** December Poker League Result : 1st muttley, 2nd LIKE2FISH, 3rd kevsul **
** Football Tipster Competition Result : 1st Like A Roughie, 2nd Paperclip, 3rd Kingdom for, 4th Alastair, 5th Gray306 **
** December Naps Competition Result: 1st BARNSLEYCHOP, 2nd SADDLESORE, 3rd ZIDANE123, 4th ADAMROSS. KO Cup Winner BBBC, Most Winners: JCW **
arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Thursday Racing
3 jump meetings and unfortunately all three are ruined by the ground. Best race of the day is at Kelso where Top Notch should get his head back in front but i'm old enough to remember Zaynar getting beta in this race at 1/12 a few years ago. Unioniste goes here instead of the National trial on Saturday in a later race and i hope he wins. He showed much more enthusiasm last time out and looked ready to strike again.
Leicester is Heavy, even on the chase course which means the hurdle track must have been flooded! Believe me i used to live near the course and the Chase track is always much, much better than the hurdles course. Its clay and on the inside near the golf course its drainage is useless. I see Nicholls sends one up for the Class 3 handicap and Stiletto is now a 5/4 shot. Fair race and at first glance liked Silver Roque but i think this will be a prep for a race on better ground later on.
The Nap goes at Fontwell. I wouldn't normally back such a horse. First time out after coming over from Ireland, the form is hard to weigh up but reading between the lines i really think this horse is a class above this lot. Now it may not be today that he struts his stuff but worth a bet in a terrible race.
Nap: 440 Fontwell: Claire Pet 15/8 Stan James / BetVictor
Irish import running for Dr Richard Newland for the first time. Was rated 109 after a maiden hurdle victory but career went on stall after trying fences. Back over hurdles this season and ran two very promising races before being sold to the Doctor. Has found a good opportunity here, likes the ground, stays well and has put a 10b claimer on just to make sure. The danger is the fav Lee Side Lady who has won here before and was second last time at Fakenham in a poor race.
Pot= Fontwell 12 bets
arsenalfh got a reaction from BillyHills in Monthly Naps Comp, ''Saturday'' 13th Feb 2016
3.35 Newbury - Agrapart e/w @ 22/1 SkyBet
Hurdle form all working out really well including when 3rd behind Yorkhill in the Tolworth even though he was essentially 5lbs wrong at the weights with Lizzie unable to use her claim. That was a really good run and he was only raised 3lbs for that and the move to handicap company which promises to be run at a strong pace should really suit as this horse is quite keen. Taking a lead off one of his competitors here should really help him settle.
arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in Monthly Naps Comp, ''Friday'' 12th Feb 2016
To be honest its simply because Betfair Sportsbook wasn't around when we drew up the rules and we couldn't check the validity of prices on Betfair alone.
The main reason we don't use some bookies is purely down to the unreliability of the prices on odds checker which almost everyone uses. Boylesports used to be a pain in the arse at one time. The prices were never updated on odds checker and poeple were taking the wrong prices all the time. (I check winning bets to see if the price was available at the time of post).
We will look at this issue at the end of the month although i do think we offer plenty of alternatives.
arsenalfh reacted to beaker1 in Cheltenham 2016 - general chat
Hope no one minds but thought it might be a good idea to open a general chat thread where we could put up anything within reason regarding the festival,like stats trends,whispers ect:
I was sent an email containing a pdf for cheltenham,In the email it states that its 100% free to share with others,The link is below
arsenalfh reacted to Aidymac in Queen Mother Champion Chase - Wednesday 16th
Sprinter Sacre is nowhere near the force of old and on this seasons' evidence Sire De Grugy is in the same boat, Un De Sceaux jumped poorly at Ascot and still beat him convincingly. Dodging Bullets had no prep run, so can't have him. Deffo agree that the each-way bet of the race is Special Tiara and I think that horse will fill 2nd place, but Un De Sceaux looks a different class to this field. We can try pick holes in his form but the fact remains he would be 16/16 only for two falls.
arsenalfh got a reaction from beaker1 in Queen Mother Champion Chase - Wednesday 16th
That's a shame about Traffic Fluide as he was looking like a good e/w bet to me. Un De Sceaux was fantastic at Ascot but he had his ground that day and he has to be taken on if Cheltenham gets the usual decent ground. Special Tiara looks the one to be with at the current prices as I think he has the beating of both Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy. He beat Sprinter by 6L at Sandown last year and I don't believe Sprinter has really come on from then as he beat nothing at Cheltenham and his win at Kempton was in a poor time. If Special Tiara wasn't turned sideways at Sandown he would have beaten Sire De Grugy as well on ground far too soft for him.
Ok he was behind Dodging Bullets last year but he also prefers cut in the ground and I can see him bolting up at Newbury this weekend in ideal conditions and be too short for Cheltenham on better ground as a result.
arsenalfh reacted to Blazing Bailey in Cheltenham Champion Hurdle 2016
Well that makes him more interesting to me, because his form on better ground isn't as good as his form on soft however he has had less opportunity to show his best form on better ground.
You make a good point about running styles as I completely agree that Nicholls Canyon would be best from the front (I can't underestimate how gutted I was when he took a lead in last year's Neptune) but like you say it won't happen and if he stayed alongside Faugheen I again think it would tee things up for a closer to pick up the pieces once more.
arsenalfh got a reaction from Blazing Bailey in Cheltenham Champion Hurdle 2016
Identity Thief travels like a horse who will appreciate quicker ground I think.
I never liked Faugheen and thought he was beating nothing so I had Nichols Canyon backed e/w from the start of the season. I thought he would be dodgy under pressure but he really swatted aside Nichols Canyon the last day when he came upsides at the 2nd last. It was a fantastic display but you could argue Nichols Canyon was still feeling his run at Christmas and Arctic Fire also scoped bad at Christmas so he also possibly wasn't at his best. I also didn't like the way Townend never even attempted to make the running when Nichols Canyon clearly is a horse who jumps superbly and can put his rivals under pressure from the front.
I think I put it up in the Cheltenham chat thread but I also backed Identity Thief e/w after the Ryanair at Christmas. He traveled all over Nichols Canyon and will appreciate the sounder surface more than him. Also he's massively progressive having only hitting the track for the first time just over a year ago and could well improve past him.
I don't think Faugheen really has a chance of being beaten unless Nichols Canyon makes the running like he did in the Morgiana. Unfortunately the yard won't allow the pair to fight for the lead and Nichols Canyon will likely be forced to track Faugheen which clearly doesn't suit the horse when he jumps so well from the front. My win bets aren't looking good but I think Nichols Canyon and Identity Thief are the two next best and hopefully will fill the places. With the potential for more improvement Identity Thief still looks a good e/w bet or a nice price in the w/o Faugheen market.
arsenalfh reacted to Tedthewolf in Racing Chat Thread
Trainer took money for horse that did not exist
BY TONY MCFADDEN1:00PM 5 FEB 2016 Australia: Trainer Michael John Day is facing jail for dishonestly obtaining financial advantage by deception after he was paid more than A$25,000 (£12,500) in training fees for a horse that did not exist.
Day was paid fees over a six-year period by a client who believed her mare, Jag One, had had a foal and was in training under Day's care. This foal did not exist, however.
Day informed his client on January 7, 2009 that a foal - to be named Miriyan - had been born, and he received monthly training fees from October 1, 2012, until January 13, 2015. He passed off another foal as ‘Miriyan' on the occasions that his client came to see her horse.
Asked by his client when Miriyan might run, Day claimed that the horse was either suffering from illness or was injured.
When Day then claimed that Miriyan had been sent to a veterinary unit in Kilmore, the client contacted the facility only to find that no horse of that name was there.
Suspicious, the client got in touch with New South Wales Harness Racing who conducted an investigation which led to the disqualification of Day from the industry for ten years.
Day was arrested on October 20, 2015, and he offered a full admission of his guilt when interviewed. He is to be sentenced on March 16, and has been warned that he faces a custodial sentence.
Day's solicitor Tim McGrath, quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald, said: "He realises now that when the vet told him there was no foal that he should have told the client."
arsenalfh reacted to joeblitz in Cheltenham Festival Trials - Updated Jan 25th
I've been very busy for the past 18 months or so and just a fleeting visit to give you my thoughts on Cheltenham.
Impossible for me to look beyond Faugheen. Slammed Nichols Canyon in a gallop at the Curragh prior to his defeat at Punchestown. That gallop took too much out of him as he was very unfit at the time. The Punchestown race was run at a crawl and the proximity of Wicklow Brave illustrates this. He was fitter at Kempton and won as expected. He runs at Leopardstown on Sunday where even though the ground will favour Nichols Canyon he should still win. I am surprised Nichols Canyon is running giving Mullins's post race comments after his Leopardstown Christmas victory over Identity Thief "he had a very hard race and will be given a long break".
Knock him if you like but he has won a CH and seems to be even better on better ground, a comment that does not apply to either Nichols Canyon or Identity Thief. Arctic Fire is not good enough and the UK challenge likewise. Either back him or stay out!
The reason Douvan is not in the CH is because of Faugheen. If allowed to run with Faugheen out he would win. Douvan jumps well, oozes class and only a fall or mishap can prevent him from winning. It really doesn't matter who takes him on in the race. It is his to lose. Either back him or stay out!
Min will win. Again, he oozes class and jumps well.Mullins has a line into all of the opposition. Tombstone is the danger if there is one but he may not prefer the faster ground at Cheltenham and is probably better over a better trip. Either back him or stay out!
If Annie Power turns up and completes, unlike last year she will win. She is in a different league to this lot. Either back her or stay out!
Limini is the best around by a mile. She won her only race at Punchestown with stones in hand and the race could not have worked out any better. She looked really good that day and not alone will she win this but expect her to win the mares hurdle next year after Annie Power retires. Either back her or stay out!
Vautour only has to jump around to collect. He may still run in the Gold Cup but with Mullins going for Champion Trainer in the UK this is unlikely. Either back him or stay out!
Trained by the master, Enda Bolger, Josies Orders has won both banks races here, has youth on his side and is still improving. He will be very hard to beat.
I see the Champion Chase as being a match between Un De Sceaux and Dodging Bullets. I favour Un De Sceaux but he is a headcase so I'll stay out.
I like Don Cossack in the Gold Cup slightly over Don Poli. The cheekpieces and better ground will help.
The other races are up for grabs but I would be wary of Black Hercules on faster ground as I think he needs it like a bog.
I expect Shaneshill to fall in whatever race he goes for as his jumping has been very dodgy.
Of the others, Bellshill looks good if he handles the faster ground and Killultagh Vic has a big chance wherever he runs. Also Doctor Harper, trained by Pipe would be very interesting in a handicap over 3miles and on better ground as he has been quietly campaigned over trips way short of his best and on very slow ground which should ensure a good handicap mark.
Again, these are just my opinions...
Remember that any profit constitutes value. Pick the horses you think will win because they cannot help what price they will be and be selective!
Happy Punting and Good Luck
arsenalfh reacted to pulsar12 in Liga NOS 2015/16
For this week:
Academica - P Ferreira: Academica has been playing bad, Pacos Ferreira is much better team and their odds are good. Ferreira to win > 2.20
Guimaraes - Porto: Porto performance has been inconsistent, while Guimaraes is a decent team. Guimaraes can win this game, its not likely but their odds are way too high. Guimaraes to win > 7,58
Boavista - Setubal: Boavista is performing very bad. Setubal is playing good football despite latest bad results. Very good odds for Setubal to win! >2,7
arsenalfh reacted to BillyHills in All The Latest Ante Post News For Cheltenham
JLT: Killultagh Vic
We saw a remarkable performance by Killultagh Vic in the Grade 2 Novice Chase sponsored by Coral at Leopardstown today. The result wasn’t a shock as he was the 2/7 favourite but the way he won left everyone in amazement.
As a result of his win he is now the 4/1 favourite for the JLT Novice Chase with Bet365. The yards other horse Shaneshill is 5/1 with Betfred.In the Arkle Chase he’s a 25/1 shot with Skybet and a 16/1 chance with Coral for the RSA Chase.
"That performance was good enough to run in the Arkle but he's possibly more likely to go for the JLT.
"We'll see neared the time and he'll get an entry in all three, the Arkle, JLT and RSA. He has that sort of scope.
"We know he stays but the way he jumps he can come back in trip and if I hadn't Douvan I'd probably say Arkle straight away."
JLT: Killultagh Vic 4/1 Bet365
RSA : Killultagh Vic 16/1 Coral
Arkle : Killultagh Vic 25/1 Skybet
arsenalfh got a reaction from Tipsterix in Monthly Naps Comp Thursday 14th January
3.15 Thurles - Coolnagorna Giggs @ 8/1 Betvictor
Finished a good 2nd last time here at Thurles in first time blinkers and is just 2lbs higher in what looks a race which won't take a lot of winning. Noel Fehily comes over to take the ride on Bitofapuzzle and this is his only other booking on the card. Having his services are another positive over his rivals and off 102 he should be competitive.