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Everything posted by arsenalfh

  1. Bets: 37 Profit: +45.95pts No luck at Tramore. Back again tomorrow with bets for York and Killarney.
  2. Tramore August Festival - Day 2 Unfortunately got no time for a write up but have two selections. 5.35 Tramore - 4pts Forever Dylan @ 11/1 Bet365 8.15 Tramore - 4pts Some Day Soon @ 11/2 Ladbrokes
  3. As usual, 4pts on win bets, 2pts each-way.
  4. Tramore August Festival - Day 1 Tramore kicks off today in less than an hour and I have two fancies in the opening beginner's chase on the card. Looking at the exchange odds you'll likely get better value later but since time is running out I'll have to put these up now. Everyone knows how good De Bromhead is with his chasers but the amount of improvement his horses get first time up over fences is often underestimated by the market. He has 22 expected wins to 30 actual wins with horses under these conditions and it's a system well worth following. In an open race they both should go
  5. Bets: 33 Profit: +61.95pts Was away on holidays so missed Galway and Goodwood but with Tramore and York coming up there'll be a few bets over the coming weeks.
  6. Asked for a price on Twitter but got fed up waiting for Bet365. 100/1 is crazy value.
  7. Championship Top Goalscorer Wolves have made numerous eye-catching signings this summer but Portuguese pair Ruben Neves and Diogo Jota look particularly impressive acquisitions. The latter was impressive up front for Porto last season and if it wasn't for Griezmann and Correia who play the same role, he would likely be preparing for a Champions League campaign in the Spanish capital. Although his actual goals scored numbers don't look extremely impressive, a metric called expected goals gives a much better picture of his goalscoring potential. Jota hit 0.53 expected goals per 90 in P
  8. 2.45 Musselburgh - Myboyhenry @ 10/3 Ladbrokes
  9. Hugh Taylor is exceptional on At The Races. Plenty of good tipsters on here however and you'll be able to get on at the advised price.
  10. 6.15 Windsor - Lamb Chop e/w @ 33/1 William Hill Lamb Chop was outpaced before staying on over 6f at Newbury and may need further than the 6f trip here but he's worth chancing at big odds. He's related to some speedy types on his dam's side and his sire Havana Gold has produced some quick and precocious 2 year olds so he might have just been very green on debut. Millman's horses tend to improve a ton for the run and he could outrun big odds here.
  11. 3.00 Newbury - Lady Macapa @ 40/1 Bet365 Made a really encouraging debut for the Cox yard before disappointing 2nd time out. However perhaps that run can be excused as it was her second run in succession on fast ground and she shows a liking to soft conditions. She gets that today and Cox has a terrific record with older sprinters so she might find a bit of improvement here. In these conditions she's no 40/1 shot.
  12. Killarney July Festival - Day 4 Jamie Codd has a fantastic record in bumpers. He's essentially a professional riding in amateur races and has picked up a ride in the finale at Killarney. He's 61 actual wins to 49 expected given the horses he's ridden and is a positive to The Abbey's chances later today. Kevin Prendergast's horses often run well fresh too so this one is worth a bet at big odds. 5.20 Killarney - 2pts The Abbey e/w @ 20/1 BetVictor
  13. 6.05 Sandown - Tahoo @ 10/3 Bet365 Ascot Day has the plum draw in stall 1 but he doesn't tend to front run and Tahoo in stall 3 may take advantage. He makes the running and breaks quickly from the gates. If he can grab the rail and get that positional advantage he could be very hard to stop.
  14. No luck yesterday. Had one for today at Killarney again but now a non runner. Down 20pts yesterday. Bets: 32 Profit: +65.95pts
  15. Killarney July Festival - Day 2 Have a few statistical fancies at the picturesque Killarney racecourse this evening. It's a mixed card with the flat kicking things off before a Grade B handicap chase later on. Billy Lee is probably the best jockey on these shores and he has a terrific record when taking over rides from other jockeys. When using Betfair starting prices he's notched up 128 expected wins under these circumstances but incredibly has 164 actual wins. Lee rides the light raced Cristal Icon here who has ran ok on both his starts in handicaps and looks sure to improve up in
  16. 3.45 Curragh - Gordon Lord Byron @ 20/1 William Hill Gordon Lord Byron looks as good as he has been in a long time running consistently well this season. He's won the last two renewals of this race and with Billy Lee taking over, arguably the best jockey on these shores, he looks overpriced.
  17. Big win for Godolphin taking down an unbeaten Coolmore colt. Harry Angel certainly did that very nicely and shouldn't be inconvenienced by a drop to 5f. Bets: 27 Profit: +85.95pts
  18. Newmarket July Festival - Day 3 Don't think the Diamond Jubilee was the strongest race so giving 6lbs to the 3 year olds makes it tough for them. Although Limato looked unbeatable over a stiff 6f last year he hasn't been running to the same level this time around although he's only had two runs this season. The Commonwealth Cup seemed to be a good race with several progressive types and Caravaggio ran out the winner that day. However on sectionals Harry Angel should have gotten closer to him and Cox has a great record in Group races for horses 3 years of age and older with 31 expecte
  19. Unlucky Dan been done on the final day myself. Great effort and well done Btugero.
  20. 4.50 York - B Fifty Two e/w @ 33/1 William Hill B Fifty Two has tumbled down the weights since joining Marjorie Fife being largely disappointing. However, he's been running on ground quicker than ideal and off a mark 17lbs lower than back in April he might just be underestimated in the betting here after the recent rain.
  21. No luck on the final day but a very good festival overall. Apparently the Eclipse takes place during the Summer Festival at Sandown so I may be back then with some selections. Bets: 26 Profit: +70.95
  22. 2.35 Gowran Park - Dinky Inty @ 16/1 William Hill Now 3lbs below his last winning mark and his last run can be upgraded as he was poorly placed. Low draw is key over 7f at Gowran so he is well positioned in stall 1 and Billy Lee taking over is another positive.
  23. Royal Ascot - Day 5 Final day of a great festival bar the issues with the ground on certain parts of the straight course. Kicking off with the Chesham the favourite September looks hard to beat. I was at Leopardstown the day she made her debut and she could not have been more impressive. However at the prices I like Highlight Reel who is sure to come on considerably for the run coming from the Michael Bell yard. He's 28 expected wins to 32 actual wins with 2 year olds on their second run and the booking of Spencer is a massive positive so I'll chance him each-way. The Hardwicke is a
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