. From 57 runners in a first time hood, 15 have won with an Actual/Expected winners of 1.41. His other runners in a hood run at a healthy 1.11 Actual/Expected winners from 66 runs.
    With all things considered I reckon Benbatl has been overlooked in the market. Although there is a stamina doubt I think he's young horse learning fast and if the hood does the trick I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see him fighting out the finish. At the prices he's worth a shot with SkyBet top price and offering 5 places.
    4.30 Epsom - Benbatl e/w @ 25/1 SkyBet (5 place)
  15. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to Snert in Racing chat-Saturday June 3rd   
    Yeah - and no flat racing on Sunday - again
  16. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to mick bones in Doing doubles with value bets   
    I have cobbled together some random doubles samples from my singles data set, like every other single paired with the one directly after it and another sample set of each bet with the next bet which is 2 bets down the list.  Not very scientific but gives me two random data samples of approx 10,000 doubles bets.  Yes,  varience plays a big part in the results.  With singles alone I was just shy of 30% profit. However first data set of doubles shows profit of 52% with obviously a far inferior strike rate and I do like a good strike rate as part of any betting system. Avg odds for these new data sets is around 22.0   However the other dataset was the other end of the spectrum with profit of 85% !!   So I figure if I were to generate a couple dozen random data sets the returns would converge towards my original estimate.  But with such % margins the skeptic in me tells me I have forgotten to carry the one or some other silly mathematical error.  Bank is going in the predicted direction so that is main thing anyways
  17. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to mick bones in Doing doubles with value bets   
    This should be a simple maths question on probabilities so just checking that I have this right before I go down the wrong road.  I have never been a fan of doubles till I sat and looked at results of my approx 10,000 singles bets
    With average profit of 30% I'm doing better than I expected when starting almost 1yr ago.  Problem is I am running out of options to get any sort of money on as have lost most accounts.  I only do £5 or £10 bets ... but I do a lot of them as you can see and I record everything.
    I have noticed that some bookies will allow me do doubles for up to £5 but singles are limited to less than £1. 
    So if you have a proven method of finding value bets ( and I believe I have that, with avg odds of 5.0 ) then should 2 of these bets in a double produce profits as follows
    Bet A , avg value of 30%
    Bet B, avg value of 30%
    So with doubles avg profit after 10,000 bets would be   1.3 * 1.3  = 1.69  ie 69% profit?    For £1 bet, avg win of first leg = £1.30 and this goes on 2nd leg to compound the % profit .
     
    I can probably get the answer by modifying my spread sheet to pick 10,000 random doubles and check results but as my first guess is you just compound the % profit then I get a 69% profit .. which I like the sound of.
    I understand why bookies like doubles because when you have two -% negative value bets the a double just compounds the % loss long term,  BUT ....... when you have value to the tune of 30% then the bookie is on the wrong side of a 69% value bet when doing doubles ?
  18. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Monthly Naps - Monday May 15th   
    6.40 Killarney - Une Lavandiere @ 6/1 Bet365
  19. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Best Meetings/Festivals   
    I think the Nunthorpe is Friday. Doesn't it go Juddmonte, Yorkshire Oaks, Nunthorpe and then the Ebor?
    That could be a nice trip though.
    Chantilly looks a spectacular setting so I'll have to keep that in mind. Might be worth going while they have the Arc.
  20. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Best Meetings/Festivals   
    I think the Nunthorpe is Friday. Doesn't it go Juddmonte, Yorkshire Oaks, Nunthorpe and then the Ebor?
    That could be a nice trip though.
    Chantilly looks a spectacular setting so I'll have to keep that in mind. Might be worth going while they have the Arc.
  21. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from Snert in Royal Ascot - Ante Post Betting   
    Anyone who has some sort of fancy at bigger prices in this race should get a few quid on ante post I reckon. Can't see the race not cutting up.
    Acapulco is out today at the Curragh so it will be interesting if she shows any improvement going to Ballydoyle. She takes on Ardhoomey who has been improving for Lyons.
    Profitable was smashed yesterday by Signs Of Blessing who I mentioned previously as being underappreciated giving weight over 5f. That's the best piece of sprinting form on offer and Rohaut believes he doesn't properly stay the stiff 6f at Ascot so the King's Stand is the target. Looks worth a bet at 14/1 as I can see him going off half the price on the day.
    3.40 Ascot - Signs Of Blessing @ 14/1 Ladbrokes
  22. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from DanV89 in Royal Ascot - Ante Post Betting   
    Anyone who has some sort of fancy at bigger prices in this race should get a few quid on ante post I reckon. Can't see the race not cutting up.
    Acapulco is out today at the Curragh so it will be interesting if she shows any improvement going to Ballydoyle. She takes on Ardhoomey who has been improving for Lyons.
    Profitable was smashed yesterday by Signs Of Blessing who I mentioned previously as being underappreciated giving weight over 5f. That's the best piece of sprinting form on offer and Rohaut believes he doesn't properly stay the stiff 6f at Ascot so the King's Stand is the target. Looks worth a bet at 14/1 as I can see him going off half the price on the day.
    3.40 Ascot - Signs Of Blessing @ 14/1 Ladbrokes
  23. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Best Meetings/Festivals   
    On the flat you cant beat the York August festival, if you get chance go on the Juddmonte Day, you get to see the Nunthorpe too.
    Its packed out but you can still get a good spot round the paddock and a viewing the race is go too either in one of the many stands or just past the winning post near the paddock.
    Lovely track and always has a good atmosphere
    PS: Ebor day is far too busy with bus trips and punters more interested in getting pissed than watching the racing.
  24. Like
    arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Best Meetings/Festivals   
    I'm looking into possibly heading over to England for one of the festivals this flat season or even just a good day of racing.
    What are your favourite courses or festivals when it comes to view of the track, access to the parade ring, facilities and just the experience in general?
  25. Like
    arsenalfh reacted to Snert in Royal Ascot - Ante Post Betting   
    I don't usually bet ante post but after reading your post I've just had a small bet on Goldream @ 16-1. 
    He ran very well last week in a good time and as long as the ground is on the firm side for Ascot I think he is likely to race and he should have a very good chance. 
    I think that Marsha and Washington DC could also be involved if they run but 6-1 is not tempting as an ante post bet for Marsha while Washington DC looks better value at this stage at 14-1 but I'll stick with Goldream.
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