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Everything posted by arsenalfh

  1. Cheltenham Festival: Day 1 Preview In the Supreme I like Melon. I think it's a weak enough renewal and he'll be underrated because of his inexperience and form when he's probably jumped more hurdles than any of them and is the one Mullins clearly thinks is the best. Mullins is just unreal at prepping them at home and I think it's underrated angle by the betting public. Just look at his record getting horses to the festival to win off long breaks, his record with horses first time out and off long breaks. Whatever he does at home works and I reckon Melon has the beating of the Irish horses
  2. 1.30 Ch: Melon 2.10 Ch: Forest Bihan 2.50 Ch: Holywell 3.30 Ch: My Tent Or Yours 4.10 Ch: Limini 4.50 Ch: A Genie In A Bottle 5.30 Ch: All Hell Let Loose
  3. My god I'm coming round to backing My Tent Or Yours each way. Never thought I would come to that conclusion but the race is so weak that his run behind Annie Power looks the best piece of form. Yanworth has the 2nd best piece of form and should be suited by the stiffer test. Buveur D'air, Brain Power and Petit Mouchoir are progressive but haven't achieved all that much. The latter could well be a triple Grade 1 winner but Footpad got pretty close to him last time, I don't think Nichols Canyon likes Leopardstown and beating Irving in the Fighting Fifth is not Champion Hurdle form. You
  4. Thistlecrack was winning staying hurdles on the bridle putting the races to bed 2 furlongs out. Nothing was able to really test his stamina because the division is so poor. If anything going chasing has made him more aggressive and exuberant. I didn't like the way he failed to extend when winning a sub par King George and I don't think Scudamore was holding onto a lot there to be honest. Again in the Cotswolds Chase he didn't find as much as you would think given the way he traveled through the race. He clearly stays well but given the way he travels through his races I don't think i
  5. FC Porto v Juventus The home side have an incredible record at home in the Champions League and have beaten Bayern and Chelsea at home in recent years. They also may have the perfect style to upset this Juventus side with their aggressive press from the front led by Andre Silva particularly with Bonucci missing from the squad. However I wanted bigger than 3.4 to be backing them against a side like Juventus and the value on the win market looks on the side of Juventus if anything at 2.6. However I've been collecting shot location numbers in Liga NOS this season and Porto's centre half
  6. My mate is always talking up Kenneth Slack. Don't have too many bets in the UK myself but he sounds like a promising trainer.
  7. Sutton Place thrashed Supasundae who has been improving steadily through the season despite giving him weight. That was a monster performance I think and he wouldn't look out of place in a Champion Hurdle. 10lbs well in he could take a ton of stopping.
  8. 1.30 Musselburgh - Soldier in Action @ 7/2 Betway
  9. Wenger beat Conte 3-0 in their only meeting to date as far as I know?
  10. Liverpool are fine I think. They've lost a few cup games but in the league bar the Swansea game they've been pretty good considering they've been missing two key players in Mane and Coutinho recently. Squad depth is the issue for me but now they only have the league to focus on and I expect them to finish the season strongly. This is more a bet because I believe Hull's improvement has been underestimated rather than a bet against Liverpool although I do feel they're slightly underrated in big games but possibly slightly overrated against the weakest sides.
  11. Short priced Mullins favourite here but the odds on market leader makes it a decent each way betting heat. De Bromhead is having a terrific season and does well with his first time up hurdlers so I'll chance his each way at the prices. 1.20 Clonmel - White Lilac e/w @ 17/2 Bet365
  12. Hull City v Liverpool Like I said midweek Hull have improved massively under Marco Silva. Their shot ratio is much better and yet again they were better than a relegation side when getting a draw against Man Utd in Old Trafford. Liverpool are better against sides who tend to come at them more which is why their record against the top 6 is so impressive but have been involved in the two of the four biggest shocks this season at the bookie's prices when losing at home to Swansea and away at Bournemouth. At the prices I think Hull are good value to take something from this game and again I'l
  13. Man Utd v Hull City Hull have improved significantly under new coach Marco Silva and look ovepriced here. Their shot ratio is much better than before and they matched Chelsea at Stamford Bridge up until the final few minutes last time. I don't think the market has caught onto their improvement and I'll dutch the draw and away win here. 0.5 pts Hull Win @ 18/1 Betfair 1.5 pts Draw @ 7/1 Betfair
  14. Liverpool v Chelsea Chelsea have been riding their luck a bit lately converting their shots at a very high rate. Klopp has an exceptional record against the top 6 times losing just once and I don't think that's a coincidence. Liverpool are suited to playing bigger teams much like his Dortmund side were as they tend to have less possession and can use their press to catch teams on the counter attack. Although they have faltered a bit recently they've had to do a lot of squad rotation with cup games and now back with their full first team available (Mane on the bench) I think they're the va
  15. Thistlecrack clearly stays well but from what I've seen over fences I think 2m 5f might be his optimum trip. Still doesn't jump exceptionally well and I think at this stage he's looking a little exposed over fences. His jumping is still iffy and since the Gold Cup was always the plan I'm sure they had him well schooled and forward at the start of the season. So although he's lightly raced I'm not sure if there's more improvement in him unless he drops in trip which is completely out of the question anyway. All aboard the Cue Card train.
  16. Marcano scored this weekend. Worth keeping this up at least until Brahimi gets back who would slot in ahead of the centre backs. Starters from the Moreirense game:
  17. 2.20 Wolverhampton - Costa Percy e/w @ 40/1 Betfair The two favourites in the maiden at 2.20 look a bit exposed to me and I'm happy enough to take them on with Costa Percy. Burke's improve a ton for the run so he should be a nice bit of value. The step up in trip should also suit him well.
  18. 5.00 Newcastle - Chiclet @ 16/1 SportingBet Gracious John might be a solid favourite but at the prices I can't get away from Chiclet who makes the trip from Ireland for Tracey Collins who has a fantastic record on the all weather. With the mares allowance she's 4th best in the field and is also 4th best on RPRs and given the trainer looks a big price at 16s.
  19. Well 16 or 20/1 was never going to happen anyway. Don Cossack retired.
  20. I thought the same after his reappearance but just look at how he absolutely destroyed Coneygree in the Betfair. For whatever reason he didn't run his race in the King George but the talk that Thistlecrack broke him is complete rubbish. From 4 to 3 out Thistlecrack only ran 4L quicker than 152 rated Might Bite despite the latter going considerably faster during the first part of the race. There's no way that is quick enough to ruin Cue Card's race and I believe he just wasn't right on the day causing him to run well below form. He's definitely a better horse at Haydock and Cheltenham too anywa
  21. Cue Card @ 20/1 is so tempting but connections are talking about the Ryanair? Watch him in last years Gold Cup and you can't possibly consider going for the lesser prize. He was cantering before the fall.
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