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Everything posted by arsenalfh

  1. Loved this horse to bits. I think it was his run in the Supreme which was what got me hooked on horse racing. He just lit up Cheltenham every year with his exuberance. Fancied him strongly for the Gold Cup last year. Last year's King George was red hot form and the Ryanair is looking pretty good now too. Such a shame he never got to race in a championship race at the festival and we'll always have it in the back of our minds that we never quite got to see him completely fulfil his potential. Sad, sad loss for racing and all of his connections.
  2. I completely wrote him off after his comeback season. Credit to the horse and Henderson for getting him back to something near his best. Will be missed for sure.
  3. Price now may look good on the day but trying to predict Mullins and where he is going to place his runners is near on impossible. They're talking of Douvan possibly for the Gold Cup now that Vautour is out of the equation. Save your cash for when he's declared and you never know what mad price the bookies will offer on the day as they compete for business at the festival.
  4. Cue Card was disappointing in the Charlie Hall and although he should come on for that I don't know if he'll improve much. I would have thought Tizzard would have had him fairly fit first time out just like he did last year. Short price when there's a chance he's not the same horse. Same goes for Coneygree coming back from a bad injury. Lots of rain in the forecast which goes against Irish Cavalier and Menorah. Gods Own looks as good as ever but he'll have to improve stepping up in trip which he may well do. He stayed on well over 2m 4f at Aintree and after all he was a pointer but any rain wi
  5. The first two maidens at Redcar look poor enough. Gosden has the two favourites and it wouldn't be surprised if both won today given those who have run have shown little and the other trainer's runners usually need the run. Gosden is good at readying a newcomer and both boast nice pedigrees. 12.40 Redcar - Peaceful Passage @ 7/2 Ladbrokes 1.10 Redcar - Style And Grace @ 5/2 Ladbrokes
  6. My mate doesn't think they'll train on and he has a point I think. They all seem to be very precocious winning first time out and have been a bit disappointing when upped in class. In his favour a few of his have improved going up in trip which gives you hope of them improving with age. We'll see anyway!
  7. Well if you're beating the Betfair SP you might have a chance of making some money as that value is the most accurate measure of a horse's true chance of winning. However following the money to select a horse that is going to shorten further doesn't sound like a very effective method. Especially when industry prices will already be shorter than the exchange markets close to the off so it will be incredibly hard to tell if the horse will shorten further. I doubt this method would be profitable in the long run but you could give it a go.
  8. Watch out for Henry De Bromhead horses having their first run over hurdles or fences. He has more winners than the odds imply at SP over a big sample so it's worth keeping an eye out for horses with that sort of profile. Looks a good angle.
  9. So you are using categorical variables, like for example a shot from outside the box has an xG of approx 0.03 while one from inside the box in the centre of the goal might have an xG of 0.3? I'm guessing co-ordinates are out of the reach of many of us as we just don't have that data available to us.
  10. I'm very interested in analysing sport using statistics and your work is excellent. I've messed around with xG inputting shots manually from Stat Zone into this system but it takes time and obviously there may be slight errors as I'm using my eyes to input the shot locations. Where do you get your shot location data if you don't mind me asking? And have you developed your own xG system? Great work and best of luck for the future.
  11. 5.20 Gowran Park - Kalisma @ 12/1 BetVictor The favourite needs to step up and he looks a stayer so I don't see how dropping down to 9.5f suits. The next few in the market want better ground and we've had a lot of rain today. Roibeard has a chance if he returns to his Fairyhouse form but his trainer described him as a "fun" horse and he has no idea which side of him will show up. That doesn't inspire any confidence. Kalisma also needs to step up but she should have plenty of improvement in her with only one start under her belt and with concerns about the others she looks good value at do
  12. 7.20 Leopardstown - Cornwallville e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 English raiders seem to mop up 5-7f Irish sprint handicaps and Cornwallville one just put up a personal best when upped to 7f. That race is working out really well and if he builds on that he should be right there. Another positive is his trainer Loughnane who seems like a promising upcoming trainer. Not sure coming back in trip suits Sikandarabad, Kelinni doesn't arrive in the same form he did last year and Time To Reason looks about the right price despite his progressive profile because of the record of Irish trainer's in these races.
  13. 5.35 Down Royal - Twist Of Magic @ 13/2 Stan James I think Twist Of Magic has been underrated a bit in this race. He was behind Joyce Compton last time but was further back than ideal running keen off a slow pace. They should go faster today and a 4lb swing in the weights gives him a chance of reversing the form. Duck Egg Blue and Noble Intention were the ones I really wanted to take on at the top of the market. The former looked as if he won a really poor race on heavy ground last time while Lyons and Keane think that the latter has been poorly treated by the handicapper according to his
  14. 2.20 Redcar - Lady Molly @ 15/2 Skybet This maiden is full of exposed looking types at the top of the market so I think Lady Molly is a great bet at 15/2. She looked green on debut getting no cover and hanging so can be expected to improve especially coming from the Dalgleish yard.
  15. 2.00 Bath - Trumps Magic @ 18/1 Bet365 The favourite has some decent form but this is by far the fastest ground he's encountered so he might not match his best run on soft and can be taken on at odds on. Nothing else has shown much at all so this gives the well bred 67,000 dollar yearling Trumps Magic a chance for Evans who can ready a 2 year old.
  16. Bit stuck with RPRs here and just wondering if anyone could help. Are the figures attached weight adjusted? For example did this horse run 6lbs better on debut than on its latest start? Or did it run 10lbs better because it carried 4lbs more on its debut?
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