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Everything posted by arsenalfh

  1. Broke even yesterday with Top Tug placing in the last. Bets: 22 Profit: +86.95pts
  2. Royal Ascot - Day 3 Again it looks like we may have the ludicrous stand side bias on the straight course after watering overnight. The going stick reads - stand: 9.0, centre: 8.3 and far side: 8.6. The stand side reading is pretty much the same as yesterday yet the far side has gone down 0.4 so it's almost as if the clerk didn't water the stand's side. Really amateur stuff going on at what is meant to be the premier horse racing festival in the world. With that in mind and all the principles in the Albany drawn low I think it's worth taking them on each-way with Bet365 going 4 places
  3. 8.25 Bath - Downtown Rebel @ 11/1 Bet365 Hasn't shown much in Ireland in maidens and then first time in a handicap but runs here off 54 and looks the type that might be underestimated by the handicapper coming across the border. Trainer is a positive too and looks worth a shot.
  4. Great shout. Definitely was a bit of value on the day going off something around half the price.
  5. Cheers lads, always nice to share a big winner. I was actually on the train heading into work so couldn't see much on a bad quality stream and really didn't have a clue what was going on especially as the Bet365 app had him down with a black cap. I basically followed a horse with red silks and a black cap that was tailed off and thought I had done my money before the commentator screamed his name when he hit the front a furlong out. Made it all the more sweeter in a way. Not looking likely I'll have much for tomorrow at Ascot but i'll have a look through the card and see if I can pick any
  6. Royal Ascot - Day 3 Just another update for later. The going stick reads - stand: 9.1, centre: 8.6, far: 9.0 and going by the first race the track looks fair although no one went down the middle. I mentioned Jamie Spencer's record on the straight course yesterday and he's just picked up the ride on Bless Him in the Britannia later over the straight mile. He's 35 actual wins to 21 expected given the odds of the horses he's ridden and is clearly a massive positive to any horse's chance on the straight course. He shaped as if the mile would suit last time despite running keen through in
  7. 6.30 Leopardstown - Theobald @ 11/4 William Hill The newcomers Bolger introduces at Leopardstown are usually pretty handy and Theobald is a well bred son of Teofilo with several Group 1 entries. He could take a bit of beating in an ordinary enough looking maiden.
  8. I made a 32Red account the other day and placed one bet. Now I'm trying to have 20 quid each-way on Moritzburg in the 5.00 at Ascot at 80/1 and my stake needs to be sent for approval. The bookmaking industry is quite frankly a joke these days. All firms are interested in is recruiting mug punters for casino games and long accumulators and the principles of balancing the books and taking in large sums to ensure profitable outcomes seem long gone. If 32Red are are not willing to lay 20 quid each-way in a big handicap at Royal Ascot on an 80/1 shot why aren't they offering a shorter pri
  9. 2.30 As: Mcerin 3.05 As: Mirage Dancer 3.40 As: Gracious Diana 4.20 As: Sweet Selection 5.00 As: Lightening Fast 5.35 As: Homesman
  10. I usually bet on the nose but a lot of my bets here will be each-way because the bookies will be offering enhanced places and the handicaps will have 4 places at least as well. This puts massive value on the place part of the bet in a lot of cases. I like this statistical approach too. I used it in maiden races backing trainers that had good records with newcomers last year and it worked really well. I did well enough from my own judgement in handicaps last year but my profit in those was nearly wiped out by my bets in pattern races strangely enough. This season I'm almost betting ex
  11. Royal Ascot - Day 3 As I have the entire week I'll be sticking with the Ward 2 year old in the opening Norfolk Stakes. McErin was beaten the last day but broke a bit slowly and had to use up valuable energy to get to the front. He should be able to get to the front here as European horses aren't so quick from stalls and although he's been running on dirt he has reportedly taken really well to grass. As I alluded to above, Spencer has an exceptional record on the straight course at Ascot but unfortunately I've only dug out the stats now. He's incredibly has 34 wins to 21 expected and is c
  12. Frustrating day with Rain Goddess being touched off in the last by a Spencer masterclass. I forgot how well he rode the Ascot straight course and the stats back this up. Thought Elleval ran well from a bad draw and is one to keep an eye on in the future over a stiff mile on fast ground. No luck with the Ward two year olds but he's got another interesting contender tomorrow. Bets: 11 Profit: -12.05
  13. Have to say I'm a bit concerned about the stand side bias for a few of my selections in the handicaps. Going stick from this morning reads: 8.7: stand 8.5: centre and 8.4 far side. Elleval in 3, Bean Fheasa in 1 and Drumfad Bay in 9 although Rain Goddess has a nice draw. Hopefully the jockeys are aware of this and tack across. How hard can it be to water evenly across the track? The track was very fair yesterday but it's all changed since they added 5mm of water overnight.
  14. 2.30 As: Escobar3.05 As: Happy Like A Fool3.40 As: Smart Call4.20 As: Ulysses5.00 As: Elleval5.35 As: Rain Goddess
  15. Royal Ascot - Day 2 Decent start yesterday and we begin with a strong looking Jersey Stakes on the Wednesday. Le Brivido is a strong favourite as he was just touched off in the Poulains when worn down by subsequent Prix du Jockey Club winner Brametot in the closing stages. Dream Castle and Daban represent the English Classic form and the latter shaped like this drop in trip will suit. However the loss of Silvestre de Sousa is a negative in this case who rode him in the Guineas and is who I believe the best jockey around. Not sure about the strength of the 1000 Guineas but Daban also deser
  16. Good first day but it's a shame that two of my big bets didn't really perform with Nootka Sound being especially disappointing. Thomas Hobson was particularly impressive and easily looks Group race class. Bets: 5 Profit: +2.95pts
  17. Royal Ascot - Day 1 Throughout the season I'll try and keep this thread updated with my bets for the big summer festivals and also a running total to track any profit or loss. First off we have the Tuesday at Royal Ascot which is one of the best days racing around and with several firms offering enhanced places it's worth having a couple of bets. Ribchester looks tough to beat in the Queen Anne but is a short enough price as a free going horse drawn wide. I can't see Lightning Spear reversing the form but Mutakayyef improved markedly last year culminating in some excellent placed eff
  18. 2.30 As: Mutakayef3.05 As: Denaar3.40 As: Alpha Delphini4.20 As: Barney Roy5.00 As: Thomas Hobson5.35 As: Nootka Sound
  19. 4.25 Sandown - Shamrokh @ 25/1 Bet365 Appleby usually improves horses coming from other yards and after being gelded with only a handful of starts under his belt this looks a potentially progressive type who's too big a price.
  20. Any final thoughts before the declarations? Any races you feel may cut up and worth a play ante-post?
  21. 8.20 Leopardstown - Typhoon Rising @ 20/1 BetVictor Lyons has a good record running horses in handicaps first time and although this looks a competitive contest he has a chance off a low weight. South African jockey Steyn takes the ride with Keane unable to do the weight.
  22. 6.55 Hamilton - Ruth Melody @ 9/1 888sport Ran well in a couple of maidens and on handicap debut must have some sort of squeak here in a weak enough contest after making the trip over to Scotland.
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