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** November Poker League Result : 1st ian309, 2nd muttley, 3rd Burnley Joe **
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arsenalfh

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Everything posted by arsenalfh

  1. 1.55 Cork - Chateau Conti @ 4/6 SkyBet 2.25 Sandown - Finian's Oscar @ 6/4 Bet365 4.10 Cork - Impact Factor e/w @ 16/1 William Hill
  2. 4.10 Cork - Impact Factor @ 10/1 Bet365 The favourite is an odds on Joseph O'Brien debutante which can be taken on at the prices while Keatley saddles the 2nd in the market. He was heavily supported on his debut under rules at Leopardstown over Christmas and ran well behind Ballyward but I think he might have less improvement in him than the market expects. Twomey basically buys and looks to sell horses at a profit so I'll take a chance on his at the prices. Because of that he usually has them spot on first time up and this one cost 41k so could be pretty useful.
  3. 4.10 Cork - Impact Factor @ 10/1 Bet365 The favourite is an odds on Joseph O'Brien debutante which can be taken on at the prices while Keatley saddles the 2nd in the market. He was heavily supported on his debut under rules at Leopardstown over Christmas and ran well behind Ballyward but I think he might have less improvement in him than the market expects. Twomey basically buys and looks to sell horses at a profit so I'll take a chance on his at the prices. Because of that he usually has them spot on first time up and this one cost 41k so could be pretty useful.
  4. I'm doing some statistical analysis on the Portuguese league and have found that Porto are quite reliant on Andre Silva and Diogo Jota for goals. Their midfielders just don't chip in at all especially with Brahimi gone for the month to play for Algeria. Porto tend to dominate and win a lot of set pieces which interestingly makes the two centre backs 3rd and 4th most likely to score in my expected goals model. Sample size isn't that big and my model isn't going to be perfect but at 12/1 I think there's a fair bit of value there. Pacos de Ferreira v Porto - Marcano to score anytime @ 12/1 W
  5. Great stuff there. Any chance of a key for the headings of the table?
  6. Thanks again Graham for all the hard work over the year. Congrats also to John for winning this month's competition.
  7. 2.30 Punchestown - Follow The Sign e/w @ 50/1 Paddy Power Not my favourite Punchestown card but I'll have one bet in the handicap hurdle. Follow The Sign has been chasing recently but things haven't gone too plan and he runs here off 119 back over hurdles. That's 1lb below his last winning mark and his trainer usually does well in these types of races boasting a very healthy 14% strike rate. There doesn't seem to be a lot of pace on in this contest and this one usually races prominently which is another plus as well as the first time cheek pieces. A lot needs to fall in his favour but he'
  8. People get excited when top flat horses go jumping but the majority disappoint in reality. This is probably because they're trained to win Classics, not be improving at 6 or 7 years of age. I think Graham is right in saying that lower rated flat horses are the ones that generally improve more going jumping likely due to the fact they're not being trained to peak at 3 and are aimed to improve through handicaps for as long as possible. I only learned this recently but the reason flat horses stay further over jumps is because there is something about them being able to get a proper deep brea
  9. 3.05 Leopardstown - Exactoris @ 9/1 Bet365 He was poorly placed the last time but made up a lot of ground from the back and meets Bilko 2lbs better off giving him a good chance of reversing that form. Not sure how Clonalig House is shorter in the betting as well given how far he finished behind him the last day and Stretchingthetruth looks pretty short off that mark on what he's done. William B should do better now handicapping and is also of interest given the trainer.
  10. 2.25 Leopardstown - Bull Ride @ 8/1 Betfred Tony Martin has had a poor year and I find his are often over bet so I'll take on the favourite here. Bull Ride is the one I like at the prices. He was behind Charlie Stout the last day who traveled the best but he didn't pull away and won by less than a length in the end. Bull Ride is 2lbs better off at the weights and with the natural progression you would associate with a horse so unexposed you would have to give him a chance of reversing the form and he looks a good bet at 8/1.
  11. 2.30 Leopardstown - Veinard @ 14/1 William Hill Still new to Elliott's yard and is very much on the up. He's a strong travelling type that appears to have been running over too far when looking very much a likely winner before a poor jump at the last over 2m 4f last time. I think the drop back to 2 miles will bring more improvement and he still has a good bit of scope off this mark.
  12. I'm a bit concerned about Daweraan dropping back 2f in trip but he's progressive and has a positive jockey booking going from a claimer to the best around in Ruby Walsh. Because of that you have the best chance dropping back in trip. Fruits Of Glory traveled the better last day and I guess people are making the case for him over the trip but his overall profile leaves a lot to be desired. I'm against the Martin favourite as usual and Tyner also has a poor record in handicap hurdles although on paper they both have chances. The rest look exposed in the main and I think Daweraan can improve furt
  13. Keatley is 3-7 in bumpers and this horse ran well to finish 6th on his debut under rules when coming from last in a slowly run affair where he had no chance. The favourite may be tough to beat but De Bromhead and Harrington have poor records in these races and Mr Champers finished ahead of Joseph's Aeglos the last day too. All of them have horses ahead in the betting and he looks a cracking e/w bet at 25s with an ideal prep run under his belt. 3.30 Leopardstown - Mr Champers e/w @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
  14. Keatley is 3-7 in bumpers and this horse ran well to finish 6th on his debut under rules when coming from last in a slowly run affair where he had no chance. The favourite may be tough to beat but De Bromhead and Harrington have poor records in these races and Mr Champers finished ahead of Joseph's Aeglos the last day too. All of them have horses ahead in the betting and he looks a cracking e/w bet at 25s with an ideal prep run under his belt. 3.30 Leopardstown - Mr Champers e/w @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
  15. Every time I go racing I try to see if my picks are looking good in the paddock but every time I come to the conclusion that they're all looking great. Can't tell the difference between them.
  16. Price is everything. You can identify horses that are going to improve, well handicapped, have their ground and so on but if you don't understand the concept of value you'll never win long term. If you're backing an evens shot ask the question if you think this horse has a greater chance of winning than 50%. If you believe he does go for it, if not stay away. You have to ask this question for every horse you back.
  17. 12.30 Uttoxeter - Theatre Territory @ 11/8 Betfair
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